The Logic Behind the Recent TRB Soaring and Falling

2023-09-20, 03:42

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![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1692587449analysis.jpeg)
## [TL；DR]: 
Tellor is second only to Chainlink in terms of market value on the oracle track, with its advantages being more decentralized and its business in a stable operating cycle, without significant new narratives such as technological innovation or financing activities.

Due to the continuous contraction of TRB spot volume, bullish investors continue to buy, leading to a synchronous increase in the trading volume of the futures market, and the fund rate has been in a highly negative state.

The main trend of this bull market is that the bulls have absorbed more than 30% of the spot market, coupled with high futures funding rates and futures positions far exceeding spot positions, resulting in a strong TRB cycle.

Investors should comprehensively and systematically analyze market conditions by combining large amounts of data on the chain, futures trading volume, and changes in holdings, to make reasonable investment decisions.
## Introduction
The persistence of hot spots in the current stock market is often very short, but the popularity of TRB tokens has been consistently high recently, with an increase of up to 4 times in the past half month. The fund rate has continued to approach -3% and its perpetual futures trading volume has exceeded ETH at one point. What are the forces behind this dramatic rise? This article will provide a deep interpretation of this.
## No New Narrative in TRB Fundamentals 
Teller Tributes is a decentralized Oracle oracle network platform launched in 2019, committed to encouraging an open and unlicensed data reporting and validation network, ensuring data transparency and authenticity.

Presently, the system implements a mining and token issuance model that combines POS and POW. Miners not only need to make node staking, but also complete the POW puzzle challenge. The first 5 nodes to find the answer submit data and receive TRB token rewards. The system utilizes controversial miners' network competition to solve the POW problem, monitoring user data requests on the chain, and monitoring and receiving data requests off the chain.
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/16952016379571695180991_.pic.jpg)
Source: tellor.io

TRB tokens have many uses, and miners participating in mining need to stake at least 1000 TRBs. Meanwhile, project teams using the protocol also need to use TRB payments. They are also used for mining rewards, voting governance, dispute compensation, and network security.

The current total supply of TRB tokens is approximately 2.49 million, with a circulation of 2.48 million. The annual inflation rate remains at 17%, and it is currently in full circulation.

Overall, Tellor is second only to Chainlink regarding market value in the oracle track, with its advantages being more decentralized and its business in a stable operating cycle. Currently, there is no significant technological innovation or financing activity.
## TRB Cash Face Spot Driven Futures
When observing the online transfer activity, it can be observed that there was a large amount of online transfers on August 21st, which reached the highest level of activity and amount since this year. By the morning of the 26th, there was a significant increase in futures trading volume and holdings, with futures holdings skyrocketing by over 90%.

According to Lookonchain's monitoring, since August 30th, a blue whale (0xCcE7300829f49B8f2E4AEe6123b12DA64662a8b8) has accumulated 872600 TRBs (currently worth $116 million) from various exchanges, accounting for approximately 34.5% of TRB's current circulation.

Taking the derivatives data on the morning of August 26th as an example, the futures trading volume of the token increased by 151% and the futures position increased by 93% within 24 hours. The large account position is long, and the account long short ratio is 0.96, indicating a large number of retail investors short.

The influx of these short-term funds, as well as the rise in futures trading data, has pushed up the coin price in the short term, effectively matching the rise in the spot price of the token at the time node.
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/16952016909581695181005_.pic.jpg)
Source: Gate.io
 
It is worth noting that due to the continuous contraction of TRB spot volume, bullish investors continue to buy, leading to a synchronous increase in the trading volume of the futures market, and the fund rate has been in a highly negative state.
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/16952017089591695181025_.pic.jpg)
Source: Gate.io
 
Due to multiple parties gradually pushing up the coin price and obtaining high capital settlement fees in the futures market, this income is used to maintain the high spot price, indirectly driving up the market, causing a gradual increase in futures short positions and entering a continuous positive cycle of upward trend.

The on-chain data further confirms this analysis, as of August 13th, short-term investments accumulated 91130 TRBs, and by September 13th, this number had skyrocketed to 1.9 million, an increase of up to 2096%.

Under this "perpetual motion machine" positive cycle, the trading volume of the TRB futures market even exceeded the trading volume of ETH futures at one point, directly pushing the trading volume of BTC futures.
## TRB Future Outlook
Overall, the main trend of this bull market is that bulls have absorbed over 30% of the spot market, coupled with high futures funding rates and futures positions far exceeding spot positions, resulting in a strong TRB cycle.

Compared to tokens such as CYBER, BLZ, RUNE, and LPT that have maintained a weekly market trend in the past, TRB has continued to rise for more than 20 days without any positive fundamentals, indicating that the price increase of TRB tokens is mainly driven by short-term funds.

Although the market may be affected by short-term funding, in the long run, this surge is not due to organic growth in the basic value of the Teller network. The pullback from September 16th to the present indicates that this investment overheating sentiment is beginning to return to calmness.

In summary, the market is still in a state of stock game towards incremental recovery. Short-term funds easily drive some project tokens, but the persistence of FOMO sentiment without fundamental support is not easy to predict. Investors should comprehensively and systematically analyze market conditions by combining large amounts of data on the chain, futures trading volume, and changes in holdings, to make reasonable investment decisions.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:**Peter L.**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator:Joy Z.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

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