Just one week, the BTC buying market has seen a frenzy of chasing prices, with prices rising all the way from last week's $78,000 to a high of $93,000, a weekly increase of 20%. It then dropped to $91,000, also driving up the price of Ether and other cryptocurrencies, with a weekly increase of 20%. The encryption market can be said to have ushered in the most gratifying week, and the main driving force behind it is the institutional investors on Wall Street.

After Trump's election, institutional investors were optimistic about the Trump administration's support for cryptocurrencies. They invested in BTC as 'Trump concept stocks' and within a short week, SpotBTC ETF attracted nearly $5 billion. However, as the price approached the local high point, there was a net outflow of $400 million on Thursday, the third largest daily outflow since the establishment of the ETF, indicating that some institutions have already made a profit and left the market. But the market's frenzy continues.

Multiple technical indicators show that BTC is overbought. In addition, with the market's fear of missing out (FOMO) sentiment rising, the pullback pressure increases. This week, BTC has intermittently pumped and then pulled back, and then pumped even higher again, showing that many investors still choose to take profits and get off the ride. Although BTC is still up 17% this week, it is still short of the market's bet of $100,000.

We believe that the market is indeed overheated, especially after Musk announced the establishment of 'DOGE' and drove DOGE to a big pump of more than 20%. To some extent, this is a short-term positive response. However, the party is not over yet, and institutions and hedge funds are still buying. Retail investors are relatively calm this time, while institutional investors are aggressive in chasing prices.

For example, Goldman Sachs recently disclosed a $710 million BTC position, a substantial increase from August, with Goldman's holdings in BTC-related Spot ETFs increasing significantly from around $285 million to $710 million. Over half of this is being used to expose BTC through BlackRock IBIT Fund, with the amount growing by 83% to $461 million, demonstrating that high-net-worth clients are buying BTC Spot ETFs through Goldman Sachs.

It is worth noting that while institutional investors are aggressively increasing their positions, retail investors and Miners are starting to dump. On-chain data shows that a large amount of BTC has recently been transferred to Centralized Exchanges by Whales, possibly to realize the recent surge in profits. At the same time, the selling pressure from Miners continues to rise, and there are even reports that some BTC assets from 15 years ago in cold wallets have been transferred to exchanges. Many retail investors are choosing to temporarily exit the market and wait for a pullback before buying in opportunistically.

And we also believe that this strategy, now that institutions have lost their minds and are frantically chasing buying, waiting for the end of Trump's trade announcement may lead to another correction, at which point it is a good choice to exit and realize profits. From various data observations, it is really difficult for us to convince ourselves that such a rise is a healthy phenomenon in the market. BTC is bullish in the long term, but the short-term pump is too fast.

Sources: MICA RESEARCH A. On November 12th, BTC broke through $88,000, and market predictions indicate an increasing probability of it surpassing $100,000.

The price of BTC is currently in a hot phase, continuously setting new historical highs, and has now surpassed $88,000. Funds are still pouring into the BTC market, and traders are showing a very crazy state, with a 10.6% increase in the past 24 hours. After Trump won the 2024 US presidential election last week, CNBC analysts predict that BTC will reach $100,000 before the end of the year.

In addition, the prediction market Polymarket's probability of the BTC target price of $100,000 contract has also increased significantly. Currently, BTC is only 13.6% away from $100,000, making the derivatives market equally hot. In just 4 hours, over $120 million in contracts were liquidated, mostly over-leveraged short positions.

However, we believe that there will still be a correction in the market in the short term, but long-term investors do not need to worry about such short-term corrections. Before Trump's inauguration on January 20, the market's positive expectations for him will continue to ferment, which is an excellent upward point for Bitcoin. Currently, funds are continuously being withdrawn from technology stocks and the bond market, and flowing into BTC, reversing the previous situation where AI was dominant.

On November 13th, we raised operating funds by continuously selling ETH for cash.

According to the data from the blockchain analysis platform Spot On Chain, the Ethereum Foundation sold 100 ETH on November 2nd, which is the first dumping since the release of the Foundation's operational report last week. However, the market's bullish sentiment successfully offset the Foundation's dumping, and the price of ETH remains strong after the recent sale, rising more than 33% since last week, with the current trading price exceeding $3,230, thanks in part to institutional investors buying in. The inflow of funds into Spot Ethereum ETF reached a record high of $295.5 million.

