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The macro market has entered a low Fluctuation consolidation phase, the Golden-haired girl pattern has emerged, and the stock and bond markets are slowly rising under steady data. The market's reaction to Trump's new tariff moves has been tepid. The Chinese stock market has performed well, while the US dollar and crude oil have fallen, and emerging markets have shown strong performance. The S&P 500's corporate EPS forecast for 2025 has been lowered, with strong demand for gold and ETH in a predicament. BTC prices are fluctuating, with stable ETF fund inflows. FTX has started repayments, attracting follow.

BTC fell 7.9% against the US dollar this week, from $107,300 to $98,800, while ETH fell 9.2% against the US dollar, from 3.38 thousand to 3.07 thousand. BTC prices surged before Trump's inauguration, but fell after a week of fluctuation. On Monday morning, there was a sharp dumping, possibly related to the sluggishness of US tech stocks. The support level of $98,000 is enough to support a significant pump in the coin price in the coming weeks, with market focus on Trump's inauguration and subsequent executive actions, as US stocks continue to pump.

Jan. 20th 4 pm Hong Kong Time)
107.3 thousand dollars), and ETH rose 5.1% against USD (3.22 thousand dollars
BTC spot technical indicators overview:
The price of the currency has found strong support several times around 92 thousand US dollars, including a brief drop below 90 thousand US dollars but quickly rebounded. It has been rising ever since, ending the week with a breakthrough of 100 thousand US dollars, accumulating enough momentum before Trump's inauguration. After breaking through 100 thousand US dollars, the price of the currency experienced several retracements but then rebounded, refreshing its historical high with a large bullish candlestick before Monday's settlement, at the next psychological level of 110 thousand US dollars.

This week, the cryptocurrency market has been affected by US data and the global stock market downturn. BTC fell 5.8% against USD, and ETH fell 12% against USD. BTC Spot technical indicator shows that a support level has formed after the retracement, and it is expected to pump slowly, but it still needs to be reassessed in the next few days. Implied volatility has gained good support on the January expiration date, BTC skewness continues to decline, and the far-term skewness price still supports upward movement, with slightly complex kurtosis.

January 6th 4pm Hong Kong time)
BTC rose 6.2% against USD (from $93.5k to $99.3k), ETH rose 7.4% against USD (from $3.4k to $3.65k)
Spot technical indicators:
At the end of the 24th year, the price of the currency maintained support at 92,000 US dollars. At the beginning of the new year, we saw the market showing a willingness to buy, and the price of the currency slightly rose towards the resistance level of 100,000 US dollars. This strongly indicates that the market is accumulating strength for the next rise and accumulating long positions on the pullback. We believe that in the long term, the price of the currency will be in the range of 115,000 to 120,000 US dollars. We believe that the short-term price top will be at 100,000 US dollars or slightly higher than 100.

December 30th, 4:00 PM Hong Kong time)
BTC down 1.9% against USD (from $95,300 to $93,500), ETH up 3.0% against USD (from $3,300 to $3,400)
In the past week, although the price trend has been quite volatile, it finally maintained between $92,500 and $99,000, leading to a reduction in the actual volatility (at least the volatility between settlement points). We speculate that the trend will continue in the next few trading days, but there may be fluctuations at the end of the year. At the same time, this longer price adjustment may end before the end of the year and prepare for the next round of rise. The current support level is as low as $92,000, and we expect a further decrease to $90,000.

December 16th, 4 pm Hong Kong time)
104,880 thousand US dollars), ETH rose 1.5% against USD (3,910 thousand US dollars
Spot key technical indicators:
The price trend has shifted from a unilateral correction to a restrained upward movement. We see that the highest price keeps refreshing in a very balanced manner, implying that this round of progress will reach its peak in the next few weeks, with a target price of 110-115.

After breaking through the psychological barrier, the price of BTC experienced a sharp pullback and sustained fluctuation, but the overall sentiment is still bullish. There is buying pressure in the far-end of the term structure, but the spot market demand is mainly concentrated above the price, and it is expected to form a one-sided correction trend. The surge in implied volatility has subsided, and the actual fluctuation rate is difficult to maintain at this level. Despite the significant pullback in the market, the skewness price has remained relatively stable this week, with overall pump.

The possibility of a 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is as high as 85%, and bond yields continue to decline; U.S. stocks hit a new historical high again, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks again; Cryptocurrencies performed strongly, with both BTC and ETH prices rising, and BTC and ETH ETFs have seen positive inflows for 10 consecutive days; The market remains bullish, but selling strategies are still popular, and overall volatility remains stable.

