On April 8, local time, the U.S. market experienced a triple whammy of stock, bond, and currency losses. In just two trading days, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged from around 3.9% to 4.5%, and concerns began to grow over the liquidity risks posed by hedge fund basis trades. As we pointed out in "Trump's 'Great Reset': Debt Resolution, From Virtual to Real, and Dollar Depreciation" and "U.S. Treasury Quarterly Report: The Second Liquidity Inflection Point," hedge funds may have accumulated $1-1.5 trillion in U.S. Treasury spot holdings through basis trading. Volatility driven by trade tensions could accelerate the unwinding of these basis trades, leading to a bond market sell-off. U.S. Treasuries are at the heart of dollar liquidity derivation (refer to "Financial Cracks in the New Macro Paradigm"), and bond sell-offs can quickly shrink core collateral for short-term financing, causing liquidity tightening. If the debt ceiling issue is resolved in May or June and U.S. Treasury issuance increases, it cou
4/15/2025, 2:36:27 AM