Tonight's CPI release》Fed official Kashkari: if inflation unexpectedly rises, rate cuts may be paused in December

The U.S. stock and currency markets fell on the eve of tonight's CPI data release, and the market waited for the results of the indicator to judge the pace of the Fed's interest rate cut. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari noted that the Fed may pause rate cuts in December if inflation unexpectedly rises in the coming month. (Synopsis: BTC challenges 90,000 losses "fall to break 88,000 magnesium", former Fed hawks: the number of interest rate cuts or decreases after Trump takes office, and U.S. stocks fall together) (Background supplement: The US CPI in September was "higher than expected" to open the swelling glue! Fed official: November is not necessary to cut interest rates The four major indexes of U.S. stocks fell together on Tuesday, and BTC failed to reach a new high, stopping before the $90,000 mark. The market seems to be digesting the sharp rise after Trump's victory while awaiting tonight's CPI data to determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again this year, and the market sentiment is generally on the sidelines. Kashkali: Fed may pause rate cut in December Yesterday (12), Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said at Yahoo Finance's investment conference that if inflation unexpectedly rises in the coming month, the Fed may reconsider whether to cut interest rates at the December meeting, saying: This may stop us. The market now expects the US CPI to grow at an annual rate of 2.6% in October, up from 2.4% in September; The monthly increase is expected to be 0.2%, unchanged from the previous month. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to grow at an annual rate of 3.3% and a monthly rate of 0.3%, both in line with the previous reading. Core inflation has remained high due to rising housing costs. Kashkari said housing inflation was "still a big problem," but he believed the situation would improve as new leases were signed at lower prices. As for the impact Trump will have on the Fed's Intrerest Rate decision-making, Kashkari said they will have to wait and see. However, as for the inflation that Trump's new tariff policy may trigger, Kashkari dismissively said: In the long run, the new tariffs themselves will not necessarily lead to inflation, because they are 'one-time price increases.'" But if other countries respond, triggering a-for-tat trade war, it could push up long-term inflation. Kashkari stressed that now it's all just speculation. Trump's Immigration, Taxes, and Tariff Policies During the election campaign, Trump's planned sweeping tariffs, tax cuts, and mass deportation of illegal immigrants could create new pressures on inflation and further widen the U.S. fiscal deficit. It is widely expected that these policies will make it more difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates. The reason is that tariffs usually increase the cost of imported goods, and tax cuts may stimulate consumption, which can drive prices up; In addition, deporting illegal immigrants could reduce labor supply and drive up wage costs, which in turn could lead to inflation. As a result of these proposed policies, many economists have lowered their expectations for the number and pace of rate cuts next year. Mester: The number of rate cuts may decrease in 2025 Mester, a former chairman of the Cleveland Fed and a hawkish representative, said yesterday at the UBS annual European conference in London that the economic policies that Trump may implement after taking office, especially global tariffs, may affect the number of Fed rate cuts next year, and will not be as frequent as the market forecast in September: "Next year, the pace of interest rate cuts will be affected by Trump's fiscal policy." According to a Reuters survey, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 1 percentage point in the first half of 2025 and another 25 basis points in the second half of the year, and the federal fund Intrerest Rate may fall to 3%-3.25% by the end of 2025, slightly below the median forecast of the central bank's dot plot. Mester expects the Fed to cut rates less than four times next year, but could still have 25 basis points at its December meeting. She noted that policymakers may then have a "preliminary understanding" of the impact of Trump's fiscal policy on monetary policy, and the details are not expected to be clearer until early next year. For his part, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said at an event in Baltimore: "With the economy in good shape right now, the Intrerest Rate is out of its recent peak, but also from its historic lows, and the Fed is able to respond appropriately no matter how the economy develops." Barkin considers two potential economic scenarios: As election uncertainty diminishes, companies are likely to restart investment and hiring, allowing the Fed to focus on upside risks to inflation. Alternatively, companies may lay off workers due to weakening pricing power and margin compression, which will increase the Fed's exposure to employment risks. Related reports Ether Place's funding rate soared to an 8-month high? Four major data reveal the current state of ETH demand Trump announced the appointment of Musk to lead the government efficiency department DOGE: dismantling the bureaucracy, Shiba Inu LOGO exposure Micro-strategy effect" Singapore's AI education company Genius announced that it will invest 90% of its funds in BTC: the implementation of BTC's priority strategy, the stock price big pump 66% "CPI released tonight" Federal Reserve official Kashkali: If inflation unexpectedly picks up, interest rate cuts may be suspended in December" This article was first published in BlockTempo Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Block Chain News Media".