Original | Odaily Planet Daily

Author | jk

Looking at the time point of July 2024, it is widely predicted that Trump winning the US election this year is just a matter of time. From the perspective of the encryption world, Trump is undoubtedly a more pro-encryption figure compared to the current US president, Biden; not only does he get along well with various encryption pros, but he has also chosen a vice presidential candidate who is pro-encryption and made many promises to the encryption industry.

However, there are also dissenters: On July 11th, Arthur Hayes claimed that Trump's sudden interest in cryptocurrency was not sincere.

Hayes said,

Pandering to the young, politically active, and nouveau riche Cryptocurrency community could help Trump win the election. Therefore, Trump is improving his image among Cryptocurrency supporters by saying all the 'right things.' Unfortunately, this emerging political follow has already caught the attention of many in our industry. Politically savvy 'Hot Chicks' are trying to take us home instead of the other way around. These feelings are misplaced. The playboys of Cryptocurrency are not movie stars, but fools standing on the edge of the party.

What frustrates me is that many cryptocurrency experts who should have a better understanding of the situation are now blindly organizing flashy fundraising events for the Trump campaign. They mistakenly believe that Trump is sincere and that as long as they donate enough money, the 'anti-cryptocurrency campaign' will disappear. This is pure nonsense. Trump is a shrewd politician. He will say anything to anyone who wants to be reelected. Once in office, anything related to cryptocurrency will become a distant memory.

So, let Odaily Planet Daily take us back in time: **Trump has run for US president several times, but how many of his political promises have been fulfilled? Especially in the fields of economy and new technology, the proportion of successful achievements in this regard will serve as a reference for Trump's attitude towards the encryption field in a sense.

How much of Trump's campaign promises have been fulfilled?

In his previous election, Trump actually made many promises, and typically serious, public, and frequently mentioned ones are selected in general statistics. According to the neutral website PolitiFact's statistics, Trump has successfully fulfilled about 23% of his promises during his previous presidency, compromised and partially fulfilled about 22% of his promises, but broke about 53% of his promises. This means that in terms of fulfilling campaign promises, the data seems to support Arthur Hayes' point of view.

The proportion of Trump's compliance with promises. Source: PolitiFact

In the field of economy, Trump successfully fulfilled the commitments he made during his last term, which are:

• Social security payments have not been reduced (he did try to cut and break his own promises, but was blocked by Congress)
• Increase tariffs
• Renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement
• drop part of the tax
• Withdraw from TPP

The unfulfilled commitments include:

• Invest in US infrastructure and set up US infrastructure fund
• Let the economy rise at a speed of 4% per year
• Bring industrial back to America
• Reduce federal spending
• Reduce federal debt, drop deficit
• The number of tax brackets for drop has been reduced from seven to three.
• Let China leave WTO
• Build a wall across the U.S.-Mexico border and make Mexico pay for it

Although we can make effective predictions for the future based on this part of the data, it can be seen that some issues that the Trump administration has the full right to achieve have indeed been resolved; however, if it involves deeper economic development issues (such as the US government debt), it is probably not solvable.

What promises has Trump made in the encryption field at present?

Currently, Trump's promises in the encryption field can be summarized as follows: (data sources include CNBC and Bloomberg, etc.)

1. Trump invited holders of his Non-fungible Token series to his home in Florida and promised to end regulatory hostility towards the industry if re-elected;
2. At the Liberal Party National Convention, he promised to release Ross Ulbricht, who was convicted for creating the Darknet market 'Silk Road'.
3. At the same conference, he vowed to keep Senator Elizabeth Warren (who proposed strong regulatory measures for the encryption industry) and 'her henchmen' away from BTC holders.
4. In June, after meeting with several executives from BTC mining companies, Trump announced that if he returns to the White House, all future BTC will be minted in the United States. (This statement should not be considered a firm commitment)

In these few aspects, if the White House has the right to "end regulatory hostility" in a certain way, such as replacing Gary Gensler and releasing Ross Ulbricht, based on previous data, it may indeed be a goal that can be achieved after Trump takes office.

**It is worth mentioning that this is almost the opposite of Trump's own attitude five years ago. In 2019, Trump himself tweeted, "Not a fan of BTC, its value fluctuates highly, just like it's based on air."

Trump tweeted in 2019. Source: Bloomberg