Original author: CryptoAmsterdam

Original compilation: Deep Tide TechFlow

alts Bull Market coming? In this article, I would like to express my views from the following two aspects.

1. Bull Market have different phases and I don't think alts Bull Market has started yet.
2. Why I think longest people miss out and how I operate it.

Cycles

All assets, on any timeframe, exhibit a similar cyclical structure. Focus on the weekly cycle, which is what we usually refer to as a bull market on a high time frame.

1. Bull Market
2. Bear market
3. Consolidation period
4. Doubt Period

(1) Bull market

The 4th and 5th phases are where the parabolic upward pump is.

The cycle structure applies to BTC, and you can find the market structure in the Fluctuation of each cycle phase.

• Bull Market = Higher Highs/Lows
• Bear Market = lower highs / lows
• Consolidation period = equal highs/lows
• Doubtful Period = Initial Higher High (Milliseconds / Trend Breakout)
• Bull Market = Higher Highs/Lows

Although you can already identify trends, market structures, and cycle phases, you can make it clearer by adding a range.

Stage 4 is the breakout of the initial highs, a trend shift, while stage 5 is where the Bull Market appears parabolic pump.

Range lows regained

To identify stage 4, you can use the setting of range lows regain, which captures opportunities for price to fall Rebound from the downward trend and re-enter the previously traded range. After the price falls below the range (stage 3) and returns above the range low (stage 4), the price usually approaches the range high again (stage 5), and we want to operate as close to the range low as possible.

Combine the cycle structure, market structure, and range recapture setup, and you'll get a blueprint:

• Understand where we are in the cycle
• Find your entry point / failure point / target
• Understand the current situation as well as expectations

As you can see, BTC has touched range highs after regaining range lows.

This pattern allowed us to enter the market after the 2023 BTC recovering range lows, entering the doubt phase.

What would you think if I told you that, in my opinion, the position of altcoins is now very similar to BTC?

(Tweet source)

In the first stage of Bull Market, it is mainly BTC, and in the second stage, it is the time of alts chase rising prices. The high price of BTC attracts attention, and profit and greed will later lead them to pay attention to altcoins. This shift always happens after new BTC highs.

Reasons why altcoins are likely to start or are about to experience a significant upward pump:

Historically, when BTC pumped sharply and hit new highs, this marked the apex of its dominance. While BTC may go higher first, the fact is that it has been in an upward pump trend since the beginning of the cycle, suggesting that altcoins have not yet experienced their bull market cycle.

ETH/BTC is entering a range low and is in phase 4, which is the reversal zone. In the last cycle, ETH's trading of BTC has been in a period of doubt. Imagine what the current cycle would be like if she had reached Stage 5: the parabolic pump phase. A reversal means an alt pump, and this pump extends to a wider market.

ETH/USD

When ETHBTC Rebound, I expect ETH/USD to reoccupy the middle range and form the middle range breakout illusion.

Trigger condition: Reoccupy the middle range and break the market structure and trend line on the lower time frame.

ETH ETF

Excited about next week's ETH ETF decision, which is expected to be latency, but who knows, anyway, I think the market is already pricing it in, and a potential fall outcome that may have been anticipated and priced in by market participants into the macro reversal zone, which is very exciting. The sell-off of memes, perhaps in anticipation of a trend shift?

Anyway, back to the alt cycle argument.

• Halfway through the Crypto Assets cycle;
• The first stage is mainly Bitcoin, with some outstanding individual coins;
• In the second stage, the alt will make up for the pump;

The alt market will reduce PvP (player-versus-player) competition.

So, how will I operate, and why do I think longest of people will be marginalized again?

It is important to understand that if you bet on the Bull Market of altcoins based on the above reasons (range low regain, Crypto Assets and AI Bull Market cycle structure, etc.), you are really just betting on the occurrence of a trade setup/structure.

If we simplify this, it is the regain of range lows on high timeframes.

• Trigger condition: Range low regained
• Target 1: Range high area
• Goal 2 based on the cyclical structure: Eventually surpass the range high
• Expiration condition: Accept below the range low again (indicating a falling market structure)
• Entry: As close to the range low as possible

This structure appears in any timeframe and should be operated in the same way, regardless of duration. That's where the difficulty lies.

Imagine that this setup is a 1-minute chart that re-enters the range and you enter. Now, in the next 15 minutes (that is, 15 candlesticks), it pullbacks to the range low, which is completely normal and does not invalidate the setup.

Everyone is able to hold on, and longest people may be mentally prepared to increase the position when the price pullbacks to the range lows.

That's how you should operate this setup; The problem is that this is not a 1 minute candlestick chart, but a weekly chart.

• The lower fall is larger
• It takes longer

Here's the problem:

• People are impatient;
• They want to act;
• When it takes longer, it can lead to poor execution;
• Unable to bear the falls;
• Try to do small things within this larger setting;

Overall, the alts market capitalization chart is not an asset you can buy, but it is the basis of my argument about the arrival of the alts Bull Market cycle and the setup/trade I am operating.

• Buy alt coins on retest range lows
• Sell alts at range highs and above

How do I do it?

I've been buying the dips. My first buy-in was based on a retest of this 0.25 level. In the Bull Market (after a range low deviation and regain), the 0.25 level usually acts as an upper pump Relay into stage 5.

But it also has the potential to fail and fall. The 0.25 setting will be neutralized, but remember: I'm working on the initial macro range low recapture setup, which is still very active. We may just be retesting the range lows, providing an excellent opportunity.

Take FET, for example.

This can be painful as it means that the market as a whole will pullback 30% (or long more) again, and there will be more long volatility and time consumption, but again: it won't invalidate our major setup.

Range Low: My second buy pullback zone.

BTC failed to flip the 0.25 level in 2021 and retested range lows. (Just like COVID pullbacks in history)