Long-term Bulls: Axie Infinity (AXS) Aims for $5 Price Target

2023-09-05, 08:23

[TL; DR]

Since the altcoin market crash in August the AXS price has remained very low.

Many Axie Infinity whales are holding on to their AXS tokens anticipating a price rally.

AXS has failed to rally above $5 since it is currently trading between $4.65 and $5.02.

Introduction

Axie Infinity has been undergoing a difficult phase for the past 18 months due to a decline in the number of active users and the subsequent falling of AXS price. As a fact, Axie Infinity’s AXS is one of the largest gaming tokens on the market.

Despite operating above $10 in the first three months of the year its price has fallen below $5. However, the market is anticipating that its value will rise above $5 in the near future.

AXS’ Previous Price Movement

Understanding an asset’s previous price movement can help us to predict its future potential. As mentioned above, the price of AXS hovered above $10 during the early months of the year.

Around mid-July AXS tried to break above the $7 resistance level, something which could have pushed its price towards $10 again. Nevertheless, due to the high number of sellers its price momentum weakened and it dropped.

For the greater part of the second half of July the AXS price ranged between $5.00 and $6.50 and it displayed signs of base formation. Nevertheless, during the mid-August period its value dithered to the lower range which triggered a further price drop.

Since the third week of August the bulls have prevented the AXS price from falling below the $4.50 support level despite the week’s altcoin market downturn. On the other hand, AXS whales had been buying the dip for the rest of August which prevented its price from falling further. What is yet to be seen is whether or not the action of the AXS investors will force a price rebound.

Axie Infinity Whales Provided the Lifeline

The price of AXS would have fallen below $ 4.50 had the whales not provided the much-needed liquidity. Santiment, an online data analytic firm, shows that the AXS whales, especially large institutional investors, propped the AXS price during the previous week. The following graph depicts the fuller details.

Whale Transaction Count, August - Santiment

As you observe on the diagram, the Axie Infinity holders increased AXS trading activity soon after the altcoin market tumbled on 17 August. The number of AXS whales that traded the token increased from 1 on 17 August to 5 on the 21st.

As you might know, the whale count is a metric which tracks whale trading activity through aggregating daily transactions that exceed $100,000. Basically, such large transactions increase liquidity in the market which results in efficient ution of orders and better prices of the assets. If the transactional activity of the whales remains constant the AXS price may keep on fluctuating above $4.50 and target $5.

Long-Term AXS holders Maintain their Positions

According to AXS’ Mean Coin Age data, indicated in the next diagram, most long-term AXS investors have been holding onto their tokens, hoping for better price movements. To confirm that, between 6 and 23 August, AXS Mean Coin Age increased by about 100% from 15.49 to 31.01.

AXIE Infinity Mean Coin Age - Santiment

In simple terms, the Mean Coin Age measures the confidence that exists among long-term coin holders of an eco such as AXS economy. We obtain it by calculating the number of days that a coin or token in circulation has spent in its current wallet addresses.

If the mean coin average increases during a price downtrend it means that most investors are willing to hold on to the cryptocurrency as they await a better price. A decrease in the mean coin average indicates that most investors are willing to bail out. The current figures show that the long-term AXS holders are willing to hold their tokens in anticipation of a price recovery.

AXS Price Prediction: Potential Erosion of $5 Resistance

The AXS price prediction is generally bearish which is in line with the current trend in the crypto market.

Despite its bearish outlook some major technical analysis tools indicate a high possibility of a price rally. For instance, during the last week of August the MACD indicator was rising, showing that the price might increase within a short period.

Another key indicator, the relative strength index (RSI), which had a reading of 27 during the last week of August, showed a potential of an upward price rise. This is because it was close to the oversold zone. With a strong upward momentum, we could see AXS price increasing towards the $5 resistance level.

During the last week of August, the In/Out of Money around Price data also indicated a potential AXS price rise. With that, if the price reacts positively to the whales’ buying pressure there may be a rebound towards $7. However, resistance may rise due to the activity of the 82 wallet addresses that purchased 534,830 AXS tokens at an average price of $5.12.

Nonetheless, if the price falls below $4.44 which is a critical support level, it may slip further down towards $4. As anticipated, the 16 AXS holders who bought 97,660 tokens at the maximum price of $4.54 may offer much support which may prevent it from a free fall.

Current AXS Price Performance

At the time of writing, crypto investors can buy AXS, a gaming token with a market Cap of $611,623,878 and a circulating supply of 131,031,811, at $4.66. However, its price has dropped by 3.86% within a day and by 3.40% during the last week. As the monthly chart shows the Axie price has been falling gradually since 14 August.

AXS Price - CoinGecko

As The Graph depicts, the price of AXS fell from $6.12 on 12 August to $4.77 on the 18th. From that time, it has been ranging between $4.65 and $5.02.

Conclusion

Although AXS maintained a price above $10 for the first three months it traded below $7 for the greater part of the year. Its value is currently fluctuating within a narrow market channel between $4.65 and $5.02. In spite of its poor market performance many investors still hold it, hoping for a change of fortune.

Author: Mashell C., Gate.io Researcher

*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.

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