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Tracing history: Mainstream currencies have experienced halving, can the rules be reused?
Original | Odaily Planet Daily
Author | Nanzhi
Recently, BCH has taken advantage of the approaching halving date to start a strong rise, and Bitcoin is also expected to be halved on April 20.
Are there any signs of the market before and after the halving event? Odaily will review the halving data of previous years and analyze it in this article.
Bitcoin Halving
Currently, Bitcoin has undergone three halvings, namely on November 28, 2012, July 9, 2016, and May 11, 20. Since the market for the first halving was not mature enough, it was not included in the statistics.
In terms of currencies, most of the current mainstream currencies have not yet been born during the second and third halvings. Therefore, some leading currencies that have survived to this day are selected, including BTC, ETH, LTC, XRP, and BCH. The prices are Historical Data from CoinGecko.
Taking the price on the day of the halving as the base point, the relative prices of the above tokens in the 60 days, 30 days and 7 days before and after the halving are calculated. The trend of Bitcoin's second halving is shown in the figure below. It can be seen that before the halving cycle, all currencies have risen to a certain extent as the time approaches. After the halving, most prices started to fall.
The trend of Bitcoin’s third halving is shown in the figure below. It is worth noting that the 60 days before the halving were actually the day of the 312 plunge. In fact, the price of this node can be considered to be much lower than shown in the figure. Considering the standard consistency issue, the CoinGecko data caliber will not be modified.
Therefore, each currency still maintained the upward trend before the halving cycle, but because 312 has significantly released risks and the macro environment has changed, the upward trend continued after the halving.
LTC Halving
This section includes three rounds of LTC halvings as reference, namely August 25, 2015, August 5, 2019, and August 23, 2023. The results are shown in the figure below.
It can be seen that the hype about LTC's halving came earlier, and then it began to fall continuously from around the 30th.
BCH Halved
Looking back at the BCH halving in 2020, it can be seen that the BCH hype came earlier and faster. In fact, the rise before the halving started in the beginning of 2020 (about 100 days before the halving), rising from a low of about 200 USDT to 500 USDT, while Bitcoin rose by about 25% during the same period.
in conclusion
Based on the above data, it can be seen that the halving market hype often begins 2-3 months before the halving itself or even earlier. After the event actually takes place, it will not become a driving force for short-term increases, but more of a “sell the news”.