EMC Bitcoin Weekly Review (6.17~6.23): Short-term liquidation continues, testing the $60,000 mark.

Original author: Shang2046

The information, opinions and judgments mentioned in this report regarding markets, projects, currencies, etc. are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.

The market continues to oscillate between $60,000 and $70,000, in order to reach a new all-time high and repay debts in advance.

Weekly Market

BTC continues its short-term downward trend, falling below $61,000 as of June 24. Last week, we predicted that the market would enter a short-term phase of weak balance and the first to be cleared would be Bitcoin miners. With the pullback in price, more and more miners are selling all of their daily output (maximum supply of 450 coins per day) and even selling their solid inventory.

Unfortunately, liquidation is often accompanied by some level of stampede. Short-term investors who have repeatedly received strong support over the past year (up to $64,000) have not been effectively resisted. After falling below $61,000, the largest adjustment since BTC's historic high is only 8% away from the position of $56,500.

During this period, the news of the German government clearing the confiscated BTC and Mt.Gox repaying investors' BTC is just a bit of negative assistance on the weak market. More importantly, the Fed has continued its hawkish rhetoric, further strengthening the expectation of a rate cut this year. The strong Nasdaq index also experienced an adjustment, with Nvidia falling by more than 5% in a single day.

In a fragile market, every external factor is crucial. But it can be said for certain that the core reason is that the entire market is still paying off the debt for the upcoming historical high. Historically, there have been long adjustment periods before and after the three BTC halvings, and the adjustment after the last halving lasted for more than 6 months. This rapid rise is no exception. The good news is that the market has once again provided investors with an opportunity to get on board calmly.

Supply and Demand Structure

U.S. dollar stablecoins saw inflows of $708 million last week, more than double the previous week. USDT and USDC were at the same frequency, with inflows of $375 million and $333 million, respectively. However, it should be noted that the stock of exchange stablecoin is declining. In terms of ETFs, outflows were recorded in all four trading days of the week, with outflows of more than 100 million in a single day, with a total outflow of more than $500 million. This sell-off is one of the reasons for the downward trend in prices. One point that needs to be corrected is that institutional Holdings account for only about 22% of ETFs, and the market makers are mainly hedge funds. Buying Spot ETF is accompanied by a Short Position Hedging at the CME, which is far from contributing a direct impetus to the long-term pump of the market. At the same time, retail investors with more than 75% of their Holdings have a typical "chasing rising prices and killing falls" effect. All in all, the pump momentum from US ETFs is temporarily sluggish, which will take long enough to digest. In terms Close Position of CME contracts, the backlog remains high at around $10 billion, down more than 10% from the peak. But trading volume has fallen to around 1.7 billion, close to the $1.6 billion trading volume low in early May.

On-chain Data

BTC on-chain data continues to be low, with new addresses and fees income remaining low, while transactions and value transfers have slightly risen, possibly related to the activity of Runes and capitulation and take profit.

EMC BTC Cycle Indicator

According to the eMerge data engine, the bull market index is 0.125, and the market has entered a bull market dormancy period again.

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