Author: CryptoAmsterdam

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

AltCoin bull run is coming? This article will express my views from the following two aspects.

1. Bull markets have different stages, and I believe the bull run of altcoins has not yet begun.
2. Why I think longest people miss out and how I operate it.

Cycle

All assets, in any time frame, will show similar cyclical structures. Pay attention to the weekly cycle, which is what we usually refer to as a bull market on a high time frame.

1. Bull Market
2. Bear market Consolidation Period
3. Doubt Period

Bull Market

The 4th and 5th stages are where the price rises parabolically.

The cycle structure applies to BTC, and you can find the market structure in the Fluctuation of each cycle phase.

• Bull Market = Higher High / Low
• Bear Market = Lower High / Low
• Consolidation Period = Equal Highs/Lows
• Doubt Period = Initial Higher High Point (ms / Trend Breakthrough)
• Bull Market = Higher High / Lower Low

Although you can already identify trends, market structure, and cycle phases, adding a range can make it clearer.

Phase 4 is the breakthrough of the initial peak, a change in trend, and phase 5 is where the bull market sees a parabolic rise.

Regain the Low Point of the Range

To identify phase 4, you can use the setup of regaining the interval low point to capture the opportunity of price rebounding from the downtrend and re-entering the previous trading range. After the price falls below the range (phase 3) and returns above the interval low point (phase 4), the price usually approaches the interval high point again (phase 5). We hope to operate as close as possible to the interval low point.

By combining the cycle structure, market structure, and reoccupation of the interval, you will get a blueprint.

• Understand where we are in the cycle.
• Find your entry point / failure point / target
• Understand the current situation as well as expectations

As you can see, BTC has touched range highs after regaining range lows.

This pattern allowed us to enter the market after the BTC retrace low in 2023, entering the stage of doubt.

What would you think if I told you that, in my opinion, the position of altcoins is now very similar to BTC?

In the first phase of the bull market, it is mainly BTC, and in the second phase, it is the time for altcoins to chase rising prices. The high price of BTC attracts people's attention, and profit and greed will later lead them to focus on altcoins. This transition always happens after BTC reaches a new high.

Altcoins are very likely to start or are about to experience a significant pump for the following reasons:

In history, when BTC rises sharply and reaches a new high, it marks the peak of its dominance. Although BTC may go higher first, the fact is that it has been in an upward trend since this cycle, indicating that altcoins have not yet gone through their bull run cycle.

ETH/BTC is entering the lower range and is in the 4th phase, which is the reversal zone. In the previous cycle, the ETH to BTC trading was in a period of doubt. Imagine what would happen if it enters the 5th phase: the parabolic pump phase. Reversal means the pump of altcoins, and this pump will expand into a broader market.

ETH/USD

When ETHBTC rebounds, I expect ETH/USD to reoccupy the middle range and form a false breakout of the middle range.

Trigger condition: Reoccupy the middle interval and break the market structure and trend line of the lower time frame.

ETH ETF

I am excited about the decision on ETH ETF next week, which is expected to be delayed, but who knows, anyway, I think the market has already priced it in, a potential bearish outcome may have been anticipated and absorbed by market participants, entering a macro reversal area, which is very exciting. The selling of memes may be in anticipation of a trend change?

Regardless, let's get back to the argument about the Altcoin cycle theory.

• The cryptocurrency cycle is already halfway through;
• The first stage is mainly focused on Bitcoin, with a few individual currencies that have outstanding performance;
• In the second phase, AltCoins will catch up and rise.

The altcoin market will reduce PvP (player versus player) competition.

So, how will I operate and why do I think that most people will be marginalized again?

It is important to understand that if you bet on the bull market of altcoins based on the aforementioned reasons (such as the reacquisition of the low point, the cryptocurrency and AI bull market cycle structure, etc.), you are actually betting on the occurrence of a trading setup/structure.

If we simplify this, it means reacquiring the low point of the interval under a high time frame.

• Trigger condition: Reacquire the low point of the interval.
• Target 1: Range high area
• Target 2 based on the cyclical structure: Eventually surpass the high point of the range.
• Failure condition: Accepting below the low point of the range again (indicating a bearish market structure)
• Entry: As close to the range low as possible

This structure appears in any timeframe and should be operated in the same way, regardless of duration. That's where the difficulty lies.

Imagine that this setup is a 1-minute chart that re-enters the range and you enter. Now, in the next 15 minutes (that is, 15 candlesticks), it pullbacks to the range low, which is completely normal and does not invalidate the setup.

Everyone can hold on, and most people may be mentally prepared to increase their position when the price pulls back to the low point of the range.

That's how you should operate this setup; The problem is that this is not a 1min candlestick chart, but a weekly chart.

• Greater decline
• It takes longer.

The problem is:

• People are impatient;
• They want to act;
• When it takes longer, it may result in poor performance;
• Unable to bear the falls;
• Try to do small things within this larger setting;

Overall, the alts market capitalization chart is not an asset you can buy, but it is the basis of my argument about the arrival of the alts Bull Market cycle and the setup/trade I am operating.

• Buy alt coins on retest range lows
• Sell AltCoins at or above the high point of the range.

How do I do it?

I've been buying the dips. My first buy-in was based on a retest of this 0.25 level. In the Bull Market (after a range low deviation and regain), the 0.25 level usually acts as an upper pump Relay into stage 5.

But it also has the potential to fail and fall. The 0.25 setting will be neutralized, but remember: I'm working on the initial macro range low recapture setup, which is still very active. We may just be retesting the range lows, providing an excellent opportunity.

For example, using FET.

This could be painful as it means the overall market will pull back by 30% (or more) again, and there will be more volatility and time consumption. But again, it is important to emphasize that this will not invalidate our main setup.

Pullback Zone: My second buying zone for pullbacks.

BTC failed to flip the 0.25 level in 2021 and retested range lows. (Just like COVID pullbacks in history)