Last week, there was a significant difference in the performance of BTC and Ethereum, with the former dropping by 2.4% and the latter pumping by 6.7%; The Spot technical indicator suggests that the coin price has reached a local peak, and any correction will be relatively gentle, with strong support below potentially leading to lower actual volatility; As the year-end and holiday season approach, it is expected that implied volatility will face further downward pressure and naturally exhibit a steeper term structure; Skewness prices have recovered most of the decline for the remaining time this week, while kurtosis is gradually decreasing, indicating the market's expectation of a slower pumping of the coin price from now on.

The US stock market is performing strongly, with the market breadth still healthy. The plan proposed by the new Treasury Secretary provides relief for the US fixed income market, but its long-term bullish view on gold may have spillover effects on Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency market focus is on Ripple, with XRP showing strong growth, surpassing USDT in market capitalization. The stablecoin market cap exceeds the previous high during the Terra-Luna period, and it is expected that new funds will join, making the cryptocurrency market poised for rapid growth.

The prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) continue to pump, but the actual volatility is gradually slowing down, and the market supply and demand are relatively balanced. If the price breaks through $100-104k, it will further open up the space for the third wave of pump market. Implied volatility remains reasonable in the short term, but there is a greater demand for pump opportunities in the forward market, leading to a rise in implied volatility in March/June. The market's anxiety about downward price corrections is increasing. Overall, the market performance is in line with Elliott's volatility theory.

MicroStrategy successfully exercised the over-allotment option for convertible bonds, with a scale of $3 billion, and Allianz Insurance is one of the main participants. Mainstream institutions quickly launched leveraged ETFs for MicroStrategy, and Assets Under Management surged to nearly $5 billion, but leveraged ETFs are designed to gradually lose value over time. The cryptocurrency market will be highly volatile in the short term. The options market is expected to become an important catalyst for the industry's growth after 2025. Cantor will launch off-chain Bitcoin financing business, breaking through the role of Bitcoin as a balance sheet asset in the mainstream ecosystem. The US market will welcome Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

Concerns about the rise in yields and extreme levels of long positions, as well as hints from the Federal Reserve Chairman of a slower pace of rate cuts, have led to a partial retracement in US stocks. Policies have become the focus of the market, with close attention being paid to the positioning of key positions such as the Treasury Secretary. The cryptocurrency industry is expected to have long-term development, with BTC showing a prominent upward trend and stablecoin market cap rising. The market will face more fluctuations and challenges, and it is necessary to be vigilant about future fluctuations and to implement risk management.

The market is stable, with strong performance in US economic data and high investor confidence, with a focus on the US election. BTC price is approaching historical highs, with inflows into ETFs and record open interest in futures. CME trading has surged, attracting more mainstream and TradFi participants. The market believes that the most favorable outcome for Cryptocurrency is Trump's victory and a Republican sweep of both houses of Congress.

This week, the BTC Spot price has fluctuated between $66k and $70k due to the impact of changes in US election odds. If Trump wins, there is potential for a pump to $77k to $78k, possibly breaking through $74k. If Harris wins, it may break down to a flag-shaped support level between $63.5k and $64k, and further down to $60k. Prior to the election, market demand is mainly concentrated on the upward exercise price between $75k and $80k at expiration, which also supports the level of fluctuation this week.

The cryptocurrency market saw a pump after Trump's victory, with BTC/USD pumping 18.4% and ETH/USD pumping 27.6%; implied volatility decreased while skew remained unchanged; the market is bullish on BTC and set a long-term price target above $100k. Despite possible short-term fluctuations or retracements, the technical outlook still supports bullish sentiment. Considering the potential aggressive profit-taking and pullbacks in the market, $74k-$72k remains a major support level.

Market expectations for interest rate cuts, coupled with continued institutional inflows into BTC ETF, are maintaining an optimistic sentiment in the Digital Money market. ETH has been relatively weak, but recent relative pumps have still become a recent hot topic, touching $2700, but facing strong resistance and currently in a consolidation phase. The Volatility indicator shows that Vol Premium still exists, but one needs to be cautious of the risks in the upward direction. Trading Volume is concentrated in September and late October, reflecting market confidence in short-term price stability and bullish views. However, in late October, the significant demand for the 55k Put has caused a rotation towards the bearish side in the middle part of the curve, becoming the focus of market discussions.