When writing this article, BTC is falling and altcoins are also falling. Looking at the comments section, I know there are many frens who feel uneasy. Today, exactly one month ago, we experienced a similar market situation. On the evening of November 23, there was a retracement, and on the evening of November 26, it gradually recovered from the fall. BTC hit new highs several times, and altcoin currencies experienced soaring prices. But today, one month later, most of our currencies are back to the prices of a month ago. At this time, the market's pessimism began to spread again. The bull has left and this Bull Market is over...

Did the bull run end? In the conclusion of the article on the 18th, I wrote: There's really no need to be afraid, the bull is still here. On the 23rd at 23:26, facing the current market trend, I will still say this: There's really no need to be afraid, the bull is really still here.
As an amateur KOL, there is actually some psychological pressure once the number of followers exceeds 10,000. It's not about fear of being proven wrong, but rather about the concern that some of my judgments may affect the trading ideas of some newbies. As for the trend of BTC, I personally think that the market has already shown a clear pattern, and both the stage of the daily chart and the candlestick shape indicate that there will still be oscillations and washing of chips at this stage, in conjunction with the news to clear long positions and take chips. Don't think that falling below 100,000 means that it will only go down to 95,000. Once 95,000 is reached, the subsequent pessimistic prediction will be 85,000, 77,000, 68,000, and so on.
This is the market sentiment that capital likes to see the most. They are clear that retail investors will not have a clear and firm judgment on the direction. Perhaps they have it in their hearts at the beginning, but when they encounter these red and green fluctuations, they forget. So I always say, market sentiment is two-sided. For us traders, it's best not to follow the crowd, try to maintain independent thinking, and have the ability to make decisions for ourselves. You can't just follow what Guru A says 'fall', what Big Brother B says 'rise', and what Sister C says 'neither rise nor fall'. And then look at the WX group a few more times. If the group all says 'fall', then you will think that the next market trend will fall. If the group thinks it will rise, then the next market trend will rise. This is not trading, this is cultivating your neurotic red-green syndrome, especially in the Bull Market phase with overwhelming news. Too many voices are not a good thing.
Whether writing articles or making judgments, others can talk without any cost or consequences, but what really affects is the real money in your account! Analyzing market trends and making trading decisions is a threshold that you cannot avoid in the cryptocurrency circle. If you want to achieve good results through trading in the cryptocurrency circle, you must break through it. Avoiding or dodging, you can never escape. No one can help you with this unless you have a grudge against money and are irresponsible with your own money.
This dynamic always emphasizes some points: giving a fish is not as good as teaching fishing. Everyone enters the circle at different times, with different understanding abilities, and different factors such as position control, the true cost of holdings, and the proportion of funds.
Different cognitive differences will definitely be created, and the direct result is that everyone's returns are different when facing the same market. I cannot give you the ability to judge correctly every time you operate, but perhaps I can influence your courage to actively experience and learn.
After all, trading is not a one-time thing, and you won't only spend one day in the cryptocurrency circle. After entering this circle, there are only two paths: most people will lose all their money and leave, while a small number of people will grasp the patterns and survival methods and accumulate wealth in this industry. If you really want to engage in this industry, not as speculation but as investment, then look further ahead. Four years is not a cycle, eight years is.
Digressions aside, let's talk about the market situation. The current market pullback is manifested in Powell's hawkish rhetoric, but the essence lies in the uncertainty of the number of rate cuts next year. Not only the crypto market, but also the three major US stock indexes have experienced different degrees of falls. Coupled with the lack of liquidity in the market during the Christmas period over the years, it is not impossible to continue to maintain a volatile consolidation at this level, or even a retracement to test the support line at 88K. Do you remember the phenomenon mentioned before? In the past six months, there has been a fall at the end of each month, followed by a gradual rise at the beginning of the next month. Perhaps this time, it will continue, but in the second stage of the bull market, the magnitude of the rise and fall will be much greater.
In the current market, BTC has not fallen below the EMA200 bull-bear dividing line. The indicators on the weekly and monthly charts are relatively positive. It doesn't really have much impact on those old frens who hold most of the spot chips at low prices and have a relatively reasonable position ratio. Take myself as an example, I lost more than 400k in the past week, and the capital loss was in APE and SATS (two small position coins bought in early December), but other holdings are still okay, still in a floating profit. This is the benefit of being able to find a reasonable entry point and hold low-priced chips. When you can roughly estimate the end point of the future, the current amount in your account is actually not important.
Unless you are currently making a short-term profit or holding a position in leveraged contracts, or borrowing money, when the market continued to rise in late November...
In the first few years of my cryptocurrency trading, I liked to read news to interpret the market, believing that the market was driven by the news. But now I have gradually realized that most of the market trends actually occur in conjunction with the news. As ordinary traders in the secondary market, we always understand the market's interpretation of the news through the numbers on the market. However, the real determinant of market trends is still the smart money and large capital behind it. News does not affect the market, but the market often affects the news. I don't know if you can understand this sentence. If you can figure it out, perhaps in the future, your mentality will be relatively more relaxed when trading.
