Arthur Hayes Podcast Full Text: Predicting BTC to reach $250,000 by the end of 2025, newcomers should cash out in a timely manner

He looked ahead to future market trends and predicted that BTC could reach a milestone of $250,000 by 2025.

Article author: Wu on blockchain

Article Source: Wu Shuo Blockchain

In the recent interview on the podcast Alpha First, Arthur Hayes shared his bold predictions for the future of the Cryptocurrency market. He believes that with the potential of the Trump administration coming into power, the loose monetary policy in the United States will lead to the depreciation of the US dollar, thereby driving up the prices of BTC and other encryption assets. He also discussed global inflation, the monetary policy of sovereign countries, and how it could benefit BTC and other encryption assets such as memecoin. He emphasized the need for investors to remain vigilant in the Bull Market, avoiding the neglect of market risks due to greed. In addition, he looked ahead to future market trends and predicted that BTC could reach a milestone of $250,000 by 2025.

Trump's economic policies will lead to a depreciation of the dollar and benefit Bitcoin

Dreamer: Just a few weeks after the election, there have been many market price changes. What can we expect in the next 12 months? Do you have any vision to share with us? What is worth following in the entire Cryptocurrency forecast landscape?

Arthur: In my opinion, the market forecast is correct. They expect Trump and his new cabinet members to print a lot of money in the United States. One of their campaign platforms is to attract manufacturing and industrial companies back to the United States through a weak dollar policy. Then, they will inject a large amount of funds through bank credit to increase the credit volume in the US economy, promote production, and raise wages. These will lead to inflation.

The ultimate losers are those who save in dollars or hold government bonds. And those with assets that have a fixed supply, such as Bitcoin, will perform very well. We have already seen this trend, right?

So, I drew some data comparing the total amount of bank credit in the United States with the performance of Bitcoin. Currently, BTC is clearly leading. This indicates that if Trump comes to power, his plan is already very clear - to weaken the US dollar, stimulate the market with credit, get people back to work, and restore America's production capacity. I think he will execute this plan.

Will BTC reach $1 million?

Scott: There is a follow-up question about Trump. You made a bold prediction that if Trump took office, Bitcoin would reach $1 million. Do you still think everything will develop as expected? Do you still have confidence?

Arthur: I am confident, but not sure if it will be achieved in a short time. In fact, this trend began when Trump was elected president in 2016. At that time, he initiated a trade war against China, and this policy has been continued by the Democratic Party and the Biden administration. So now, this confrontation has deeply rooted in American political culture.

In the past, the United States has transferred most of its manufacturing and production capacity to China and Asia. These countries have gained a competitive advantage by weakening their currencies, which has affected American workers. Therefore, the United States must bring these industries back home. To achieve this goal, trillions of dollars in credit need to be allocated to businesses so that they can make profits domestically in the United States.

Biden has already passed measures such as the CHIPS Act, infrastructure construction legislation, and the Green New Deal, all of which require substantial financial support. This trend will continue.

Global economic policies will drive inflation rise and Favourable Informationencryption assets

Dreamer: People in the field of encryption are often the most disruptive. There are many things worth discussing around Trump. From the domestic perspective, your point of view makes a lot of sense and is also very optimistic for many people. But if we look at it from an international perspective, how will the election affect foreign policy, war, and trade? For Asia, some policies may bring some fear. Will these policies have a negative impact on the economy or Crypto Assets? Or do we not need to worry too much?

Arthur: I believe that fundamentally, every country is now pursuing a policy of "national priority". The United States has put forward "America First", while China hopes to bring prosperity back to rural areas or low-income groups through the "common prosperity" plan. Therefore, the Chinese government has suppressed the real estate bubble, and is now stimulating the economy again through a loose monetary policy.

Japan is undergoing capital inflows, which will boost its economy, but more credit is also needed to prevent bank failures. In contrast, Europe, due to cutting off cheap energy imports from Russia and turning to expensive energy imports from the United States, finds itself in a predicament. However, they still need to support business operations, so they will also adopt stimulus policies.

So every country is trying to take care of its own people, which means restoring local industries and increasing demand for goods. And this trend will drive inflation on a global scale, further suppressing the long-term prospects of bond yields.

In such an environment, Crypto Assets will perform well. Although the policies of different countries may seem different, they are actually pursuing the same goal, which is to prioritize meeting the needs of their own citizens. This requires an increase in internal credit allocation and expansion of supply to support production and create employment opportunities for people. This global trend is very Favourable Information for Bitcoin and other encryption assets.

Will the rise of BTC drive other encryption assets?

