Daily News | Bitcoin Fell Below $40K, Ethereum Fell More than 5%, Grayscale Sold Wildly, Musk's "X" Platform May Adopt DOGE Payment

2024-01-23, 04:24

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## Crypto Daily Digest: Grayscale Crazy Selling, Musk's "X" Platform May Adopt DOGE Payment
On the evening of January 22nd at 14:44 (UTC) pm, according to on-chain analyst Ashes Monitoring, 20 minutes ago, 15,456 BTCs (approximately $629 million) were transferred from the Grayscale Trust address to Coinbase Prime. Since the approval of the BTC spot ETF on January 10th, Grayscale Trust has transferred a total of 69,799 BTCs ($2.9 billion) to Coinbase Prime during the opening time of the US stock market for six consecutive trading days starting from January 12th.

Based on the comparison between the net outflow value of GBTC on the first few ETF trading days and the number of BTCs transferred at the opening of the next day, it is likely that the number of BTCs transferred on the chain to Coinbase Prime at the opening of each US stock trading day at the Grayscale trust address is the value corresponding to the net outflow of GBTC on the previous trading day.

According to Grayscale's official website, Grayscale currently holds 566,973 BTCs worth approximately $23.21 billion. Since the approval of <a href="/uk/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> ETFs, their holdings have decreased by approximately 52,227 BTCs, valued at approximately $2.14 billion. Meanwhile, iShares (Blackrock) holds 33431 BTCs worth approximately $1.37 billion; Fidelity holds 24,857 BTCs worth approximately $1.02 billion; Bitwise holds 10,152 BTCs worth approximately $415.6 million.

According to Gate.io market data, Bitcoin has fallen below the support level of $40,000 and is currently trading at $40,026.23, a 24-hour decline of 2.67%. Meanwhile, <a href="/uk/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a> is currently trading at $2,340.48, with a maximum decline of 5.89% and a current decline of 3.78%.

Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the crypto market has seen a total of 91,947 people sell out of $253 million in contracts across the entire network. Among them, multiple orders sold out $217 million, and short orders sold out $35.4123 million. By currency, BTC has a liquidation of approximately $73.3801 million, ETH has a liquidation of approximately $64.6819 million, and SOL has a liquidation of approximately $15.0911 million.

Regarding this, Arthur Hayes posted on the X platform that he holds a pessimistic attitude towards the future price trend of Bitcoin, and that Bitcoin prices may fall below the $40,000 mark. To this end, he bought a put option that expires on March 29th and has an exercise price of $35,000. Hayes also speculates that the decline in Bitcoin prices may continue until the quarterly refinancing announcement by the US Treasury on January 31st. As early as January 5th, Arthur Hayes predicted that Bitcoin may face a 20% - 30% pullback in March, if spot ETFs have already started trading with a larger pullback.

Since the conversion of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Fund (GBTC) to ETF earlier this month, investors have sold over $2 billion worth of funds. According to private data reviewed by CoinDesk and two sources familiar with the matter, a significant portion of this was due to FTX's bankruptcy liquidation selling 22 million shares, worth nearly $1 billion, reducing FTX's ownership of GBTC to zero. In theory, since FTX has completed a significant sell-off, the selling pressure may be reduced, as bankruptcy liquidation is a relatively unique event.

Like many large crypto trading entities, FTX utilizes the difference between Grayscale trust stock prices and the net value of underlying Bitcoin assets in the fund. According to a document dated November 3, 2023, as of October 25, 2023, FTX held 22.3 million GBTC worth $597 million.

On the first day of trading in NYSE Arca on January 11th, the value of GBTC held by FTX rose to around $900 million, with a closing price of $40.69. The file shows that FTX holds stocks of five Grayscale trusts (as well as nearly 3 million shares of a fiat currency trust managed by ETF provider Bitwise) in a brokerage account at ED&F Man Capital Markets (now renamed Marex Capital Markets Inc.).

On-chain analyst Ali (@ali_charts) stated on the X platform that, except for Grayscale, all Bitcoin spot ETF issuers purchased over 86,320 BTCs at an average price of $42,000, with a total investment of $3.63 billion. This indicates that these experienced institutions have a strategic and long-term view of buying Bitcoin, rather than buying at high points.

Musk has a new move on his side. According to Fintechs.fi, Elon Musk's "X" app recently launched an "XPayments" account on social media, sparking widespread speculation in the crypto community. At present, the number of followers on Payments (@ XPayments) has exceeded 100,000.

