Author: 2898

Twitter: @punk2898

Didn't expect it, someone still remembers last year's short essay, big pump 10 times before 2049, what were everyone talking about?

The mainstream voice of the market is the external manifestation of market sentiment, so what we need to follow are those non-mainstream and harsh viewpoints

Outline of this article:

big pump before 10 times, are people optimistic about 2049?

What non-mainstream views have become mainstream?

Which beautiful hopes have not been realized instead?

It seems that GPT is the best person to analyze the market?

The text begins.

**一、****big pump前的 2049 大家情绪乐观么?

First, let's take a look at everyone's overall emotions last year. Were the judgments correct?

1. 60% of participants hold a cautious and optimistic attitude towards the trend of BTC

Result: Completely wrong

2. Investment and Technology: Token2049 is a platform for capital docking, not a gathering place for technological innovation

Result: completely correct

3. Market Cycle: The BTCHalving cycle is only a small cycle. The real big cycle is from the birth of the industry until now, that is, the 'opportunity and risk of the 'retail investor cycle of quantitative easing in dollars' with the 'spotlight effect of the Bear Market', that is, once a certain application erupts, it will easily attract capital follow.

Result: half right and half wrong

2. Which Non-mainstream Views Have Become Mainstream?

The mainstream voice of the market is the external manifestation of market sentiment, so what needs to be followed are those non-mainstream and harsh opinions.

Both non-mainstream viewpoints proposed last year by Jocy@IOSGVC @JinzhouLin have been verified

1. Despite the Bear Market, some companies (such as zkEVM) still have made significant strides in technology.

Last year's zKEVM technology iteration nurtured public chains such as ZKFair and Merlin; afterwards, Zhuge Liang said, this foresight exploded

**2. The AI track has become an aggressive track for the American Crypto Fund to bet on.

DePin&Al, which started at the end of last year, is one of the most dazzling tracks in this round of the bull market.

Looking forward to the insightful comments from Jocy laogeo in this round

The special point of view proposed by Will Wang @willwangtf is very interesting, and his "dollar quantitative easing retail investor cycle" is very accurate in hindsight.

**1. The BTCHalving cycle is just a small cycle, and the real big cycle is from the birth of the industry to now, the "dollar quantitative easing retail investor cycle", whether it can evolve into a market with a higher proportion of institutions needs to be followed.

Now everyone is waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates while moving their small benches

2. There is a general lack of long-termism and foundational trust in the industry, but too much focus on infrastructure may lead to 'aesthetic fatigue'.

At that time, L2 was not yet widely used, and now everyone is discussing where it should be applied?

Although long-termism may miss out on short-term glory, rational wind will blow from the past to the present, earning long-term and stable returns.

encryption韋馱 @thecryptoskanda this is a blast, but it's interesting that it hits the mark completely, just in an unexpected way.

1. Excellent Buidlers and Degens are essentially the same group of people, with different goals and means. The former aims to get rich in the Bull Market by increasing valuations, while the latter strives to profit through being played for suckers.

2. In the next round of the market, all pure investment architecture CryptoVCs that identify themselves as institutions will no longer exist, including the AC company where the author is located.

In this round, everyone is criticizing VC coin, while VC is criticizing the dumb buying of leeks, as you wish for this prosperous world.

Godot Godot @GodotSancho non-mainstream views all hit

**1. ZKP, modularization, Intent+AA have received follow, but have not been widely applied yet.

Modularization has been repeatedly hyped in the previous bull market

**2, AAWallet and gas-free chains may be the key to solving the usage threshold problem.

Now AA Wallet applications are becoming more and more common, and there are already very mature AA Wallet service providers.

3. "The bear market has a spotlight effect", that is, once an application breaks out, it will be easy to be followed by funds. **

inscription, MEME both verify this point

Three, Which beautiful hopes did not come true instead?

We have high expectations, but reality tells us time and time again that there can be high expectations, but reality is very complicated.

1. If the BlackRock ETF application is successful, the scale of the circle may rise significantly.

No, BTC has risen, but the scale of the crypto world has not risen significantly. Does the continuously unlocked VC coin count?

2. If BTC and Ethereum are able to take on new historical missions and narratives, their value may be recognized anew.

Bitcoin has a new narrative, while Ethereum is caught in a narrative drought; Vitalik Buterin becomes Little V, V cuts

**3. Although Layer1 has not achieved widespread Consensus, there may be Alpha returns from the divergence.

No new L1 has emerged.

4. From a 'metaphysical perspective,' Friendtech touches on a certain essence of the prosperity of the crypto industry, namely a unique relationship of trust.

FT single-handedly debunked this track.

Although Web3 has the potential to subvert Web2, the disruption may be more difficult than expected due to the problem of incumbency and interests. Incumbent stakeholders cannot complete a self-revolution.

Web3 does not have the ability to overthrow Web2, but Web2 is already dead (Web2 has no financing).

6. Due to the strict regulation of the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) in the United States, blockchain talents and projects in North America are flowing away, making Singapore a more attractive option.

No.

Four, it seems that GPT is the best person to analyze the market?

The above non-mainstream views were all filtered out by GPT, which seems to be more suitable as a market analysis expert.