Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Golem (@web3_golem)

At 8 o'clock this morning, the long-awaited Fractal Mainnet finally went live. Fractal adopts a unique Mining mechanism called "Cadence Mining", where every 3 Blocks mined, two Blocks will be exempt from Mining licenses, and the other Block will be subject to merged Mining. This mechanism has given rise to many Fractal ecosystem Mining projects, while also igniting the passion of users to lease Computing Power to participate in Mining.

Therefore, due to the vested interests, MainnetMining output and FB price have become the community's focus of follow. Although the off-exchange price of FB has already pumped to around 19 u, many community members have expressed concerns that renting Computing Power to participate in the initial mining may end up in a loss.

Is this really the case? Is participation in Fractal head mining by ordinary users a prelude to 'Cut Loss' or 'eating meat'? In this article, Odaily Star Daily will briefly analyze the output and benefits of Fractal Mining, hoping to provide readers with reference.

Mining Cost Benefit Estimation

According to the data from the Fractal blockchain explorer, the current Fractal merged MiningComputing Power is about 90 EH/s, and the license-free MiningComputing Power is 10000 PH/s (1 EH/s= 1000 PH/s).

It is known that the current monthly rental price of 1 PH/s Computing Power on the market is between 3000-5000 USDT. Even with the lowest rental cost, calculated at the price of FB 19 USDT, a daily output of 5.26 FB achieves breakeven.

The most widely used calculation method for Mining output in the community is as follows:

Based on an average block time of 30 seconds and two-thirds of the output being exempt from licensing, approximately 72,000 FB coins are produced daily, of which about 48,000 FB coins are obtained through exempt Mining. Therefore, 1 PH/s of Computing Power can obtain approximately 4.8 FB coins per day. Based on the off-market price of FB at 19 USDT, Miners' daily income is approximately 91.2 USDT.

If estimated in this way, renting Computing Power to mine FB will not only fail to make money, but also lead to increasing losses as the overall free license MiningComputing Power increases and the FB rewards allocated per 1 PH/s continue to decrease.

Relative dynamic calculation method:

The above calculation is based on the assumption that the Computing Power continues to increase and the daily output remains the same. However, in fact, although the official average block time set by Fractal is 30 seconds and the daily output is approximately 72,000 FB, the current network average block speed is significantly faster than expected.

As shown in the figure below, Fractal Mainnet mined 2500 blocks in just 10 hours, producing over 62,500 FB. This means that with the increase in Computing Power, the mining speed of blocks is also accelerating. The actual daily output will exceed the previously estimated 72,000 coins.

Therefore, the average block time of Fractal Mainnet during the initial mining period is about 10 to 15 seconds, which means that FB's production today may be between 140,000 to 210,000 coins. Even with the most conservative estimate of 140,000 FB coins produced, two-thirds of them are mined without permission, which is 93,000 FB coins. With 1 PH/s of Computing Power, approximately 10.3 FB coins can be obtained today. Based on the off-market price of FB at 19 USDT, Miners' daily income is about 195.7 USDT.

If estimated in this way, as long as the FB price remains above 10 USDT, players who rent Computing Power to mine FB Genesis Block can still make a profit.

However, this calculation method is only relatively dynamic. Changes in the overall Computing Power of the network, daily output, FB price, etc., will affect the output and returns of Mining. Whether Fractal Mining is worth long-term participation still needs to be reassessed after the network runs stably.

Fractal is still full of challenges

There are still some doubts about the network of Fractal Mainnet, which is online today, besides the widespread discussion on mining profits.

mempool founder posted on X platform that Fractal Bitcoin seems to be a "clone" copy of Bitcoin Core v2 4.0.1, with its premined Token accounting for 50% of the fully diluted supply of Fractal Bitcoin. Miners will need a full two years (a Fractal Bitcoin halving interval) to earn half of the rewards obtained by the founders on the first day. At the same time, Fractal Bitcoin has many meaningless technical terms that only exist in the White Paper, so in his view, it is just another shitfork of (BTC).

There have also been Node issues and long periods of not producing blocks in the network operation, but the team's response speed to the issues is also quite fast, promptly fixing the Node behavior and quickly providing a new Node version.

At the same time, according to the over-the-counter price of 19 USDT, the current Market Cap of FB has reached nearly 4 billion US dollars. Although FB can already be transferred through the Fractal Mainnet, there is currently no DEC/CEX listed FB Token, and user transactions still rely on over-the-counter OTC, which brings low transaction efficiency and opacity, casting uncertainty over FB's future PA.