The market speculates that XPayments may integrate crypto payments, while the community speculates that they may support BTC and DOGE payments, which could completely change the digital finance landscape. Since Musk acquired the platform for $44 billion in 2022, transforming "X" into a global financial center has been his strategic focus.

Although Musk emphasizes that the main focus of "X" is on traditional fiat currency transactions, this has not diminished the curiosity of the crypto community about the potential role that digital currencies may play in the "X" ecosystem. In pursuit of a dominant position in the financial sector, X has obtained currency transfer licenses in several states and has partnered with eToro to enable users to directly trade cryptocurrencies and stocks within the application.

In terms of data fluctuations, according to on-chain analyst ai_9684xtpa monitoring shows that the ONDO project is suspected of selling 20 million tokens, causing a short-term decline of about 13% in ONDO. Three days ago, the address starting with 0x415 received 50 million ONDO (worth $10.97 million) from the ONDO multi signature address, and transferred 10 million tokens to Gate and Kucoin respectively three hours ago.

According to on chain data, the unlocking of INJ (Objective) tokens has been completed and is now in full circulation. As of the time of publication, INJ has temporarily reported $34.55, ranking 29th on the crypto market value ranking. Previously, on January 21st, Injective unlocked 3.67 million INJs, accounting for 4.33% of the circulating supply.

## Macro: Gold continues to fall, Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will still cut interest rates in March
On Monday, the US dollar index fluctuated in a range above the 103 level, ultimately closing up 0.09% at 103.32; The 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen slightly, falling below the 4.1% mark during trading and ultimately closing at 4.107%; The two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rates, closed at 4.393%.

Spot gold continued to decline, hitting the $2,030 mark multiple times during trading, but failed to break through. Eventually, it narrowly avoided the 2020 mark and closed down 0.38% at $2021.81 per ounce. Spot silver plummeted significantly before the European and US markets, falling below the 22 mark during the trading session and ultimately closing down 2.29% at $22.09 per ounce.

Due to disruptions in oil supply from Russia and the United States, international crude oil may rise by over 1%. WTI crude oil rose significantly during the US session and briefly returned above $75, but later gave up some of its gains and ultimately closed up 1.61% at $74.57 per barrel; Brent crude oil once returned to the $80 mark, but failed to stabilize above this level, ultimately closing up 1.54% at $79.86 per barrel.

The three major US stock indexes collectively closed higher, with the Dow Jones Index up 0.36% and the S&P 500 Index up 0.22%, both reaching new closing highs, while the Nasdaq rose 0.32%. NVDA. O's stock price once exceeded $600, reaching a new historical high.

In recent days, as Federal Reserve officials have refuted market expectations for a significant rate cut this year, the likelihood of a rate cut in March has significantly decreased to about 37%, but Goldman Sachs still insists on a rate cut in March.

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said that the Federal Reserve is moving towards its goal of achieving a soft landing for the US economy, and the March interest rate cut is "reasonable."

Hazos said in an interview on Tuesday, "the Federal Reserve is moving towards a soft landing, although it may not necessarily happen, I like what I see."

He said Goldman Sachs believes that the Federal Reserve will relax policies in March as it will align with the trajectory of consumer prices, and last month Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expressed willingness to cut interest rates before inflation returns to 2%.

And another global trading strategy director at Goldman Sachs, Joshua Schiffrin, also stated that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in March, with a total of four cuts this year, and inflation will reach the Fed's 2% target.

The trading director who accurately predicted a soft landing for the US economy last year stated in his 10 forecasts for 2024 that he expects similar measures to be taken by central banks in Europe and the UK, but the Bank of Japan will go against this trend and start raising interest rates in April.

Although risky assets are generally expected to bring returns this year, Schiffrin warns that the first half of the year will be difficult as the market will experience drastic fluctuations in betting on the timing and speed of the Fed's interest rate cuts. He suggested that investors look for opportunities in emerging markets such as Türkiye and recommend buying Chinese stocks against the trend.

"The first half of 2024 will be a different year from the past four years, and the market will show a fluctuating range of market trends without significant trends," Schiffrin wrote in a memo to clients. "The central bank's easing will dominate the storyline, but as it has already been priced a lot, it may be difficult to trade."

For the entire year of 2024, interest rate swaps point to a total of 135 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while Schiffrin's forecast is 100 basis points.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:**Byron B.**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator:Joy Z.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

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