🥂 Good morning, today is Tuesday, Dec. 13, 2022.

TL;DR

🔹 Monday, the prices of both BTC and ETH remained essentially unchanged, as do the outlook and the S&R zones since Dec. 02. Today’s CPI data will be a catalyst that can potentially disrupt nearly two weeks of outlook.

🔹 All eyes will be on the US consumer price index reading on Tuesday at 13:30 UTC. Last time after the softer data release, the S&P was up 5%, giving the crypto markets a much-needed boost. BTC and ETH’s correlation coefficients with the index stood at 0.03 and 0.12, from -0.64 and -0.52 a week ago.

🔹 The topic of the Day: The 24-hour Capital Outflow of Binance Surpassed $900 Million, and BNB Fell by More Than 5%

🔹 Happenings of the Week: SBF Arrested in the Bahamas after saying he was 'unwilling' to accept subpoena; According to a Reuters report, U.S. prosecutors looking into crypto exchange Binance are split on how to move forward with the case; Tron-backed USDD loses dollar parity as stablecoin dips below $0.97; Twitter Blue sub_script_ion service will be relaunched on Monday at a higher cost for Apple users…

As of Dec. 13 00:23 UTC,

⚡️ Bitcoin (BTC) 24-Hour Change: 17,185 (+1.25%)

⚡️ Ether (ETH) 24-Hour Change: 1,273 (+1.52%)

US Inflation Rate Coming at 13:30 UTC

Monday, both BTC and ETH remained essentially unchanged, as do the outlook and the S&R zones since Dec. 02. For a detailed overview of the critical levels, scroll down to the technical analysis of this article.

US equities advanced with investors gearing up for Tuesday’s reading on consumer prices. The S&P 500 jumped 1.4% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.2%. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year rate around 3.61%. The dollar advanced.

Asia equities on Tuesday are set to open with a positive lead from buoyant equities in the US. Still, futures suggest Hong Kong’s shares may decline amid concern over Covid headwinds for China’s semiconductor industry.

Broader sentiment for China is clouded by Japan and the Netherlands agreeing in principle to at least partially join the US in increasing controls over the export to China of advanced machinery to make semiconductors.

Still, all eyes will be on the US consumer price index reading on Tuesday at 13:30 UTC, which is expected to show prices, while still high, are continuing to decelerate. A subdued CPI print would justify the Federal Reserve’s projected half-point move on Wednesday and shed light on whether markets can expect rate cuts in late 2023.

A cooler inflation reading from the prior month spurred a 5.5% daily surge on S&P 500. This time, JPMorgan Chase expects the index — in a best-case scenario — could rally as much as 10% on a softer CPI reading. BTC and ETH’s correlation coefficients with the index stood at 0.03 and 0.12, from -0.64 and -0.52 a week ago.

Other central banks are also set to announce their final rate decisions of the year this week. The European Central Bank will announce its rate decision Thursday, and may also opt for a half-point hike.

P.S. If you’d like us to cover any specific macro data, or to expand upon technical analysis on your favorite coin, feel free to drop a message in our Reddit community. - Peter L.

💡 Today's Markets at Dec. 12 23:48 UTC

BTC +0.71%; Ether +0.97%.

Asia: Japan -0.21%; Hong Kong -2.20%; China -0.87%; India 0.00%.

Europe: London +0.16%; Paris -0.41%; Frankfurt -0.45%.

US Spot Indices: Dow +1.58%; S&P +1.43%; Nasdaq +1.26%.

US Index Futures: Dow +0.01%; S&P +0.02%; Nasdaq +0.04%.

US Two-year Treasury up 3bps at 4.380%.

US Ten-year Treasury up 3bps at 3.627%.

UK Ten-year Government up 2bps at 3.204%.

US Dollar Index +0.03% at 104.60.

FX in 24hrs: GBP: +0.16%; EUR: +0.14%; JPY: -0.73%; CNY: -0.31%.

Gold -0.86% at 1,781; Brent Crude 0.00% at 76.10.

