Original Author: Crypto, Distilled

Original Compilation: DeepTech TechFlow

The biggest trick of the market is to make people think everything is over before the real fun begins.

"A bull market is like sex, it feels best right before it ends." - Warren Buffett.

Here are 7 reasons why the most interesting stage has not started yet.

The Biggest Trick of the Market

Before delving into these reasons, let's first understand the background.

The biggest trick of the market is to make people think it's over before the fun begins, which is caused by the so-called 'wall of worry'.

What is the Wall of Worry?

During a bull market, the market pumps along the wall built by worries and doubts.

Every piece of pessimistic news adds a brick to this wall, determining the nature of the bull market in this tough battle, while worry is the fuel that drives the price pump.

The Wall of Anxiety

Moderate FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) is healthy in a bull market. It keeps some people on the sidelines, and once the skeptics turn into believers, it provides impetus for market rebounds.

Despite $BTC nearing all-time highs, concerns about consumer crypto applications, global liquidity, $ETH ETFs, and alts still persist.

The Biggest Opportunity

How to profit from it? Stay calm in uncertain times, panic will only narrow your vision.

Facing danger calmly can help us seize the moment and discover potential opportunities.

Now, let's delve into these 7 reasons.

More liquidity is coming soon

The main reason why the cyclical peak may not have been reached is liquidity.

With the relaxation of global macro policies, liquidity is expected to surge in 2025.

Increased capital flow typically drives the pump in cryptocurrency prices.

Market ends with a bang

In the final stage of previous bull markets, there will always be an obvious parabolic formation.

Although history may not repeat itself completely, there are often similarities, and we have not yet seen such a climax.

According to @Grayscale, only about 30% of AltCoins have experienced a pump this year.

The Rule of "Banana Zone"

"Banana Zone" refers to a period of asset price surge, which has been reliably observed in past cycles.

This phenomenon is driven by the four-year global liquidity cycle since 2008, and typically reaches its peak in the fall.

Currently, we are in the summer stage.

(Acknowledgment @RaoulGMI)

Performance after Halving

The performance of Bitcoin after halving indicates that there is more room for long and pump.

Historical data shows that macro peaks usually occur 200 days after the Halving.

Currently, the fluctuation after the halving is normal.

(Acknowledgment @RaoulGMI)

Four-Year Cycle Theory

The four-year cycle is like astrology for cryptocurrency, it may just be influenced by the global liquidity cycle and the election season.

If history repeats itself, the peak is expected to be reached in October 2025 (approximately 16-17 months later).

(Thanks @BobLoukas)

Front Shadow Fallacy

Due to the existence of more 'front shadows' in the cryptocurrency market, it seems that the signals of each cycle come earlier.

This makes it easy for people to mistakenly think that the cycle has ended, when in fact the new phase has not yet begun.

The new phase typically blossoms in the late stage of the cycle, with experiments and optimistic emotions.

(Translator's Note: "Front-run fallacy" refers to the phenomenon in the cryptocurrency market where, due to the increasingly early appearance of early signals, people are prone to mistakenly believe that the market cycle has ended, when in fact a new market phase has not yet begun. This phenomenon may cause investors to miss out on later market opportunities because they prematurely believe that the market has peaked or is about to fall.)

Extremely low social risk

The most interesting and dangerous times in the market often come with extreme enthusiasm.

In the first half of 2024, the social risk in the market is very low - the market is not overheated, but rather unusually quiet.

Currently, retail investors have almost no interest in altcoins.

(Thanks @intocryptoverse)

Summary

• The final stage of a bull market is usually the most dramatic pump.
• The wall of worry may give the impression that the bull market is over.
• Liquidity is expected to rise, the banana area may be coming soon?
• The four-year cycle suggests that the macro top may occur in 2025.

Purely educational content, not financial advice.