Daily News | BTC ETFs Rarely Experienced Outflows Exceeding $500 Million, US Presidential Election to be Announced Tomorrow

2024-11-05, 05:00

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## Crypto Daily Digest: BTC ETFs rarely experienced massive outflows exceeding $500 million, US Presidential Election Still Cautious
According to Farside Investor data, the net outflow of US <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> spot ETFs was $540.91 million yesterday, marking the second largest net outflow of funds since the launch of the ETFs. Fidelity FBTC had an outflow of $169 million, and Ark ARKB had an outflow of $138 million.

Yesterday, the US <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a> spot ETFs experienced an outflow of $74 million, including $31.5 million from Fidelity FETH and $31.9 million from Grayscale ETHE.

**US poll: Harris and Trump have evenly matched approval ratings in key “swing states”**

According to a joint opinion poll conducted by the Congressional Hill and Emerson College, on November 4 local time, the overall support rates of Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Harris and former President and Republican presidential candidate Trump in the key "swing states" of the US presidential election were evenly matched.

Trump has an advantage in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, while Harris has an advantage in Michigan, and the two have tied approval ratings in Nevada and Wisconsin.

**The <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a> White Paper has been published for 11 years**

The first version of the Ethereum Foundation Technology Document - White Paper - has been published for 11 years and was first shared by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin in November 2013 via an email titled "Introducing Ethereum: A Universal Smart Contract/Decentralized Autonomous Organization Platform". According to Gate.io market data, the current price of Ethereum is $2,408.61, with a total market cap of $295.427 billion.

**Report: The prospects for the short-term recovery of Altcoins are minimal**

A well-known research institution has released a report stating that "after 8 months of volatility, <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> almost broke through its historical high last week, but then suffered a severe pullback. We believe that this rebound was initially driven by the narrative of the 'Trump deal', and later affected by uncertainty about tomorrow's US presidential election results. This lack of confidence has also been reflected in the Bitcoin options market.

As election day approaches, the market generally believes that the Republican victory is advantageous to Bitcoin, while the prospect of the Democratic victory appears even more uncertain. The average odds for Trump's victory have dropped from 64.9% to 56%. In the options market, the implied volatility of contracts approaching expiration is unusually low before election day. The calmness of this volatility indicates that investors are watching and waiting for the situation to become clear. However, volatility is expected to surge between November 5 and 8, which could trigger significant market volatility; If there is no fluctuation, it may indicate a deeper level of caution in the market.

There has also been a lukewarm situation in the Altcoin market, with Bitcoin's market dominance exceeding 60%, setting a new cycle high. Whenever Bitcoin experiences a pullback, Altcoins face severe declines. Ethereum and SOL both fell about 12% from their recent highs, while Ethereum fell 40% since its initial ETF rebound. The speculative interest that once supported altcoins seems to have disappeared, reflected in stable funding rates and overall market sentiment. As Bitcoin absorbs most of the funds flowing into crypto assets, Altcoins find it difficult to keep up, and without new catalysts, their prospects for short-term recovery appear minimal.

Even during last week's correction, the overall resilience of Bitcoin since its September low is worth noting. In short, the current market dynamics indicate that the coming week will be very eye-catching. Whether you are a trader, investor, or ordinary observer, the road to election day is destined to be smooth and unremarkable.”

## Market Trends: TROY surged 60% within the day, while FEARNOT and other Trump concept memes rose
### Market Hotspots
TROY surged, with a current circulating market cap of only $44 million. Since the end of October, TROY rose by over 300%. TROY is an old coin from the previous bull market, which has been in a downward trend for the past few years, and its current price has fallen by 90% from its historical high in 2021. Not long ago, the project team announced its transformation into an AI meme, which stimulated a wave of growth. The reason for this is due to the hot concept of riding on GOAT, coupled with the fact that small market values are easily manipulated by funds. The future market remains to be observed;

FEARNOT, TRUMPCOIN and other Trump concept memes are rising, and the US presidential election is about to be announced. The current trend is not very clear, and funds are speculating on small market memes in advance.

### Mainstream Coins
BTC fell below $67,000 at night, and yesterday there was a rare large-scale outflow of over $500 million from BTC ETFs, indicating a strong risk aversion of funds before the US election;

ETH fell below $2,400 and is still below the monthly mid track. After the massive profit taking of Grayscale ETHE is cleared, ETH may have a good performance;

Altcoins generally declined, and there are no sector hotspots in the market. Some tokens with small market caps such as TROY sporadically rose.

## Macro: US stocks collectively closed lower, with the Federal Reserve almost certain to cut interest rates by 25 basis points
The three major indexes of the US stock market collectively closed down, with the S&P 500 index falling 0.28% to 5,712.69 points; The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.61% to 41,794.60 points; The Nasdaq index fell 0.33% to 18,179.98 points. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is 4.31%, while the 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Federal Reserve policy rate, is 4.17%.

Morgan Stanley analyst David Kelly said that if Trump wins the US election this week, the Federal Reserve may pause its easing cycle as early as December. Kelly believes that Trump's expansionary fiscal policy plan will push up inflation and prevent interest rates from falling: "If Trump wins the election, he will adopt a more expansionary fiscal policy, which could trigger a trade war, widen the deficit, and raise interest rates." Kelly also said that the Federal Reserve is almost certain to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in Friday's interest rate decision, even if the election is held before then.

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<div>Author:**Icing**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator:Joy Z.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions. All investments carry inherent risks; prudent decision-making is essential.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
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