Chatting with Trader Sa Bi Ge: Buy $MOODENG and Earn 5000 Times, How to Capture Alpha through Token Insider Analysis?

The following text is compiled from the series of Twitter Space #TraderTalks, hosted by FC, founding partner of SevenX Ventures, Twitter @FC_0X0

Guest of this issue: Sa Bi Ge, founder of CashCashBot, Twitter @SaBiBro666

Sa Bi Ge's trading journey: from exchange to on-chain strategy transformation

SabiGe, the pioneer in the field of data-driven trading on the blockchain. Born in Taiwan, he entered the cryptocurrency field in 2017 and joined a mainland exchange in 2019, working in the coin listing department, focusing on on-chain data analysis and due diligence (DD) of projects. This experience has given him a deep understanding of the industry and laid a solid foundation for data analysis.

In 2022, he chose to leave the exchange and start his own business. In the early stages, he focused on the development of NFT application projects. However, as the NFT market gradually declined in popularity, he keenly observed the rise of Memecoin trading and quickly adjusted his direction, focusing on on-chain trading and data-driven investment decisions. He and his team developed various analysis tools and trading robots to monitor the movement of on-chain addresses and generate trading signals.

Sa Coin Brother's trading strategy has distinct characteristics: it does not focus on narrative valuation, but on chain monitoring and strict stop-loss rules. He emphasizes that by setting clear stop-loss and take-profit strategies, trading can eliminate the interference of subjective emotions.

At the same time, he also pointed out that the trading logic needs to be continuously optimized. Initially, he focused on the trading behavior of smart money on the chain, then expanded the focus to team manipulation behavior (conspiracy groups), and then to the key main address behavior of individual tokens. By conducting in-depth analysis of these on-chain activities, he continuously improves the accuracy of trading decisions.

Currently, Sa Bi Ge's main holdings include BTC, ETH, and SOL. These assets form the cornerstone of his core investment portfolio. In addition, #Moodeng, which has recently performed exceptionally well, has become an important milestone for him, achieving a 5000x return in a short period of time. However, for Sa Bi Ge, the significance of $MOODENG goes beyond just profit.

The real value of MOODENG lies in verifying the effectiveness of its data-driven strategy. By tracking the on-chain behavior of MOODENG's main address, he confirmed the trading theory of "following the main force". This practical result not only enhances the credibility of his strategy, but also provides valuable experience support for future trading decisions.

How to use data and discipline to win in trading?

During the trading process, Sa Bi Ge emphasizes the standardized strategy of 'doubling the capital and cutting the loss in half', which is the core of its risk management. This strategy avoids market sentiment interference with clear rules and verifies the feasibility of positive expected value (EV) through mathematical models.

In trading, maintaining a win rate of 33% or more can achieve positive EV. For example:

• Take profit scenario: Sell all assets after doubling to realize 100% returns. • Stop loss scenario: sell all assets after a 50% decline, resulting in a 50% loss.

Based on the above assumptions, when the win rate reaches or exceeds 33%, the trader's long-term returns will increase positively. The strategy of Sa Bi Ge is based on probability, with a focus on maintaining a stable mentality and avoiding wavering trading decisions due to short-term market fluctuations.

At the same time, the Sa Bi Ge team has developed a series of tools that provide users with deep insights into market hotspots and main force behavior, with data as the core:

Token Insider Analysis (CashCash Bot)

Analyzing the token's holding structure and address behavior through big data. Its core functions include:

• Main Behavior Identification: Screening addresses with transfer-related or group trading characteristics, categorizing them as "gangs" or "main cluster".
• Snapshot and trend analysis: Qualitative and quantitative evaluation of token concentration, identifying whether the main force is accumulating.
• Behavioral model optimization: Combining the transfer behavior of addresses (such as the use of cross-chain bridges or coin mixers) and the trend of on-chain fund flow to form accurate predictions of main operations.

