GoldenOctober2024

On January 30, Jin Shi Data reported that on January 30 local time, the Swedish Minister of Defense announced that Sweden will provide military assistance worth 13.5 billion Swedish Krona (approximately 1.2 billion US dollars) to Ukraine, the largest military support plan Sweden has provided to Ukraine since the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

January 30th, Jinshi Data News, Evercore ISI analyst Krishna

On January 30th, Jinshi Data reported that David Zahn, head of Franklin Templeton's European fixed income department, said that the staff's predictions for economic growth and inflation at the European Central Bank's March meeting will be key to determining the extent to which interest rates may be lowered by 2025. Franklin Templeton expects the European Central Bank's deposit interest rate to drop to 1.5% by the end of 2025 (the current interest rate level is 2.75%). A more accommodative European Central Bank should boost European bonds, especially the short-term bond market.

January 30th, Jinshi Data, Morningstar analyst Michael

January 30th, Jinshi data, according to foreign media analysis reports, the service industry inflation is currently very important, because its stickiness of about 4% is still one of the main reasons why some European Central Bank officials are worried about inflation and are unwilling to adopt more aggressive easing policies. Lagarde has previously stated that the service sector inflation rate does not need to slow down to 2% to be consistent with and maintain at the target level of overall inflation. However, it certainly must drop significantly in order to bring overall inflation back to the target. The first few months of 2025 may be crucial in assessing whether the service sector inflation and overall inflation have fallen. We will get the inflation data for January next Monday.

European Central Bank President Lagarde said that service sector inflation in the euro area remains high, but wage pressures are easing; inflation risks include wage rise and geopolitical tensions; if the economy continues to languish, inflation may fall. The impact of the trade war on euro area inflation is unclear, and greater friction in global trade will make the euro area inflation outlook even more uncertain.

The Fed's policy statement removed references to inflation moving toward the target, showing a hawkish tone. In the future, as the price increase indicator exits, the personal consumption expenditure inflation rate may continue to slow. However, at the FOMC meeting, inflation is expected to move toward the Fed's target, even approaching the target.

January 30th, Jinshi Data: EFG Bank's Chief Economist Stefan

With the European Central Bank cutting interest rates by 25 basis points, the yield on UK government bonds continues to decline. The latest 10-year UK government bond yield is reported at 4.541%. Weak economic conditions in the Eurozone and the European Central Bank's belief in inflation recovery are strong support for the rate cut. Investors expect the European Central Bank to continue cutting interest rates in the future.

Global monetary policy divergences have intensified, with the European Central Bank cutting interest rates again while the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, highlighting the excessive dependence of the global economy on the United States. The growth prospects of European countries remain weak, and political challenges are also unlikely to be resolved in the short term.

On January 30, the Gold Ten data, the German business lobbying group DIHK supports the European Central Bank's cautious approach to interest rate cuts, even as the country's GDP shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, indicating that it is likely to benefit from looser policies. DIHK analyst Volker

Jinshi data January 30 news, market analyst Mark said that the European Central Bank still describes monetary policy as "restrictive" in its statement, even after today's interest rate cut. This indicates that more easing policies are brewing, as almost all officials have indicated that the current goal is to lower the interest rate to a neutral level that no longer restricts activity.

The article argues that the European Central Bank (ECB) chose to maintain its previous guidance after lowering interest rates, which can avoid traders' doubts about its pricing. However, the statement may be adjusted in March. The ECB emphasizes that it will follow a data-driven and gradual approach to its meetings, and will not commit to a specific interest rate path in advance. The market has already anticipated this, so the euro's reaction is relatively moderate.

The European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to boost the eurozone economy, but the inflation rate has risen to 2.4% for three consecutive months. Investors expect the European Central Bank to continue lowering interest rates by 25 basis points until the interest rate reaches 2%. The trade war may further exacerbate the economic decline, leading to a larger rate cut.

Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani, senior economist at the Oxford Economics Institute, said that the economic data for the euro area in the fourth quarter will not alter the current assessment of the European Central Bank. The euro area's economy stagnated in the final three months of 2024, with domestic demand providing support, while net exports dragged on the rise. The ECB's March forecast update may bring more clarity to the path of interest rates, with energy prices, import inflation, and the momentum of the service sector being key factors to monitor.

If the European Central Bank cuts interest rates, Chris Turner expects the euro to fall. The ING Group expects the European Central Bank to cut the interest rate to 1.75% in the second quarter. Turner said that if Lagarde tends to further cut interest rates, the euro to dollar exchange rate may fall to 1.0345-1.0355.

On January 30, Jinshi Data reported that although many setbacks in the recent economic rise come from outside the eurozone, there are also some caused by the eurozone itself. The data shows that due to the political deadlock, which has hit the confidence of enterprises and consumers, and the fading impact of the summer Olympics, the French economy shrank in the last few months of last year. Germany (the largest economy in the eurozone) has experienced a second consecutive year of contraction, dragging down the eurozone, which is preparing to face new challenges in 2025. The latest data shows that the German economy contracted by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of last year, while the third largest economy, Italy, remained stagnant.

Jinshi data on January 30th, according to official data quoted by the Russian Ministry of Defense, about 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers left their posts without permission and fled.

According to preliminary data released by the German Federal Statistical Office on Thursday, Germany's GDP in the fourth quarter declined by 0.2% compared to the previous three months, exceeding expectations. The financial website Forexlive commented that it is estimated that the German economy contracted by 0.2% overall last year, and is expected to shrink by 0.1% in 2023. If this trend continues in 2025, it will mark the first time that Germany has experienced three consecutive years of GDP decline since the reunification of East and West Germany in 1990.