So far, there has not been any significant black swan events or unfavorable information in the market, but the market has already weakened.
If the above conditions are met, and there is no black swan or particularly unfavorable news afterwards, the market will fluctuate on a semi-annual or annual basis.
and is unlikely to enter a nearly three-year-long bear market like in 2021.
What is the use of drawing this conclusion?
The conclusion can tell us first, the market is Whipsaw, there is still capital in the market, after the Whipsaw ends, it will still rise, repeating the cycle of pump and dump, and so on.
Secondly, it can tell us that this form of rise and fall is dominated by technology, so technical analysis will be more useful. The accuracy of fundamental analysis and other analyses may be slightly lower.
Thirdly, we can be told that the market's ups and downs are not like the bear market of 21 years. The ups and downs are influenced by the Fed or related news. This time, the decline is more controlled by dealers. Dealers guide retail investors' emotions by releasing different news, guiding retail investors to short or go long, and then exploding. When the bottom of the technology is reached, there is a high probability of a reversal and pump in the market.
So be patient and wait for the next pump cycle, observe more and wait for the results to blossom.