Analysis of Meme's Layered Evolution and Fund Rotation

Abstract generation in progress

Author: MONK

Compiled by TechFlow

1.$DOGE -> Medium Market Cap MEME Coin Swap

In my opinion, the performance of Meme coins cannot be separated from DOGE. As the election approaches, $DOGE is getting attention again. I think it would be interesting to analyze how the value in the Meme coin category is diversified. Here are my thoughts. The discussion is as follows:

I believe that without significant pump of $DOGE / $SHIB, it is becoming increasingly difficult to drive the market share of Meme coins. By 2024, the overall market capitalization of Meme coins will rise significantly and approach the All-time high (ATH) of 2021:

This year, most of the value rise comes from the explosive rise of non-DOGE/SHIB meme coins. Currently, the market dominance of DOGE and SHIB has dropped to about 57%:

However, the market share of Meme coin in the cryptocurrency market is still lower than the level when $DOGE reached ATH in 2021. The influence of DOGE cannot be ignored. This week, the total market cap of the asset increased by 7 billion dollars, basically equivalent to a $PEPE + $WIF.

I find the prospect of $DOGE very interesting, even without new retail investor interest. I expect the dominance of $DOGE / $SHIB to gradually rebound. Currently, there is a lot of capital waiting and watching in this round of Meme coin Rebound...

6....These people are intermediate investors who are skeptical about the legitimacy, sustainability, and influence of this category. Or they may not want to participate in trades with low Liquidity and high turnover. Therefore, many people missed the opportunity of $WIF, $PEPE, and $BONK.

However, there has been a significant shift in sentiment regarding Meme coin. The interest in this category is now far greater than a few months ago, and the coverage of $GOAT is a good example. Even self-proclaimed intermediate investors are starting to change their attitudes:

I think these participants may bid for a new round of Rebound for $DOGE. This is the trend I see driving Meme coin and Crypto Assets market share to new heights. Any news could be a catalyst, whether it's a new government agency, Elon Musk, Trump, or other factors.
Most of the funds may come from other areas of encryption. Retail investors may be helpful, because I think $DOGE is even more recognized among ordinary people than $SOL, but the current liquidity environment has changed significantly compared to 2021.

So, what will happen after the $DOGE Rebound? I believe that any strong upward trend in $DOGE / $SHIB will bring additional value to the new 'Meme coin middle class' and unleash the potential for assets like $WIF, $PEPE, and $POPCAT.

For intermediate investors, the relative attractiveness will be higher. When $DOGE's Market Cap is 100 billion dollars, the attractiveness of $WIF will be greater than 30 billion dollars. With the increasing number of meme coins with investable assets of over 1 billion dollars, the risk-return ratio of stablecoins in this post-$DOGE scenario also seems less attractive.
As the MEME coin gains greater recognition as a field, the theory of middle-class re-rating will also attract new potential buyers. Compared to small market cap coins, these assets ($PEPE, $WIF, etc.) have greater Liquidity, lower volatility, and are easier to manage.

After the Rebound of $DOGE, they also have greater upside potential, and I believe that intermediate investors will eventually seize the opportunity to raise the prices of these assets, which is necessary under the current circumstances. I do not think $PEPE can reach a market cap of 10 billion dollars in a stagnant $DOGE market.

Therefore, regarding $DOGE as the $BTC of Meme coin, further pump of assets such as $PEPE, $WIF, $POPCAT needs to occur before the Rebound of $DOGE. I think there is no obvious benefit for Stable Coin investors, and due to the still high entry threshold, small Market Capcoins are still in the rotation phase.
I also see some middle class with potential to upgrade to large-cap stocks (such as $PEPE, which has basically reached this level). Capital will naturally be disproportionately concentrated in high Market Cap assets, because most investors are lazy and like to seek confirmation biases.