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JPMorgan Predicts BTC Long-Term Price of $150k
01 January 08:00
[TL;DR]
Putting a figure to BTC's long-term price is quite complicated; however, market experts will still do it. Just over a year after JPMorgan strategists predicted the long-term cost of BTC to be $146,000, they have upped the figure to $150,000. It comes after traders had expected BTC price to hit $100,000 before the end of 2021.
Even though Wall Street experts may want to display a level of authority in the subject of price determination, BTC price history has proven to be volatile. Some experts predicted the bitcoin price in 2020 will rise to $100,000; instead, it fell to as low as $9,000. At the tail end of 2021, traders predicted bitcoin price to hit $100,000; however, it went down from its November all-time high price to about $40,000.
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Last year, analysts were blown off their seats by the bearish run the Bitcoin market underwent. However, the question remains, will Bitcoin hit $100k? Experts still maintain optimism that Bitcoin will hit the $100,000 mark. Some even opine that Bitcoin will never again go lower than the $40k mark.
In this post, we will review the factors in consideration behind the BTC price prediction from JPMorgan.
Market Update - bitcoin price Prediction
Earlier this year, Bitcoin traded for less than 50% of its all-time high price of $68,000; however, it has since resurged into the $40k mark. The fall came less than six weeks after hitting an all-time high price, and this kind of price action indicates the level of volatility in Bitcoin. Speculators still have a high level of optimism that Bitcoin would hit $100,000 in 2022 as JPMorgan strategists have estimated a BTC long-term price of $150,000.
Investing in Bitcoin should be done with caution. Traders with experience in the system should understand the cycle of ups and downs. Investors should not be excited about bitcoin price predictions in the same vein. "Experts propose, and the market disposes" has always been the case with Bitcoin price. Looking at bitcoin price history, you see that the coin has somewhat had a mind of it of its own, defying expert opinion on every angle.
Let us review the bitcoin price history from 2011 to date.
2011- Bitcoin sold for $1 in April and hit $29 by July; investors went on a profit-taking run leading to a bearish run for the remaining part of the year. Bitcoin went on a cycle of ups and downs in 2012, as nothing consequential happened.
2013- This year was very eventful for Bitcoin as the coin started trading at $200 in January and hit $1,200 in December.
2017- It was another eventful year for Bitcoin traders. The coin went from $900 in January to $19,000 in December to an all-time high.
2018- By January 2018, Bitcoin fell to $6,000, and the coin went through another cycle of ups and downs between 2018 till 2020.
2020- At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, bitcoin price in 2020 hit $6,000 and closed the year at about $29,000.
2021- Bitcoin went on a bullish run in 2021, with its market capitalization hitting $1 trillion. By April, the coin hit $63,000, went through a cycle of ups and downs, and hit its all-time high of $68,000 in November 2021. The price movement raised traders' hopes, with some traders speculating the coin to hit $100,000 by December. However, the currency went below $50,000.
2022- The bearish ending from 2021 continued into 2022, with Bitcoin shedding more than half its all-time high price. The bearish run surfaced with the Omicron variant of COVID-19 that affected economic activities worldwide.
Going by the price chart above, you see that Bitcoin takes a deviation from assessments of its predicted price. For example, the CEO of Brave New Coin, Fran Strajnar, was convinced in 2020 that Bitcoin would hit $200,000 before the end of the year. Another expert Bobby Lee speculated that Bitcoin would hit $333,000 in 2021 and fall back to $41,000 in 2023. Antonio Trenchev, the co-founder of Nexo, was convinced that the bitcoin price in 2020 would hit $50,000; however, the actual price fell almost 50% short of that value.
Pessimistic views about the coin came from people like Peter Schiff, who opined that Bitcoin would fall to $1,000.
With the actual reality-defying expert opinions, it seems like the high expectations are borne out of the Bitcoin frenzy. However, some of these predictions thrived on economic factors, not because the analysts felt good. In the next section, we will review the factors behind JPMorgan's forecast.
Why JPMorgan predicts BTC long term price of $150,000
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, source: CNBC
In 2021, JPMorgan predicted a BTC long-term price of $146,000, while they assessed the fair value of BTC to be $35,000. JPMorgan considers Bitcoin an overpriced commodity; hence they release a figure which they term the "fair value of BTC." After reevaluating the fair value of BTC to $38,000, JPMorgan strategists upped the predicted long-term price of BTC to $150,000.
Reports are that the bank assessed Bitcoin as 4x more volatile than gold hence the fair value of $38,000.
Author: Gate.io Researcher：M. Olatunji
Disclaimer:
* This article represents only the views of the observers and does not constitute any investment suggestions.
*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all other cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
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