Time quickly comes to the Mid-Autumn Festival, happy holiday, family reunion 🥮
I have been going for follow-up visits to the hospital for the past 10 days. This trap machine has been repaired and maintained, costing several W. It seems that I can make a big move again in the next few years. 😂 It's all because of drinking...
Now that the market has reached this point, I wonder if everyone has established their own Position. Looking back, the trend is similar to the prediction on August 5th. Up to now, the market has chosen the yellow line, providing an opportunity for long-term entry. I placed an order at 51 to 53 and entered about 40%. I have also bought a lot of altcoins that I like. If you have been paying attention to the comments section, you may have seen my personal opinions on many fren's inquiries. If you have taken action, you should already have some part of your Position.
There is more than 1 day to go until 918, and everyone is very close to the interest rate cut meeting. It is undeniable that the topic of the interest rate cut meeting has been hyped up to now, and many people engaged in finance, economy, and self-media have expressed countless opinions, some say that the Bull Market is over, some analyze the collapse of the dollar, some advocate BTC400,000, and some are ready to do a big job...... All beings have their own belongings, but what is the meaning for you? As an ordinary small sucker, there is no need to analyze so many macros, I personally think that under the logical premise of organizing your own information sources and judging the trend of the next year, you should be clear about your investment personality, calculate how much money you have, calculate how much time you have, calculate what risks you can take, calculate how much income you want, plan when you will enter the market, and plan when you will leave the market. Think about how many clubs you can go to after winning, think about how much cynicism you can accept after losing, everything, go through your mind, you should be worthy of this Bull Market, and you should be worthy of your own.
This may be the most important thing.
Looking back at the candlestick chart, whether it's from the daily candlestick or the hourly chart, Large Investors are holding the line very tightly, understanding human nature and the game. The expectation of a rate cut has already been fully priced-in and the market has digested it in advance. The uncertainty lies in which one will be chosen between 25 basis points and 50 basis points. The probability is now 50%50%, which is why we are so indecisive at this Node. Looking at the hourly chart, it's also time to make a decision. I have said in the comment section that we should try not to speculate on the market and not to pay too much attention to the news. In fact, most of the market in the past few months has been junk time if you don't play contracts or quantification. If you firmly believe that BTC can break through 100,000, then you need to find opportunities to enter. If you firmly believe that BTC still has one last fall, then you need to be prepared accordingly. If you want both, then you need to spend time and cost to grow yourself, learn to filter information, explore patterns, find resources, pay for mistakes, and then eat the short-term swing trading parts of the market. The fundamental reason why retail investors find it difficult to make money is that they want both. They envy others when they see others making money, but rarely reflect when they see others losing money. Many people are not used to thinking, and they have not figured out how to do this thing after entering the circle. Originally, there was not much money, and they were not self-conscious about their emotions, chasing rising prices and selling with bearish market, making small profits and big losses.
Actually, I also came over like this. After losing a lot, I reflected, and then naturally understood. The reason why I always say it's difficult to play this round and ask everyone to lower their expectations this year is because the ETF has been approved. With the intervention of big capital and tycoons since the year before last, our era of small scattered gods has long ended, relying on their many clever brains and super Algorithm machines. Many years ago, the crypto world did produce countless myths of wealth and highly individualistic godlike figures. However, now, looking across various major platforms and self-media, these kind of great gods are becoming fewer and fewer, and those still active in the circle are actually very few. Either they have made enough money, or they haven't made any. What you see now may be the persona supported by the platform, or perhaps a wolf in sheep's clothing, or maybe a professional artist making a living from this. In the era of AI prevalence, what you see may not be real at all, not to mention what you hear in the group. Do you still remember the picture of the old man Jiang Guoqing a few days ago? I can't understand it either. Surprisingly, some girls in certain groups actually believed it...
Okay, typing late at night, too much nonsense. Let's talk about the market. 75% of the overall Position has been established, and the remaining 25%, I am prepared with three plans to face 918. Because there will be three more rate hikes in the future, and rate hikes will always be accompanied by Fluctuation in the news. If the rate is cut by 25 in September, I predict it will rise first and then fall. According to the current daily candlestick, there is a high probability of returning to the range of 51k to 53k, and I will buy more if it happens. Starting from 54k, I will place small orders with a small Position. As for the 48k I mentioned in the comments section before, the probability is not high. If it happens, I will go all in.
If the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points, there is a high probability of a rapid rise, and even a new high is possible. However, it is unlikely to surge ahead in one go, so the remaining Position will be entered after stabilizing at 62k to 63k, and ultimately it still depends on the Candlestick.
As for AltCoin, I bought 8 and 9 before and after, but I separated different amounts of funds, some are optimistic, some are speculative, and the biggest Position is in ETH, so I will find an opportunity to talk to you in the future. AltCoin is still the time to build a Position, as long as it is not a big amount of money that affects your life, compared to the young model of the club in the future, this Fluctuation is really nothing now, I hope to see 10 times the coin.
Finally, speaking of why there are few updates, first, I was sick and didn't fully recover. Second, I tried to quit smoking many times, but failed. I feel less and less motivated to write. Looking back on the journey of more than two years, it is indeed somewhat magical. I never thought that the unintentional actions back then have now become the source of my energy. I never thought that I would stop updating for so long, and some friends are concerned. I am very grateful. Although sitting in front of the computer typing doesn't bring much income now, sometimes, spiritual civilization can still give people the power to move forward.
Seize this bull run, no matter what everyone has experienced in the past few years, cherish this opportunity rationally, for both you and me, it will be fine if we can get through it.
ps: I don't know what's wrong, I made a few tables and pictures, but I can't send them 😒 It's been a long time since I've done any painting, it would be great if you could see them.
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