11.4 AI daily report The US election enters the sprint stage, crypto market Fluctuation intensifies

1. Headlines

1. The US presidential election enters the final sprint stage, and the strength of the two candidates is evenly matched.

The 2024 US Presidential election has entered the final sprint stage. According to the latest poll data, the Democratic candidate Harris and the Republican candidate Trump have almost equal support nationwide, and the strength of the two sides is neck and neck.

Harris has a slightly higher approval rating than Trump in key swing states, but Trump still holds a lead in some traditional conservative states. The election is tight and the outcome is uncertain. Both parties are mobilizing their supporters to vote, and the distribution of electoral votes will ultimately determine the winner.

Analysts point out that this election not only concerns the political direction of the United States for the next four years, but will also have a profound impact on the country's policy orientation in many areas such as climate change, trade, technology, etc. Regardless of who wins, the new government will face major challenges such as revitalizing the economy and reshaping America's international status. The election results will have a far-reaching impact on the global political and economic landscape.

2. BTCSpotETF attracted over 22 billion US dollars this week, reaching a record high

According to statistical data, the BTCSpotETF in the United States attracted a total net inflow of $22.202 billion this week, setting a new historical high. This number far exceeds the previous weekly record of $15.6 billion.

Analysis shows that with the approaching US election and persistent high inflation, investors' demand for safe-haven assets such as BTC has increased significantly. BTCSpotETF provides institutional investors with a direct channel to participate in the cryptocurrency market, attracting a large influx of funds.

BTC's market share has also reached 60.52%, hitting a new high in this round of the Bull Market. Analysts believe that as a "blue chip" in the Cryptocurrency space, BTC has shown outstanding performance during turbulent times, and is expected to remain a major target for net inflows of funds in the future.

3. The founder denies selling tokens, major news will be announced

The ecological Token JUP has recently experienced a big pump in price, triggering some investors to question whether the founder has already dumped for profit. However, the founder meow denied it on social media, claiming that he has never sold any JUP Token personally.

Meow explained that the team could have quietly sold Tokens, but chose to undergo a fully transparent audit. He reiterated that he would spend time on the JUP project and deliver on his promises. Meow also revealed that there will be significant news coming soon regarding JUP, and he is confident about the future of JUP.

Analysts believe that the founder's public commitment helps stabilize investor confidence and prevent capital outflows. At the same time, the release of major news will also promote the development of the project, attracting more funds and users. The future performance of JUP is worth continued follow.

4. ETH researcher resigns from EigenLayer advisory role due to neutrality issues

Two Ethereum researchers, Ansgar Dietrichs and Francis Pouliot, recently resigned from their advisory positions at EigenLayer, citing concerns about the lack of alignment with their roles as Ethereum researchers and a desire to focus on their work in Ethereum.

EigenLayer is a project aimed at enhancing the external influence and security Consensus service capabilities of Ethereum. Analysis indicates that this event reflects a high regard for neutrality and Decentralization within the Ethereum ecosystem.

As a leading public chain, Ethereum, the independence and credibility of ETH are crucial for attracting more developers and applications. This decision by researchers is beneficial for maintaining the independence of the Ethereum ecosystem, avoiding conflicts of interest, and gaining more trust.

5. encryptionexchange Coinbase insiders plan to sell $900 million in stocks

It is reported that the global executives and directors of Coinbase recently passed a trading plan to sell Coinbase shares worth over 900 million US dollars. Based on the latest Closing Price calculation, the total number of shares is approximately 5 million shares.

According to Coinbase, insiders adopt such plans to avoid being accused of bias due to access to non-public information. The plan will automatically execute trades when specific conditions are met.

Analysts pointed out that as a leading enterprise in the Crypto Assets field, the large-scale reduction behavior of insiders at Coinbase may have a certain impact on market confidence. However, as long as the scale of sales is controllable, it should not cause significant impact on the operation and development of Coinbase in the short term.

二. Industry News

1. The US election is approaching, and the BTC market sentiment is cautious

This week will be a historic week of change, with the U.S. election opening for final voting on November 5th (Tuesday), and the election results are expected to be basically determined by noon on the 6th Beijing time. Currently, the election is in a deadlock, with constant swings in the polls in swing states. The latest poll data shows no clear advantage between Trump and Harris, and some investors are choosing to profit from closing out positions related to Trump's policies and improvements in public opinion polls, especially those assets associated with Trump's policies and improved public opinion polls. The current market style is overall cautious, with increased uncertainty.

Analysts say that the outcome of the U.S. election will have a significant impact on the global market. If Trump is re-elected, it will be favorable for the industrial and livelihood sectors. BTC is expected to lead the breakthrough, and DOGE may have opportunities. WLF, supported by the Trump family, may drive the DeFi ecosystem. If Harris is elected, it may affect the overall profitability of enterprises, Favourable Information fiscal benefit areas and the new energy industry, but it will disrupt market expectations and the stock market may experience significant fluctuations.