FOMO CALL Signal

This is a real-time trading signal tool developed based on a database of thousands of smart money addresses accumulated by the team. When a group of addresses with excellent historical performance collectively buys a certain token in a short period of time in the market, FOMO CALL will issue a signal. This signal can help users quickly capture market hotspots and judge whether the token has potential short-term upside.

These tools provide users with a complete trading support system. For example, the token insider analysis tool shows that the main force of a token has reached a high level of accumulation, while the FOMO CALL signal captures the collective buying behavior of smart money, which usually indicates that the token may become a market hotspot. Users can establish positions and track trends based on the data provided by the tools, combined with strategies such as doubling down and setting stop loss.

How to capture the main force trend through data and take action?

In the cryptocurrency market, the main force profits through fundraising and distribution, and the holding behavior on the chain will inevitably change during this process. The core of the trading strategy lies in how to capture the behavior patterns of the main force through data. For example, during the fundraising period, the main force will exhibit specific on-chain behaviors, which can be aggregated and converted into trading signals.

However, when more people adopt similar strategies, the main force may adjust strategies or even hide behavior. Therefore, the effectiveness of trading strategies needs to be constantly adjusted and optimized to identify possible hidden behavior of the main force. Sa Bi Ge believes that this is an ongoing game, and a dynamically optimized monitoring model is the key to long-term effectiveness of the strategy.

The strategy of Sa Bi Ge started with tracking 'smart money', which often achieves a win rate of over 40% in the market and achieves significant returns. By using tools to filter out these addresses, he and his team have established their own DAO and monitoring list to continuously monitor a group of addresses with excellent performance.

The core methods of strategy include:

• Identify Collective Actions: The team's monitoring found that certain address clusters would operate synchronously, including collective fundraising and distribution behavior. This pattern has become the basis of the strategy.
• Position Control: When following the main force, avoid entering the top 100 holdings list and keep a low profile to avoid affecting the main force's operation rhythm. The usual buy-in position does not exceed 0.5% of the token's market value.
• Signal Response: When the clusters in the monitoring list collectively show a tendency to enter a certain token, the strategy follows up with small-scale probing to avoid revealing its own behavior too early.

Case Study: Trading Process of Moodeng

MOODENG's successful transaction is an important milestone for the SaBiGe team. In September 2024, the team monitored a large-scale entry of an address cluster with long-term excellent performance into MOODENG, and quickly absorbed funds. Following the team's past trading methods, they maintained small-scale purchases and gradually followed up.

During the transaction process, the main force tests the market sentiment through multiple upward movements and pullbacks, while ensuring that the concentration of chips is not diluted. SaBiGe monitors the changes in the holding ratio of these main force addresses in real time and finds that the main force will absorb chips again after each pullback. This phenomenon has strengthened the team's confidence in MOODENG.

In the end, MOODENG has risen from a small market value to hundreds of millions of market value, and the team has not only gained high profits, but also verified the trading theory of "following the main force" through this process.

How to seize the capital rotation opportunities in the cryptocurrency market?

The cyclical changes in the cryptocurrency market have a significant impact on the execution of trading strategies. From a macro perspective, the focus of capital attention varies at different times:

Mainstream Coin Rotation: Funds may be concentrated in mainstream assets such as BTC and ETH, resulting in a lack of on-chain liquidity and lower trading volume.

Emerging public chains and hotspots switching: Ecological hotspots will switch between public chains, such as the recent migration from ETH to Base, BSC, and then to Solana. With high TPS and low gas fees, Solana has become a hotbed for high-frequency trading and innovative projects.

Meme track and narrative change: In more segmented tracks, such as Meme tokens, funds will also rotate due to the update of the launchpad or the change of the narrative. For example, from the high-frequency PVP market of Solana to new projects on the Base chain, the focus of market funds keeps shifting.

Through on-chain data tools like Dune, the SaBi team monitors on-chain transaction volume and fund flow in real time to assist decision-making. For example, recent fund rotation indicates that emerging on-chain virtual economies, such as AI agents and virtuals, have become hotspots, prompting the team to adjust positions in a timely manner and follow the fund trend.