🧠 Catalysts this week

• Monday: UK GDP, Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
• Tuesday: Australia NAB Business Confidence, UK Unemployment Claimant Count, Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, US Inflation Rate, Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
• Wednesday: UK Inflation Rate, UK PPI, US Fed Interest Rate Decision, US FOMC Projections, US Fed Press Conference, Japan Balance of Trade
• Thursday: China Industrial Production, US Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, ECB Press Conference
• Friday: UK GfK Consumer Confidence, UK Retail Sales

🏦 BTC

BTC Weekly timeframe:

• Major Level: 13,965 (Monthly High of Jun. 2019)
• Closest support zone: 17,090 - 16,880
• Key resistance zone: 17,175 - 17,450

Analysis as of Dec. 13 - Dec. 18 Session.

Note: Since prices remained essentially unchanged, so do the S&R zones. In fact, the same S&R zones have been holding up since Dec. 02, which tells us both bulls and bears are unwilling to inject any more capital than necessary to pump/bring down BTC, perhaps until we have a clearer picture headed into Wednesday.

BTC Weekly Resistance zones

1. 17,175 - 17,450
2. 17,640 - 17,700
3. 17,815 - 18,025

BTC Weekly Support zones

1. 17,090 - 16,880
2. 16,690 - 16,430
3. 16,185 - 16,010

BTC Daily Timeframe:

• Closest support zone: 17,090 - 16,995
• Closest resistance zone: 17,175 - 17,205
• Key Level: 15,952 (Weekly Close Between Nov. 02 - 09, 2020)

Dec. 12 23:17 UTC Update:

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $17,170, or +0.40% in a 24hr period.

Note: Sunday and Monday’s volumes were quite notable. Even though the price of BTC remained essentially unchanged, the volumes indicate there had been a struggle for supremacy between buyers and sellers.

For now, it would seem BTC was bound in a grid between $17,205 - $16,995. The economic data and changes coming from the US this week may be the catalyst we needed to change the outlook.

BTC Daily Resistance zones

1. 17,175 - 17,205
2. 17,370 - 17,450
3. 17,545 - 17,640

BTC Daily Support zones

1. 17,090 - 16,995
2. 16,875 - 16,635
3. 16,300 - 16,010

🌐 ETH

Weekly Timeframe

• Major Level - 757 (Monthly High of Dec. 2020)
• Closest support zone: 1,265 - 1,220
• Key resistance zone: 1,280 - 1,330

Analysis as of Dec. 13 - Dec. 18 Session.

Note: Likewise to BTC, the price of Ether remained stagnant. As of this writing, Ether was trading within the gap between the closest S&R zones and these zones have essentially been the same since Dec. 02.

ETH Weekly Resistance zones

1. 1,280 - 1,330
2. 1,345 - 1,390
3. 1,415 - 1,470

ETH Weekly Support zones

1. 1,265 - 1,220
2. 1,155 - 1,110
3. 1,060 - 1,035

ETH Daily Timeframe

• Closest support zone: 1,265 - 1,255
• Closest resistance zone: 1,280 - 1,300
• Key Level: 1,254 (Weekly close from Jan. 04, 2021 - Jan. 11, 2021)

Dec. 12 23:22 UTC Update:

ETH was trading at $1,273, or +0.87% in a 24hr period.

Note: Ether’s volume on Monday remained insignificant, though interestingly, the price of Ether indicates there were more buyers than sellers.

ETH Daily Resistance zones

1. 1,280 - 1,300
2. 1,310 - 1,315
3. 1,325 - 1,330

ETH Daily Support zones

1. 1,265 - 1,255
2. 1,245 - 1,220
3. 1,215 - 1,195

📌 Today's topic: The 24-hour Capital Outflow of Binance Surpassed $900 Million, and BNB Fell by More Than 5%

According to Nansen data, the capital outflow of Binance in the past 24 hours surpassed $900 million, far exceeding the total outflow of other centralized exchanges. According to Arkham Intelligence's analysis, the fund outflow from Binance reached the highest value in nearly a month, the highest single-day outflow since FTX filed for bankruptcy on November 13.