Regardless of the outcome, investors need to closely follow the election process, manage risks, and avoid being influenced by short-term market sentiment. Based on historical experience, there is often a significant Fluctuation in the market after the election, so investors should maintain a cautious attitude and allocate assets reasonably.

2. BTCOptions implied Volatility soaring, indicating a major market trend in the future

Researcher Adam from the Greek data analysis platform Greeks.live stated that this week is the week of the US election, which has increased the uncertainty of the election. The odds of Trump and Harris have been fluctuating, which has had a significant impact on the entire market. On Friday, there is also the Fed interest rate decision, with the market expecting a 25 basis point rate cut. Currently, the cryptocurrency market is mainly in a wait-and-see mode for hedging.

Adam pointed out that the at-the-money implied volatility has risen to 80% this week, and the implied volatilities of options for this month are significantly higher than those for forward options, indicating the possibility of a major market movement in the next few days. Implied volatility is an important parameter for option pricing, reflecting the market's expectation of future actual volatility. The higher the implied volatility, the more expensive the option price, indicating higher expectations for future volatility by investors.

Analysts say that the sharp rise in implied volatility reflects investors' concerns about the drastic fluctuations in the market after the election. If the election results are widely questioned, it could trigger long-term disputes and exacerbate market volatility. Investors should closely follow the election process, adjust investment strategies in a timely manner, and avoid potential risks.

3. Cryptocurrency market sentiment continues to be "greedy", beware of profit-taking pressure

According to Alternative data, today's Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index is 70, down from 74 yesterday, indicating that the market sentiment continues to be "greedy". This index is used to measure whether the current market sentiment is overly optimistic or pessimistic. When the index is in the "greedy" range, it usually means that the market may face profit-taking pressure.

Analysts pointed out that although most investors are currently in a profitable state, this also means that the market faces the risk of profit taking. Investors should closely follow the support range of BTC at 2087-2311 US dollars, as well as the resistance ranges of 2459-2531 US dollars and 2531-2827 US dollars.

If BTC falls below $2087, it may trigger further dumping; if it breaks through $2531, it is expected to continue to rise to $2827. Short-term investors can buy in the support range and take profits near $2531; medium and long-term investors can consider $2087 as a solid support level for layout.

In general, investors should remain cautious, adjust their strategies in a timely manner to respond to market changes, and control their risk exposure reasonably.

3. Project News

1. Sui ecosystem continues to strengthen, Move-based projects lead a new wave of innovation.

Sui is a new blockchain project developed by Mysten Labs, aiming to provide high performance, scalability, and low-cost decentralized applications. Sui adopts the Move programming language and is a derivative project of the Diem blockchain.

Latest news: The Sui ecosystem has been developing rapidly recently. During the TOKEN2049 conference, Sui ecosystem projects such as Cetus and Navi have attracted widespread attention. Meanwhile, the Sui Foundation announced a partnership with Grayscale Trust to launch the USDC stablecoin on the Sui chain. This marks the official entry of the Sui ecosystem into the DeFi track.

Market Impact: As a representative project of the Move series, the rise of SUI is expected to lead to the widespread application of the Move programming language in the blockchain field. The advantages of the Move language lie in its high security and verifiability, which is expected to promote the large-scale implementation of blockchain applications. At the same time, the prosperity of the SUI ecosystem will further promote the development of other Move series projects such as Aptos, Movement, etc.

Industry feedback: According to Delphi Digital analysis, the Move language is expected to become the dominant language for the next generation of smart contracts. As a pioneer of the Move series, SUI's ecological development will directly impact the application prospects of the Move language in the blockchain field. Industry insiders generally believe that the continued follow-up of SUI's ecological development is worthwhile.

2. Eigenlayer: The Road to Ethereum's "External Secure Consensus"

Eigenlayer is a secure Consensus protocol of Decentralization, designed to provide external secure Consensus services for the Ethereum. It allows anyone to purchase secure Consensus of Ethereum on demand, and provides a secure market of Programmability for the Ethereum ecosystem.

Latest news: Recently, two ETH researchers resigned from their advisory positions at Eigenlayer, citing complaints about neutrality. Nevertheless, Eigenlayer continues to steadily advance its technical roadmap, providing Ethereum with stronger security Consensus capabilities.

Market Impact: Eigenlayer is seen as a powerful weapon for ETH to face competition from high-performance chains. By enhancing ETH's external influence and security consensus service capabilities, it builds a "Programmability-safe market", injecting new vitality into the ETH ecosystem.