Why Can Calmness and Discipline Determine the Success or Failure of Trading?

Bull markets provide numerous opportunities, but also come with high risks. In such a market, maintaining calmness and discipline is especially important:

Independent Judgment: Sa Bi emphasized that trading should be based on verifying strategies rather than catering to market sentiment. He pointed out that emotional fluctuations in a bull market can easily lead traders to be confused by the narrative of an 'eternal bull market', resulting in excessive optimism.

**Taking Profit Timely: **One major pitfall in a bull market is the reluctance to sell. Even when the market is rising, taking some profits off the table is key to maintaining long-term advantage. Prioritizing risk control over chasing higher returns, even if it means missing out on higher points, is always essential.

Support of Stable Cash Flow: Cash flow is the anchor of calm trading. Obtaining stable cash flow through main business operations or quantitative funds can reduce reliance on short-term market fluctuations, making trading more composed.

In a bull market, traders often face anxiety, including the fear of missing out, lower than expected returns, and psychological fluctuations caused by short-term pullbacks. In response to this, Brother Sabei also shared his coping strategies:

Focus on Trading Framework: Trading beyond the framework, even if profitable, is not considered successful. The core of trading is to validate strategies and refine cognition, rather than pursuing short-term gains.

Creating a Calm Communication Environment: Avoid being influenced by emotional signals and communicate with trading partners in a calm and rational manner. Especially during a bull market, overheated emotions can easily lead to irrational decisions.

牢记市场的Periodical: Saji Ge pointed out that the bull market is not "forever", but a 一次漚与风险并存的周期。 即使有强烈的看涨情绪,也需要警惕风险,特别是当市场中只出现单一叙事且没有明确支撑逻辑时。

How to quickly improve cognitive level?

Sa bi brother believes that the core of personal growth lies in the upgrading of circles, and communicating with people with high recognition can significantly accelerate one's own cognitive iteration. He emphasizes that breaking through the social comfort zone and actively interacting with outstanding individuals is an important way to improve oneself.

In the process of trading and entrepreneurship, he constantly learns from the success experiences and methods of others, looking for his own breakthrough point. The influence of communication with others is subtle. The actions and results of successful people around him can inspire him to think and further optimize his path. He advocates 'upward socialization' and discovers more possibilities through interaction with more outstanding people.

He also mentioned that 'Rich Dad Poor Dad' is a book that has a profound impact on his financial mindset. The book emphasizes the concept of the four quadrants of wealth, teaching him to think about wealth management from the perspective of 'making money work for him.' He mentioned that this book breaks the traditional notion of 'stable job' in education and inspires him to explore the possibilities of entrepreneurship and investment.

In addition to books, his progress also benefits from other sources of knowledge. For example:

1. On-chain analysis KOL

• Ai Aunt @ai_9684xtpa: With blockchain data analysis as the core, it provides in-depth market insights.
• 麦总 @Michael_Liu93:以市场行为和人性分析为基础,从另一个角度解释主力的行为逻辑。

2. Social Media and Community: Quickly capture market trends by following active traders on Twitter and Telegram, and discuss new tracks and business opportunities with team members.

In addition, Sa Bi Ge believes that the integration of knowledge between Web2 and Web3 is an important direction for the future. He and his team often study business cases in Web2, exploring how to replicate their successful models in Web3. This interdisciplinary thinking keeps him ahead in the exploration of new tracks.

Summary and Suggestions

Data-driven approach and continuous optimization: Data-driven trading strategies have been proven to be feasible in practice, but require continuous dynamic tuning. In addition, whether it is the rotation of on-chain hotspots or the switching of track narratives, sensitivity and adaptability need to be maintained.

Patience and Discipline: Successful trading relies not only on strategy but also on a stable mindset. Whether in a bull or bear market, following trading rules and maintaining independent judgment are essential to gaining a long-term advantage.

**建立认知与现金流支柱:**通过稳定的现金流作为基础,trade能以更从容的态度面对市场波动。 通过"不断学习"与"圈层升级",让自己始终处于知识的前沿。