The specific reasons for the fund outflow may be related to the report released by Reuters yesterday evening that the US prosecutors have collected evidence of the violation of the "anti-money laundering and international sanctions" by Binance, and can immediately file criminal proceedings against several executives, including the Binance founder (CZ). In the report, Reuters mentioned that Binance is under investigation for possible money laundering and violation of criminal sanctions. The relevant crimes investigated include unauthorized capital transmission, money laundering, violation of the Bank Secrecy Act of the United States, etc. In addition, officials of the Ministry of Justice have discussed a possible plea agreement with the lawyer of Binance.


It is also worth noting that in the past 7 days, large market makers such as Jump Trading and Wintermute have transferred a large number of funds from Binance. According to Andrew Thurman, an analyst from Nansen, Jump usually has a large amount of capital inflow/outflow to the exchange, but the current situation seems different from that before. Jump redeemed $245 million of BUSD in the past month, $106 million in the past week, and $30 million in the past 24 hours. He seems to be making great efforts to cash out rather than destroying the tokens again.

Even though the official Twitter of Binance responded yesterday evening that Reuters was attacking its law team, BNB was still impacted by the news of panic and ran against BTC, which had a strong momentum of growth. BNB fell 5.6% in the past 24 hours, reaching $265.83 as low as possible.

👁 Happenings of The Week (Dec. 09 - Dec. 12):

📣 Notables

🔹 Congressional committee confirms SBF as FTX hearing witness on Tuesday, Dec. 13.

🔸 12.10: U.S. prosecutors are reportedly laying the groundwork for a potential fraud case against SBF. In other news, the former Alameda Research head Caroline Ellison hired a former crypto regulator at the SEC to represent her in an ongoing federal probe.

🔸 12.12: Bankman-Fried 'unwilling' to accept subpoena, escalating Senate standoff.

🔸 12.13: SBF Arrested in the Bahamas.

🔹 Chinese authorities have arrested 63 people in association with a massive money laundering scheme that allegedly laundered 12 billion yuan ($1.7 billion).

🔹 The European Parliament’s crypto ally Eva Kaili was arrested following corruption allegations. She has played a major role in shaping policy on crypto assets and blockchain since 2018.

🔹 The UK’s economic chief wants more investment in crypto businesses in the country and endorses work on a digital pound. The 30-point “Edinburgh Reforms” released on Friday morning is looking to vamp up the UK’s financial sector.

🔸 The Bank of England is seeking a proof of concept for a sample wallet for a CBDC and will take applications through Dec. 23. The budget range for the initial five-month contract is 200,000 pounds ($245,200).

🔹 Financial regulators such as the Korea Financial Services Commission and the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) are reviewing a proposal to include "direct approval by the regulator for tokens to go live on domestic crypto exchanges" in the Basic Act on Virtual Assets.

🔹 Argentina has established a National Blockchain Committee to implement a national blockchain adoption strategy. The Commission will be responsible for "acting as an interlocutor in the local blockchain ecosystem, improving the interoperability of blockchain technology", improving transparency in the investment of Argentine public funds, avoiding the forgery of identity documents, identifying other documents issued by institutions, etc.

📣 Dec. 13

🔹 Ex-FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried Arrested in the Bahamas, Bloomberg News reports.

📣 Dec. 12

🔹 Twitter Blue sub_script_ion service will be relaunched on Monday at a higher cost for Apple users. The service is priced at $8/month on the web and $11/month through the iOS app.

🔹 Glassnode data shows that the number of addresses holding more than 1 Bitcoin is at a record high, and the percentage of Bitcoin supply that has not been active for more than 5 years is at a record high of 26.349%.

🔹 China Taiping Insurance launched the first national digital currency account fund loss insurance product. According to the insurance product plan, insurance claims can be made in the event of loss of funds due to theft of personal digital RMB wallet funds or password theft during the coverage period.

