Source: CryptoVizArt, UkuriaOC, Glassnode

Compiled by Baishui, Golden Finance

Summary

The strong capital inflows from the ETF and Spot markets have pushed BTCrise to $93,000. Over the past 30 days, more than $62.9 billion has entered the market, with BTC dominating the demand influx.

The long-term holder's failure to realize profit growth has triggered a large-scale selling activity, with 128,000 BTC sold between October 8 and November 13.

The US Spot ETF played a key role, absorbing about 90% of the dumping pressure from long-term holders during the analysis period. This highlights the increasingly important role of ETFs in maintaining Liquidity and stabilizing the market.

Capital inflows surge

Since early November, BTC has performed very well, continuously setting new ATH throughout the month. When comparing the price performance of the current cycle with the 2015-2018 (blue) and 2018-2022 (green) cycles, astonishingly sustained similarity can be observed. Despite significant market differences, the magnitude and duration of the Rebound are surprisingly consistent.

This cross-cycle long-term consistency remains interesting, providing insights into Bitcoin's macro price behavior and cyclical market structure.

From a historical perspective, past Bull Markets have lasted 4 to 11 months from the current point, providing a historical framework for assessing the duration and momentum of the cycle.

This week's new ATH was set at $93,200, bringing BTC's quarterly performance to an impressive +61.3%. This is an order of magnitude higher than the relative performance of gold and silver, which rose by +5.3% and +8.0%, respectively, in the quarter.

This stark contrast suggests that capital may shift from traditional store of value assets to BTC, a younger, emerging, and digital asset.

BTCMarket Cap has also expanded to a staggering $1.796 trillion, making it the seventh largest asset globally. This move places BTC above two globally significant assets: silver, valued at $1.763 trillion, and Saudi Aramco, valued at $1.791 trillion.

As of now, BTC is only 20% behind Amazon, making it the next important milestone in its path to becoming the world's most valuable asset.

After BTC's outstanding performance in the past 90 days, a larger digital asset market began to experience a large influx of funds. In the past 30 days, the total inflow reached 62.9 billion US dollars, of which the BTC and Ethereum networks absorbed 53.3 billion US dollars, while the supply of stablecoins increased by 9.6 billion US dollars.

This is the highest level since reaching its peak in March 2024, reflecting the recovery of confidence and new demand after the U.S. presidential election.

Expanding the observed capital inflows, the majority of the 9.7 billion USD stablecoin minted in the past 30 days has been directly deployed to centralized exchanges. This inflow is closely related to the total capital flow of stablecoin assets during the same period, highlighting its key role in stimulating market activity.

The sharp increase in the balance of exchangeStable Coin reflects investors' strong speculative demand for trend utilization, further reinforcing the bullish narrative and the post-election momentum.

Investor profitability investigation

So far, we have explored the trend of market Liquidityrise, which has supported the excellent performance of BTC. In the next section, we will use the MVRV ratio to evaluate how this price behavior affects the unrealized profit potential (book income) of market investors.

When comparing the current value of the MVRV ratio (orange) with its annual moving average (blue), we can see a rise in investor profitability. This phenomenon is usually supported by sustained market momentum, but it also creates conditions for investors to be more likely to profit from liquidation to realize book profits.

As the profitability of market investors increases, the potential for new selling pressure will also increase. By overlaying the MVRV ratio with a ±1 standard deviation, we can construct a framework to evaluate overheated and underheated market conditions.

Overheated (Warm): MVRV trading above +1SD

Insufficient Heating (Cool): MVRV Trading Below -1SD

The price of Bitcoin recently broke through the +1σ range, which is $89,500. This indicates that investors currently hold statistically significant unrealized profits and suggests an increased possibility of profit-taking activities.

However, historically, the market has been in this overheated state for a long time, especially with enough capital inflows to absorb selling pressure from support.