Industry Feedback: Vitalik Buterin, the founder of the Ethereum Foundation, has stated that Eigenlayer is an important component of Ethereum's Rollup-Centric strategy and is crucial for maintaining the 'technology-first' consensus principle. Industry insiders believe that the development of Eigenlayer will directly impact Ethereum's market position in the future.

3. AI+We: Witnessing the Rise of a New Track at TOKEN2049

At the recently concluded TOKEN2049 conference, the integration of AI and We has become a highly followed new track. Several AI+We projects made their debut at the conference, showcasing innovative applications that combine artificial intelligence technology with blockchain.

Latest developments: Many AI+We projects including Gensyn, Hyperbolic, Schelling AI, Title.xyz, etc. conducted roadshows at the conference, attracting the attention of numerous investors and entrepreneurs. These projects are dedicated to applying artificial intelligence technology in computing, art creation, social networking, and other fields.

Market Impact: AI+We is seen as a new opportunity for We development, which is expected to promote the application of blockchain technology in more fields. The integration of artificial intelligence technology is expected to bring more innovative application scenarios to We, enhance user experience, and achieve large-scale application.

Industry feedback: Several investment institutions have expressed their focus on following the AI+We track during the conference. Industry analysts believe that AI+We is expected to become the next trend, attracting more entrepreneurs and capital. However, there are also voices reminding that most AI+We projects are still in the early stages and need further observation of their development prospects.

Overall, the AI Daily on November 4 focused on the latest developments in the hot areas of the Sui ecosystem, Eigenlayer, AI+We, and other areas, providing readers with a comprehensive analysis of the background, dynamics, impact, and industry feedback of these projects, helping readers to gain an in-depth understanding of the innovative development direction in the We field.

IV. Economic Trends

1. US non-farm payrolls data in October far below expectations

Economic Background: The U.S. economy has been facing the dual challenges of inflationary pressure and a tightening cycle over the past year. Although the inflation rate has fallen, it remains well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target level. The unemployment rate has remained low at 3.5%, and the job market remains tight.

Important event: The October non-farm payroll data released by the US Department of Labor shows that the number of new jobs added was only 261,000, far below the expected 193,000. This is the lowest monthly rise figure since December 2020. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate also rose slightly from 3.5% to 3.7%.

Market Reaction: The soft performance of non-farm data has dampened market expectations for a further substantial rate hike by the Federal Reserve. After the data was released, the US stock market briefly declined, but then rebounded to close higher. Investors expect the Fed to raise rates by another 50 basis points in December and to end the rate hike cycle early next year.

Expert view: Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, believes that the labor market is slowing down, but still relatively strong. He expects the Fed to end the rate-hiking cycle in the first half of next year and begin cutting rates in the second half of 2024. Meanwhile, economists at UBS believe that the non-farm payroll data reflects an economic slowdown, but has not yet fallen into recession.

2. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points, the largest single rate hike in 20 years

Economic background: The eurozone economy is facing dual pressures of high inflation and economic slowdown. The inflation rate has been persistently high in double digits for several months, far exceeding the European Central Bank's target of 2%. At the same time, energy crisis and geopolitical tensions have exacerbated the downside risks to the economy.

Important event: The European Central Bank raised the three key interest rates by 75 basis points at its interest rate decision meeting in October. This is the largest single rate hike since the establishment of the eurozone in 1999. The move aims to curb the rising inflation.

Market reaction: The Euro to USD exchange rate briefly rose after the announcement of the resolution, but quickly gave up its gains. Investors believe that the European Central Bank's rate hike is still not as strong as the Federal Reserve's, and the widening interest rate differential will continue to put pressure on the Euro. European stocks fell slightly after the rate hike announcement.

Expert opinion: Analysts from Deutsche Bank predict that the European Central Bank will significantly raise interest rates again in December and raise the interest rate to around 3% in the first half of next year. The chief economist of ING believes that the pace of interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank may slow down to evaluate the impact of interest rate hikes on the economy.

3. The UK's new fiscal budget triggers market turmoil

Economic background: The UK is facing its highest inflation rate in 40 years and the risk of long-term recession. The new Prime Minister, Traas, launched the "rise plan" upon taking office, aiming to stimulate the economy through measures such as tax cuts, but it has raised concerns in the market.

Important Event: The new British government has announced a controversial budget plan, which includes plans for massive tax cuts and increased spending. This budget is believed to further exacerbate inflationary pressures and fiscal deficits.

Market reaction: The pound saw a big dump after the budget announcement, hitting a historic low. Bond yields soared, reflecting investors' concerns about UK sovereign credit. The UK stock market also fell in response. International rating agency Moody's downgraded the UK's rating outlook.