Dreamer: It seems like this is Cryptocurrency, especially a great opportunity for BTC. But what about other Cryptocurrencies? How do you see if they will be affected by the rise of BTC? Are you a BTC supremacist, thinking that only BTC has prospects, and others will not follow? Or do you think that other projects like Ethereum will have a chance? For example, Non-fungible Token, memecoin, and Decentralized Finance, these trends have experienced ups and downs. Will they also benefit from the market pump? Or mainly follow institutional investors, only believing that BTC will attract funds?

Arthur: I actually don't pay too much attention to the movements of institutional investors because people always say they will enter the market, but regardless, they have their own complex investment logic and credit considerations, so there are reasons for buying or not buying. From the perspective of retail investors, when the price of BTC pumps, the most important asset for everyone is BTC. When my wealth in BTC increases, I don't want to go back to Fiat Currency, because it doesn't make sense, right? I also won't only invest in BTC. I want to invest in other encryption assets that have a larger increase than BTC.

What else can we do? We will follow memecoin, new Layer 1 blockchain, Layer 2 projects, Non-fungible Tokens, and the gaming industry, etc. BTC leads the market, and then funds will gradually flow into other categories of assets. Because ultimately, the goal is to earn more cryptocurrency rather than convert it back to fiat currency. I believe fiat currency will eventually drop to zero.

Scott: Yes, I think everyone will try to make quick profits and even become addicted to this rapid rise. After all, it is one of the fastest rising asset categories. If they profit from BTC, many people will not convert back to Fiat Currency, but will turn to other encryption assets that still have potential. You also mentioned that memecoins in this cycle have surprised everyone, just like Non-fungible Tokens in the previous cycle. I heard that you hold some memecoins, is this part of the market interesting to you? How have memecoins performed in this cycle, can they easily rise to billions of dollars in scale?

Arthur: It's really interesting, I love it. This phenomenon is interesting and interesting, such as the memecoin squirrel, which went from zero to $2 billion in about nine days. Just because the U.S. government executed a squirrel, it became a $2 billion memecoin, traded worldwide. This phenomenon shows how quickly we react to what's hot in global culture and make it fun with memecoin. Now everyone knows about the squirrel that was "executed" by the U.S. government or the state of New York. So there's a memecoin around it.

This is both interesting and reflective of reality. There may also be a subculture that expresses dissatisfaction with the government, such as their inflation policies. This phenomenon also makes memecoin a rapidly spreading attention market.

The rapid rise of memecoin demonstrates the global cultural responsiveness.

Dreamer: We also have some existences like "blue chip" memecoin, such as those memecoins related to current affairs you just mentioned. I think these memecoins will fluctuate, but we also have some memecoins that have already stabilized, such as Dogecoin. Some people say it will rise to 1 dollar, do you think it's possible?

Arthur: I think it's possible. It's very interesting, especially when it comes to government efficiency departments or new 'ELON' type of characters, they have confirmed some things, which in itself becomes a classic meme. I wish I had bought some at the time, because these memes are really good and interesting. ELON is a very excellent meme creator, probably one of the best meme creators in history. Although I have some doubts about his business model, he is undoubtedly a genius in meme art. So, Dogecoin could indeed reach $1.

However, I feel that when people start to realize the huge gap between government propaganda and actual achievements, there will be a feeling of 'falling from the altar'. People may reexamine the meaning of these memes and the messages they convey. This transformation will be very interesting.

Advice to newcomers: Keep rational and timely cash out in the bull market

Dreamer: There are a lot of technologies out there that make it easier to launch new Layer 1 Block projects, or memecoins. I think we're going to see a lot more creativity coming into the space, and there's also a lot more specialization coming in. In addition, as you mentioned, the momentum from the elections was also very strong. If we look back, such as the rise of Decentralized Finance and Non-fungible Tokens, and other trends that have been hyped, the excitement at that time is similar. So, what are some lessons or cautionary tales worth sharing? Especially for those experiencing the Bull Market for the first time, what would you advise them to pay attention to along the way? How to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past in this "beautiful and cruel world"?

Arthur: First of all, no one can profit from the market forever. Everyone knows that you can make money quickly in a bull run, but the key is how to keep these gains. For example, the memecoin you currently hold may no longer exist in one or two months. Its market capitalization may fall from 200 million dollars to 5 million dollars, the change is so drastic. You can't predict these things.

Some statistics show that only about 0.01% of memecoinMarket Cap can exceed 5 billion U.S. dollars, and most traders will end up losing money. Many people see huge profits on paper, however, they always hold onto the emotion of "I can earn more", ultimately leading to losing the wealth they already have.

So, if you make some life-changing money, take some of it out. There will always be opportunities in the market. Maybe you can take a break and re-evaluate the market. It is very important to stay rational.

Are there any potential risks or catalysts in the market?

Scott: In this case, people are easily experiencing a round of market fluctuation like a roller coaster. As you mentioned, some assets may disappear in one or two months. Some people do make life-changing money in a few days, such as memecoin Peanut. But even coins with a market capitalization of 2 billion US dollars may also experience a big dump quickly. Therefore, your point of view is correct, and you should cash out at the right time, gradually exiting some positions for both memecoin and BTC. As you said, taking profits will not lose money.

