Analyst: Surge in wage data in the third quarter will not change the outlook for the European Central Bank's policy

On November 21, IFR market analyst Divyang Shah said that Europe's Central Bank released data on the negotiated wages of employers and labor representatives in the third quarter on Wednesday, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, higher than 3.4% in the second quarter and 4.1% in the first quarter. Shah said that while this increase is recordal, it should be carefully interpreted: 1) it mainly reflects Germany and one-time bonuses; 2) As wages catch up with inflation, this is unlikely to happen again in the future. In the case of Europe's Central Bank, the bank prefers its own forward-looking payroll tracking system, which suggests a significant slowdown in wages in 2025. In the minutes of its October meeting, Europe's Central Bank highlighted that the payroll tracker pointed to a "slowdown in wage rises in 2025", with survey data showing "a significant deceleration in wage rises in the coming year". European Central Bank's Q3 wage data is not expected to change the policy outlook, with the European Central Bank still leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut at each meeting, with the deposit Intrerest Rate falling to 2.00% from the current 3.25% until at least June 2025.