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Can BTC still catch the bottom?
BTC rose from around 15000 to around 73000, and then went sideways for about 6 months. With such a high price, is it still possible to buy the dip?
Personally, I think it's definitely possible.
First of all, it is necessary to know the relationship between BTC and the USD. They have an inverse correlation, which means that when the USD appreciates, BTC depreciates; when the USD depreciates, BTC appreciates.
Data Review:
In April 2021, the US Dollar Index fell to a low point around 89, starting to rise; BTC rose to a high point around 60000, starting to fall.
October 2022, the US Dollar Index rose to a high of around 113 and began to fall; BTC fell to a low of around 19000 and began to pump.
September 2023, the US dollar index started to decline near the pressure of 106 in the oscillation range; BTC started to pump near the support of 25000 in the oscillation range.
April 2024, the US dollar index rose to the pressure of around 106 in the sideways range, starting to decline; BTC was around 73,000 at its peak, starting a high-level Sideways oscillation.
The US dollar index is currently near the support level of 100 in the past two years, facing two choices:
①pump;
② Downward;
In the past two years, the Federal Reserve has been trying to push down the US dollar index through a series of measures, and has been regulating it all the time; from being cautious and worried about hard landing, causing a series of problems, it has finally come to the current possibility of soft landing.
Over the past 10 years, the Federal Reserve's accepted range for the U.S. dollar index should be around 95 (92~99).
With the Fed's interest rate cuts and other means, it is believed that the US dollar index will fall below the support level of 100 in the past two years and fall towards the position expected by the Fed.
So, when the US dollar index starts to fall, BTC also starts to pump; when the US dollar index falls below the position, I believe BTC will also break the previous high of 73000.
If you have a different opinion, feel free to leave a comment in the comment section.