🔹 Arthur Hayes: Abuse of leverage was the cause of the liquidation, and the FTX collapse may have caused the cryptocurrency to hit a cyclical bottom. And that Bitcoin is the purest and most tested cryptocurrency. Not sure if $15,900 is the bottom of the Bitcoin price, but once the market stops forced selling, a price bottom will form.

🔹 Decentralized automotive insight network DIMO launches mainnet. The company hopes to save users money on automotive sales, purchases, and services by plying their own data metrics.

🔹 Illuvium releases Overworld as it attempts to bring AAA quality to web3 gaming. Illuvium: Zero could also have an alpha release before Christmas.

🔹 Bitcoin Group agrees to buy centuries-old German bank for over 14 million EUR. Crypto exchange Bitmex planned to acquire the German bank earlier this year.

🔹 The ENS DAO is voting to choose stewards for three working groups. These stewards will oversee the activities of these sub-groups within the DAO.

🔹 Tron-backed USDD loses dollar parity as stablecoin dips below $0.97.

🔹 According to a Reuters report, U.S. prosecutors looking into crypto exchange Binance are split on how to move forward with the case. Binance and some of its executives are under scrutiny for possible money laundering and criminal sanctions violations.

📣 Dec. 11

🔹 According to accounting and financial specialists consulted by The Wall Street Journal, Binance's efforts to improve the transparency of its reserves also exposed red flags in the crypto exchange's finances, citing the report released by the audit firm Mazars lacks information related to the quality of internal controls and how Binance's systems liquidate assets to cover margin loans.

📣 Dec. 10

🔹 Grayscale Investments said the SEC has filed its first legal brief over the rejection of its application for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. ****In the 73-page response brief, the SEC argued its rejection was “reasonable, reasonably explained, supported by substantial evidence.” The SEC added futures and spot-based Bitcoin funds are "fundamentally different products.

📣 Dec. 09

🔹 German VC Picus Capital, known for backing startups such as Nested and Omni, launched picus.xyz, a new web3 investment arm.

🔹 The Block CEO Michael McCaffrey resigned after failing to disclose a series of loans from SBF’s Alameda Research.

🔹 Several news outlets, including the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times, have filed to unveil the creditors of collapsed crypto exchange FTX.

🔹 Three Arrows Capital co-founder Kyle Davies says it wasn’t luna that took it out, but FTX.

🔹 Bancor DAO mulls proposal for self-arbitrage bot to cover $26 million deficit.

🔹 Amber Group, a struggling crypto trading firm, owes around $130 million to troubled crypto lender Vauld's CEO Darshan Bathija.

🔹 Coinbase is offering free swaps from Tether’s USDT to its own USD Coin.

📣 This week’s fundraising activities include but are not limited to:

🔹 Blockchain-free decentralization platform Nillion raises $20 million led by Distributed Global. The project is based on a mathematical innovation invented by cryptography professor Miguel de Vega called Nil Message Compute.

🔹 Crypto insurance firm Evertas raises $14 million in a Series A round led by Polychain Capital. Evertas is a specialist insurance firm for the crypto industry which offers insurance for everything from theft and loss in relation to crime and custody, to more niche services like coverage for malfunctioning smart contracts.

🔹 Digital collectibles company Forum3 raised $10 million in seed funding led by Decasonic.

🔹 Crypto startup Outdefine has raised $2.5 million in a seed round co-led by Jump Crypto and TCG Crypto.

🔹 One-stop shop for NFT trading has raised $1.65 million in a seed round co-led by Infinity Ventures Crypto and Spartan Group.

📣 This week’s on-chain criminal activities include but are not limited to:

🔹 Lending platform on Arbitrum — Lodestar Finance was exploited for about $6.5 million.

🔹 Polkadot Oracle OptionRoom was hacked and all assets in the deployer's wallet were stolen. Over the past few days, OptionRoom has been tracking the ongoing transactions of the hacked wallet and found that the hacker also attacked multiple crypto projects at the same time, and they appear to have transferred the stolen funds to Binance and other exchanges.