Data interpretation: When will the crypto market’s decline end?

作宇：Tiago Amaral & Aaryamann Shrivastava, Beincrypto

Compiled by: Felix, PANews

The crypto market has started a downward trend recently. Bitcoin and Ethereum have continued to fall. The current prices are around $66,000 and $3,300 respectively. Will they continue to fall in the short term? To what level? This article will analyze it for you.

**Will **** Bitcoin drop below ** 6 **$ this week? **

The number of wallets holding 100-1000 Bitcoins (commonly referred to as “whales”) has remained relatively stable since March 24, fluctuating slightly between 13,872 and 13,841. The stable behavior of Bitcoin whales suggests that interest may be fading. The pause in buying may reflect a decline in confidence or a cautious stance by these major players.

Number of addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC

In addition, Bitcoin's 7-day relative strength index (RSI) is 69, below the overbought area, but not yet in the oversold area. This balance may suggest that the market's interest in Bitcoin is declining and the market has entered a consolidation phase where neither buyers nor sellers dominate.

The Relative Strength Index is primarily used in technical analysis to evaluate recent price action to determine whether an asset is overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30).

Bitcoin 7D Relative Strength Index

Finally, Bitcoin’s exponential moving average (EMA) is approaching a death cross. A death cross is when a falling short-term moving average crosses above a falling long-term moving average, a pattern that is often seen as a bearish sign.

If the bearish trend shown near the death cross continues, Bitcoin’s price could drop to $59,200, especially if the support at $62,300 is not enough to halt the decline. This potential decline may reflect increased selling pressure and weakening market sentiment towards Bitcoin.

Bitcoin 4-hour K-line chart and EMA line

ETH WILL FALL BELOW $3,000? **

Despite the recent decline, ETH almost recovered the $3,500 support level before the decline. Currently, more than 96% of ETH is in profit.

This situation confirms that the market has peaked. A market top is the highest point reached by an asset price before starting a downward trend, marking the peak of investor optimism and often signaling a market correction or downturn. This is proven when more than 95% of the supply is profitable.

Additionally, ETH has been selling off, with supply climbing on exchanges over the past few months. More than 2.31 million ETH entered the exchange, worth more than 7.6 billion US dollars.

Ethereum supply on exchanges

If the selling continues amid the bearish scenario, Ethereum’s price will struggle to recover and could fall further.

Ethereum is trading at around $3,308 and has lost the support of its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), and is also below the $3,336 support line. This makes it very easy for ETH to test the next key support level, which is $3,031.

A drop to this level is possible and if the above scenario persists, ETH may also drop below $3,000. However, if it can rebound from $3,031, it is likely to resume or slow down the decline with a chance to reclaim $3,336, invalidating the bearish view.

Related Reading: 11 Charts to Interpret the March Crypto Market: Bitcoin Miner Income and Other Indicators Hit All-Time Highs