The data analysis company revealed that the Ethereum Foundation has sold a total of 4,266 ETH since 2024, raising $11.83 million, with an average selling price of $2,773 per token. The foundation sold 1,250 and 300 ETH in September and October, respectively, adopting a phased approach to avoid excessive impact on market prices.

These sales have raised questions from the community as to why ETH assets were not staked. In response, Vitalik, the founder of Ether, stated that the proceeds from these liquidations are used to fund developers and research projects that drive technological progress, which is necessary expenditure for the Ether ecosystem. Previous waves of dumping severely affected the price trend of Ethercoin, but the recent trading surge after Trump's victory has successfully made up for the price and is not affected by the foundation's sales.

On November 15th, Bitcoin's market dominance climbed over 60%, reaching a new all-time high.

In the past few days, the price of BTC has continued to rise, reaching a high of $93,000, setting a new record. This has also led to a rise in the prices of other small and medium-sized cryptocurrencies and altcoins. However, the rise in BTC is still greater than that of other competing coins, indicating that investors, especially institutional investors, continue to buy BTC Spot ETFs, without overflowing into Ethereum or other assets, and resulting in a market share rise of over 60%.

After BTC encountered resistance at this level, the price once pulled back to $88,000, but then rebounded above $90,000, mainly driven by the increase in inflows of BTC ETF in the United States. In the early hours of today, there was another pullback to consolidate at $88,000, and there was nothing special behind it. There were profit-taking by investors as the rise was too much, and a considerable amount of profit settlement took place. Only when there is such a large fluctuation in the BTC price.

However, investors don't need to worry too much. It is just an early and temporary pullback. Because the increase in BTC is still greater than most competing coins, it means that funds are still pouring in and there is no overflow. In the late stage of the bull market, the usual phenomenon is that the overall market does not rise, and funds are transferred to trade small and medium-sized cryptocurrencies. At this time, investors should consider whether to take profits and exit before the next wave of pullback.

SEC regulatory easing is the next market theme

Interestingly, this week's consumer price index (CPI) released in the United States met expectations, with the overall index and the core index excluding energy and food both increasing by 0.2% month-on-month, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.6% and 3.3% respectively, which did not bring any market surprises. However, the BTC price still fell after the data was released, dropping from $93,000 to $88,000. The main reason is that the price has risen excessively, and some traders chose to take profits.

It is widely believed that a pullback is inevitable after a significant rise, regardless of the consumer price index. Currently, the market is driven by emotions and the high atmosphere of the 'Trump trade,' and BTC's short-term trend is highly volatile and continues to rise. The price of BTC this week has fluctuated by more than 5,000 US dollars, reflecting frequent chip exchanges, but buying pressure remains strong.

As Trump is finalizing his cabinet picks, traders are focusing on when Trump will select the SEC Chairman, who has been tough on the regulation of encryption coins, Gary Gensler, for dismissal. As long as he steps down, it is expected that Trump will choose another friendly head of the regulatory agency for encryption coins, which will promote the rapid development of the encryption coin industry in the United States. The community is now looking forward to Chris Giancarlo taking over as SEC Chairman.

Former Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Chris, known as the 'father of encryption', achieved the defining moment during his tenure by clearly categorizing Bitcoin and Ether as 'digital commodities' rather than securities. This laid a crucial foundation for the subsequent listing and trading of Spot ETF products. If he takes office, it is also possible that more encrypted currencies will be classified as 'non-securities', thereby igniting a surge in competitive coins.

Although he has posted on community X expressing his lack of interest in taking over the SEC's regulatory issues, he has not directly refused. As he previously mentioned that Ripple is not a security, XRP has become a popular candidate for the next Spot ETF. There were rumors that Gary Gensler would resign, and the market is optimistic that an XRP ETF may actually appear, which has led to a continuous rise in its price.

Currently, it is an excellent trading situation in the encryption market, and we are also unable to know if it has peaked. However, we believe that until the SEC chairman in the Trump administration is confirmed, there will be ample room for imagination in the market to boost the price of the encryption market. BTC is just the first major rise, and there will be expectations for the rise of competitive currencies and small and medium-sized encryption currencies. The fourth quarter of this year will be a very fruitful quarter.

MICA RESEARCH LAST WEEK: WILL BTC CONTINUE TO RISE? "2 big profits" support, it is recommended to increase the size every time

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〈【MICA RESEARCH】The market is too crazy, encryption investors can adjust moderately〉This article was first published in "Block Ke".