Does the news have an impact on the market? Of course it does, but its impact is not decisive. Many times, we hear that a certain market surged or fell sharply due to a certain piece of news, but this is actually from the perspective of retail investors. If we only look at it from this perspective, we often end up facing losses, because by the time the news is released, the market has often already moved. In my opinion, the rise and fall of the market is not mainly determined by the news, but more by the stage the market is in.
How to judge the market phase? From the perspective of Zhuang family, we must understand the three links of absorption, relay adjustment, and distribution and shipment. In different market phases, news is always used with tricks. You must have heard of such rhetoric as all good news turns bad and all bad news turns good. It's all the same thing, said by the big capital! Can't you see through it? I won't go into further details here. As long as you experience the market a few more times, even if you don't buy or sell, just record your feelings with pen and paper, you may also figure out some of it.
So many previous dynamics have told you that replay is important and self-cultivation is the most important.
It's late at night, and it's quite exhausting to write a status update. The year-end is approaching, but the business is just so-so, and there are a lot of miscellaneous things to deal with, all because of the general return to poverty. I'm also worried about funds.... Finally, let's simply respond to a few comments in a way that everyone likes. This is just a personal opinion, not necessarily correct, so please refer with caution.
Is the bull market still there? If so, we can expect to see BTC at around 150,000 and ETH at around 10,000 next year.
2. When can we see it? BTC should be in April or May, after all, BTC broke new highs in this halving cycle and took the lead. It's hard to say for ETH, but historically, the market in the first quarter has been good.
3. What altcoins do you like? There are too many altcoins, and it's impossible for all of them to flourish. If you seek stability, choose the old main chains and DIFI old coins that have already emerged. If you seek high returns, choose new coins in the MEME, AI, and RWA tracks. The risks and returns are directly proportional. The easiest way to distinguish is that if the current price, even after a pullback, is still 200% higher than the price on November 6th when it started at a low, it is excellent. An increase of 100% still has potential. If it is lower than 50%, you need to think carefully, unless the narrative theme is very hot. As for returning to the starting point, it's a bit mysterious.
4. How to track sector rotation? Sectors rotate and rise because there is insufficient funds in the market. If there is plenty of money and few coins, they would have all risen already. So it is better to reduce desires as much as possible, choose leading projects, select coins with higher circulation rates, and listen to fewer stories and dream less.
5. What's good in the meme track? In this round, the meme coins are seen in the order of SOL>ETH>BNB>BTC>other public chains, but it is not recommended to have a large position, the risk is really high. I generally don't have a positive view on the second-place coin from the previous round, such as SHIB. It's not that it's not good, but I think I can find coins with better price increases. Why waste funds and time on it? When buying altcoins, you should have the mindset of a player, not putting too much faith in them. Ultimately, people have to take responsibility for their own understanding.
6. Can you bottom out now? Don't always think about the bottom. No one can accurately tell you what the bottom is. Look at the market with the perspective of the rearview mirror, everything is reasonable. So at this stage, the main thing is to look at yourself. Every retracement in a Bull Market is an opportunity for you to get on the bus. If you dare to rush, you will get in. Pragmatism will be more practical, perfectionism will kill you.
7. Has the Bull Market really ended? Even if you take profits and exit now, no one will laugh at you. Making money is your own business, don't worry about what others think. However, personally, if the Bull Market is over, how will figures like Elon Musk and institutions like Bitmain face the world? Betting on the future of the United States is better than believing in cancerous stocks that are far ahead.
8. What should I do if my current coins have not yet broken even? They have been said to have good themes before! Many experts recommended them. Either continue to wait, or decisively switch, or give yourself a slap in the face, but don't hesitate anymore. For many coins, it may really surge for 1-3 days at some point next year, but can you escape? Will you be too greedy to escape? Or how many other money-making opportunities have you missed because of this, you have to consider it yourself. If you don't understand, go and see examples such as EOS and BCH.
9. What price can the XXX coin be accepted? If its current price continues to fall by 50%, can you still believe that it will rise to more than double your entry price?
10. Will it continue to fall? How much will it fall? If I could answer you accurately, I wouldn't have to sit here writing updates. The correction of altcoins this round has also exceeded my expectations. Looking at it from a different perspective, the chips I bought during the major correction in early December were not at the lowest price! Remember these words, market trends are a matter of probability, preparing for different scenarios is a personal issue, adjusting positions is a skill, and being fully invested means waiting for next year to exit.
Okay, I'm tired. Goodnight. It should be another 10 days or so before the turbulence is over. Hang in there!
Merry Christmas Eve and Merry Christmas!