Extreme expenses for long-term holder

During the prosperous stage of the market cycle, the behavior of long-term investors becomes crucial. LTH controls a large portion of the supply, and their spending dynamics can greatly influence market stability, eventually forming local and global tops.

We can use the NUPL indicator to evaluate the book profit held by LTH, which is currently 0.72, slightly below the threshold of belief (green) to excitement (blue) 0.75. Despite the significant pump in price, compared to previous cycle tops, the sentiment of these investors is still low, indicating that there may be further rise space.

As BTC broke through $75,600, the 14 million BTC held by long-term holders 100% converted into profit, thereby stimulating the acceleration of spending. Since ATH broke through, this has led to a decrease in balance of +200k BTC.

This is a classic and repetitive pattern, as long as PA is strong and demand is sufficient to absorb profits, long-term holders start to profit taking. Since LTH still holds a large amount of BTC, many LTHs are likely waiting for higher prices before releasing more BTC back into circulation.

We can use the long-term holder spending binary index to assess the strength of LTH selling pressure. The tool evaluates the percentage of days in the past two weeks in which group spending exceeded its accumulation, resulting in a net decrease in its holdings.

Since early September, with the pump of BTC price, the long-term holder spending has been steadily increasing. With the recent surge to $93,000, the indicator reached a value indicating that the LTH balance decreased on 11 out of the past 15 days.

This highlights the increasing distribution pressure of long-term holder, although it has not reached the level observed around March 2021 and March 2024 peaks.

After identifying the spending behavior of long-term holders, we can consult the next tool to gain a deeper understanding of their activities around key market points. The interaction between profit-taking and unrealized profits helps highlight their role in shaping cycle transitions.

This chart displays intuitively:

LTH achieves price (blue): the average acquisition price of long-term holders.

Profit / Loss Pricing Range (Blue): Represents the extreme profit (+150%, +350%) and loss (-25%) levels, which typically trigger significant spending activity.

Profit Taking (Green): A phase where long-term holders hold profits of more than 350% and increase spending.

dumping ( red ): A period of high expenditure when long-term holders are at -25%+ loss.

The price of BTC has surged to a profit zone of over 350% (at $87,000), prompting significant profit-taking behavior in this group. As the market pumps, distribution pressure may increase, and these unrealized gains may also expand accordingly. In other words, this marks the beginning of the most extreme phase of the previous Bull Market in history, with unrealized profits rising to over 800% in the 2021 cycle.

Institutional Buyers

Now we will turn our attention to the role of institutional buyers in the market, especially through the US Spot ETF. In recent weeks, ETF has been the main source of demand, absorbing most of the sell-side of LTH. This dynamic also highlights the increasing influence of institutional demand in shaping the modern BTC market structure.

Since mid-October, the weekly ETF inflows have soared to $1 billion to $2 billion per week. This represents a significant rise in institutional demand, and is one of the most significant periods of fund inflows to date.

To visualize the balance of LTH dumping pressure and ETF demand, we can analyze the 30-day change in BTC balance for each group.

The chart below shows that from October 8th to November 13th, ETF absorbed approximately 128,000 BTC, accounting for 93% of the net dumping pressure of 137,000 BTC exerted by LTH. This highlights the key role of ETF in stabilizing the market during periods of increased dumping activity.

However, since November 13th, the selling pressure of LTH has begun to exceed the net inflow of ETF, which echoes the pattern observed in late February 2024, when the imbalance of supply and demand intensified the market Fluctuation and consolidation.

Summary

BTCrise to $93,000 is supported by strong capital inflows, with approximately $62.9 billion of capital flowing into the digital asset field in the past 30 days. This demand is led by institutional investors through the US Spot ETF, even in the case of capital outflows from gold and silver.

ETF has played a key role in absorbing over 90% of the selling pressure from long-term holders. However, as unrealized profits reach more extreme levels, we can expect an increase in LTH spending, and in the short term, its inflow will exceed that of ETFs.