Daily News | BTC's Year-end Futures Price Rose to $51,660; Institutions Predict that BTC Will Rise to $50K This Month; The Altcoin Season May Come Again

2024-01-03, 03:40

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## Crypto Daily Digest: The United States implements a new crypto tax policy, BTC year-end futures prices rise to $51,660
According to Cointelgraph, the provisions of the infrastructure bill signed into law by US President Biden have now come into effect, including a requirement to report digital asset transactions worth over $10,000 to the US Internal Revenue Service (IRS).

The bill requires crypto brokers to report personal information of transactions to the IRS within 15 days, including the sender's name, address, and social security number. After the bill was passed, many legislators suggested amending the reporting requirements through additional legislation, claiming that the information required from brokers was difficult or even impossible to collect. The new crypto tax declaration obligation came into effect on January 1st.

The Block data shows that the total trading volume of crypto exchanges reached $1.1 trillion in December. Since September 2022, the monthly trading volume of crypto exchanges has never exceeded $1 trillion.

Steven Zheng, the research director of The Block, stated that the surge in trading activity in December may be due to optimistic sentiment in the crypto industry that <a href="/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> spot ETFs are about to be approved.

Regarding the Bitcoin spot ETF, China's Guosheng blockchain institution has analyzed in an article that the Bitcoin spot ETF is worth looking forward to, taking into account the impact of the gold ETF launch on gold prices. The launch of gold ETFs has a positive impact on gold prices, which has positive implications compared to spot ETFs for special currencies.

It should be noted that the world's recognition of gold is not generated by spot ETFs, and if Bitcoin spot ETFs are approved, it means that the recognition of the vast traditional wealth world compared to Bitcoin and even the Web 3.0 world will further accelerate the integration of the two. This is a process from 0 to 1, with marginal changes far exceeding the approval of gold ETFs.

Of course, on another level, the difference is that the total number of Bitcoins is fixed at 21 million, while gold still has continuous new output. Bitcoin spot ETFs have been approved in the US and are expected to bring in incremental funds. The conclusion calculated by Galaxy Digital is that Bitcoin is expected to rise by 74% in the first year of spot ETF approval (starting from the <a href="/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin price</a> of $26,920 on September 30, 2023); Over a long period of time, the potential funding scale for investing in Bitcoin products ranges from $125 billion to $450 billion.

According to Deribit data, the futures price of Bitcoin at the end of 2024 has risen to $51,660, a premium of 13.7% compared to the current level. It is worth noting that the price was still at the $47,000 level last weekend. The cost of holding long positions or leveraged long bets in Bitcoin also reached a historic high earlier this Monday, as the price of Bitcoin broke through $45,000 for the first time since April 2022.

According to data tracked by Matrixport, the global average perpetual contract funding rate reached a record 66% annualized rate during Asian trading hours. The continuous increase in funding rates indicates that the market is maintaining a bullish sentiment, and traders are optimistic about the upcoming approval of Bitcoin ETFs.

However, high capital rates may become a burden on long positions when the market stops rising, leading to the lifting of long bets and price correction. At present, Bitcoin prices are trading above $45,000, with an increase of over 56% in the last quarter of 2023, due to market speculation that the US Securities and Exchange Commission may approve one or more spot-based BTC exchange traded funds (ETFs). According to Reuters, this decision may be announced as soon as next Tuesday.

In response, Matrixport also posted on the X platform stating that it is expected that Bitcoin will soar to $50,000 in January and may enter the Altcoin season, driven by factors such as the upcoming approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, institutional buying, supply shortages, and historical trends.

Yesterday, Dymension, a modular blockchain network in the Cosmos ecosystem, announced that its Genesis Drop campaign has been launched, with over one million addresses eligible to participate. Users from Celestia, <a href="/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a>, Cosmos, and <a href="/price/solana-sol" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Solana</a> can receive a total of 70 million DYMs, accounting for 7% of the total supply, before 20:00 on January 21, 2024.

## Today’s Main Token Trends
### BTC
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1704268354BTC.png)
Yesterday, Bitcoin retraced to the short-term previous high support level at $44,600 and attempted to hold above the resistance at $45,345 this morning. This week, it is advised to observe whether the support at $45,345 holds for a continued upward movement towards the target of $47,990. For short-term trading, consider entering positions when the price stabilizes above the orange midpoint support line.

### ETH
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1704268518ETH.png)
The short-term four-hour chart saw a second attempt at an upward move, reaching the resistance at $2,381 but failed to hold. In the short term, it is recommended to watch the support level at $2,332. If the price fails to break above $2,489, it may result in a false breakout and a subsequent drop. Long-term outlook remains bullish, with targets at $8,000 and $12,350.

### WLD
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1704268493WLD.png)
Since its low-level positioning at $1.01, it has been hovering at high levels for two weeks, realizing a nearly 300% gain. In the medium term, a pullback to the support level of $3.35 is expected, with a continued upward movement towards the target prices of $5.222 and $5.817. A significant pullback below key support levels may occur before expressing a clear stance.

## Macro: The US economy is still sluggish, with a probability of only 12.9% interest rate cuts in February
On Tuesday, as traders reduced their bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and expected the cumulative rate cut this year to not exceed 150 basis points, the US dollar index accelerated its rise in the European market, closing at 102 levels and ultimately closing up 0.87% at 102.23. The yield on US Treasury bonds surged, with the 10-year yield closing at 3.942%, reaching a new two-week high; The two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rates, rose 10 basis points at one point and ultimately closed at 4.332%.

Spot gold rose first and then fell, reaching a maximum of 2078.73 during trading. Subsequently, due to the suppression of the rising US dollar, it gave up all its gains for the day and ultimately closed down 0.23% at $2058.97/ounce. Spot silver briefly rebounded above the 24 mark and ultimately closed down 0.67% at $23.66 per ounce.

In the context of uncertainty in the Red Sea situation, international crude oil opened high on the first trading day of 2024, with a slight increase of 2%. However, the US market experienced a sharp decline due to the drag of the strong US dollar, leading to a decline within the day. WTI crude oil ultimately closed down 2.03% at $70.4 per barrel; Brent crude oil ultimately closed down 1.3% at $76.19 per barrel.

Due to the reduction of market bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and the drag of large cap stocks such as Apple (AAPL.O), the three major US stock indexes have diverged, with the Dow up 0.07%, the Nasdaq down 1.6%, and the S&P 500 down 0.57%.

In terms of other data, the report released by the US Treasury Department shows that the total amount of US treasury bonds has exceeded $34 trillion for the first time, which is equivalent to the debt of $102,400 per American.

The Markit manufacturing PMI for December in the United States recorded a final value of 47.9, lower than expected 48.4 and the previous value of 48.2. As the number of manufacturing orders in the United States declines at a faster pace, output is contracting again, and the rate of decline in manufacturing employment is the fastest since June 2020. In addition, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model predicts that the US GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 will be 2.0%, compared to the previous estimate of 2.3%.

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Observation," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25% to 5.50% in February is 87.1%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 12.9%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by March next year is 20.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 69.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 9.8%.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:**Byron B.**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator:Joy Z.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>