Expert opinions: Jeffrey Sachs, an economics professor at Columbia University, pointed out that this budget proposal is "deficit-financed tax cuts," which will exacerbate inflationary pressure and may lead to further depreciation of the pound. Economists at Standard Chartered Bank believe that the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates significantly to defend the pound.

5. Regulation & Policy

1. The third review of the Anti-Money Laundering Amendment Bill clarifies that Financial Institutions should take Money Laundering Risk Management measures.

The draft amendment to the Anti-Money Laundering Law was submitted for the third review by the Standing Committee of the Fourteenth National People's Congress on the 4th. The draft further clarifies the conditions for Financial Institutions to take Money Laundering Risk Management measures to avoid affecting clients' normal financial activities.

The third draft of the draft stipulates that if the transactions conducted by the client do not match the client's identity and risk status held by the Financial Institution, further verification of the client and related transactions should be conducted; for high-risk Money Laundering situations, it may be necessary to restrict transaction methods, amounts, or frequencies, restrict business types, refuse to handle business, terminate business relationships, and take Money Laundering Risk Management measures if necessary.

At the same time, the third draft of the draft improves the mechanism for handling objections to Money Laundering Risk Management measures, adds provisions for objections involving basic and necessary Financial Service of customers, Financial Institution shall handle them in a timely manner. In addition, the third draft of the draft separately stipulates the legal responsibilities for units and individuals who fail to take special anti-Money Laundering preventive measures in accordance with the regulations, and specifies corresponding legal responsibilities for specific non-Financial Institutions and related practitioners.

The revision aims to further strengthen the supervision of Anti-Money Laundering, maintain financial order, and prevent financial risks. Industry insiders say that specifying the conditions under which Financial Institutions take Risk Management measures when identifying suspicious transactions is beneficial for Financial Institutions to better fulfill their Anti-Money Laundering obligations, while also balancing the needs of customers' normal financial activities.

2. MAS in Singapore advances Financial Service tokenization plan

On November 4, the Monetary Authority of Singapore announced a series of plans to promote the commercialization of tokenized Financial Service assets, covering aspects such as market Liquidity, infrastructure, industry framework, and Settlement convenience.

According to reports, under the "Guardian Plan", the Monetary Authority of Singapore has convened more than 40 financial institutions, industry associations, and international policymakers from seven jurisdictions to conduct industry experiments on the use of asset tokenization in the Capital Market.

Mr. Ong Chong Tee, Deputy Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, said that the Monetary Authority of Singapore encourages Financial Institutions and policy makers to jointly develop industry standards to promote the commercialization of tokenization Capital Market products and the wider adoption within the industry.

The specific plan includes: forming a business network, deepening the Liquidity of tokenized assets; establishing a market infrastructure ecosystem; nurturing industry frameworks for the implementation of tokenized assets; enabling the use of common Settlement facilities for tokenized assets.

In addition, the HKMA will also establish a new Market Infrastructure Working Group, composed of global financial market infrastructure providers, focusing on the control principles of digital asset securities and carrying out additional activities including control principles, standards, and design compliance.

Industry insiders believe that the move by the Monetary Authority of Singapore aims to promote financial technology innovation and provide a more favorable regulatory environment for asset tokenization. Tokenization is expected to enhance the efficiency and transparency of Financial Service, while reducing Transaction Cost. However, it also needs to address related risks and challenges, such as investor protection, and combating Money Laundering.

3. Taiwan FSC will strengthen the review of listings on Cryptocurrencyexchange

The Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan (FSC) plans to introduce new regulations in January 2025, requiring encryption service providers to complete Anti-Money Laundering Compliance registration. Huang Xihe, head of the securities department of FSC, stated at the FinTechOn conference in Taipei that the new regulations will strengthen the review of listing and delisting of encryption assets, involving key areas such as Fiat Currency custody, information security, customer complaints, record-keeping, and information disclosure.

In addition, the new regulations will require trading platforms to establish clear listing and delisting procedures and prevent unfair trading and monitor abnormal trading activities. The encryption custodian is required to custody customer assets or separate them from the platform's own assets, and entrust an accounting firm to audit customer assets annually. The FSC also plans to submit a special legislative proposal for encryption assets in June 2025 to further strengthen regulation.

Huang Xihe said that the Financial Supervisory Commission will gradually include virtual asset service providers in four stages, with the goal of promoting their compliance, standardization, and healthy development, while enhancing the protection of the rights and interests of investors and consumers. Financial institutions and operators of virtual asset services need to establish internal anti-fraud units, actively engage in anti-fraud work, and incorporate their anti-fraud performance into important evaluation criteria.

Industry insiders believe that Taiwan's move aims to regulate the cryptocurrency market, protect investor rights, and promote the healthy development of the industry. However, excessive regulation may also affect innovation, and it is necessary to seek a balance between regulation and development.