Dreamer: Are there any 'Black Swan Event' or potential catalysts that could disrupt the market? Looking back over the past few years, such as the collapse of FTX or other unforeseen events, are there any trends or entities that we need to be vigilant about? Under the new Trump administration, has the market cleared these uncertainties and become simpler for development?

Arthur: I think a lot of them have already been cleared out. Many people suffered heavy losses in the FTX, Genesis, Three Arrows, and Luna incidents. So, maybe BTC has already pumped to $100,000 now (perhaps it will be this price when you publish this interview). But in the long run, when TradFi funds see cryptocurrency prices rise, they will want to participate, such as through venture capital.

Many venture capital firms have raised a large amount of capital. Similar to the previous cycle, they need to find major companies or important projects to invest in. In the early stages of the market, these funds are usually allocated reasonably and put to good use. However, as the Bull Market deepens, funds may flow into certain "hot areas" as investors have to invest in order to get returns. In this case, it may be possible to see some business models built on the assumption of continuous pumping of prices, leading to the accumulation of risks and ultimately market imbalance.

Currently, I don't know exactly which zone this situation will occur in, but we have not reached the "overheating" stage. Especially when TradFi capital enters, there may be overinvestment in certain areas, which is where investors need to be vigilant, to avoid a "reshuffle" when market prices become disconnected from reality.

Dreamer: Yes, when you mentioned it, I thought of how people become bored and eager to experience that feeling of quick profit after having many successful trades. Currently, many BTC second-layer protocols have announced profit plans, but where do these profits come from? We don't want to repeat the mistakes of making high-profit promises without a solid foundation. Others may seek more trends to pursue greater profits, but this also increases the risks gradually. So, for those who have experienced the last bull market, I hope they can learn from the lessons, and for newcomers, I also hope they can learn from others' experiences.

Casual Talk About Skiing

This interview is very exciting. We really appreciate your time. There is an IFC event tonight - a credit confrontation match, and I don't know if you and others have time to attend. This is a global event, and we really hope to have the opportunity to invite you to participate in the future. I believe you will enjoy this type of event, like the influence of figures in the field of competition and activity in the encryption field. Now I'll hand over the microphone to Scott to end this interview.

Scott: Yes, we really appreciate your time and sitting down with us to answer these questions. It would be great to see you at IFC. One last easy question: when you're not doing anything related to Crypto Assets, what do you do? What are your hobbies? How do you relax or detach from work? Are you a food lover? Do you go in search of new restaurants? Or do you have other ways to keep yourself motivated?

Arthur: I really enjoy skiing. So, for three to four months every year, I spend my time in the mountains immersed in the snow. During the ski season, I ski for eight hours every day. Apart from exercising and enjoying outdoor activities, I hardly do anything else. This makes me very happy.

Scott: Where is your favorite skiing destination?

Arthur: Niseko in Japan. Their powder snow is excellent, dry and light. It snows there from January to February every year, which is absolutely stunning.

Scott: So are you preparing now? Adjusting your state?

Arthur: Yes, I am preparing for skiing. However, the only drawback of Japanese ski resorts is that the slopes are not steep enough, and there are no extremely dramatic and steep ski trails.

Dreamer: The ski resorts in Salt Lake City will have a lake effect. I live in Singapore, but I used to live in the United States and would often go skiing, but I'm a snowboarder.

Scott: Me too! Although I still ski, I prefer snowboarding. There are some places that are more suitable for snowboarding.

Dreamer: Yes, some places are very suitable. You won't encounter skiers "trampling" your tracks on the ski slope.

Scott: This is awesome! I haven't skied in a few years, but it's a hobby I've always wanted to pick up again. I'm from the Northeastern United States, grew up in New Jersey and New York, and could easily go skiing in Vermont. However, for the past decade, I've been living in Houston, so skiing isn't as convenient anymore. It's no longer a matter of loading up the gear and driving a few hours to get there.

Scott: I hope you have a great time in the coming days. I really want to go to Japan to experience the fun of skiing. I didn't expect there to be such great skiing conditions there. I must try it in the future.

BTC price predictions for the end of the year and 2025

Scott: By the way, a specific question. What do you think the price of BTC will be at the end of this year and this time next year?

Arthur: I think BTC will reach $100,000 by the end of this year, and it may reach $250,000 by the end of 2025.

Scott: You heard it, this is the prediction announced for the first time by Alpha First: the end-of-year price of BTC will reach $100,000, and it may reach $250,000 in a year. Maybe we will have the opportunity to go to DevCon and other events next year to verify this prediction again. I hope that by then, it will not only be $250,000, but even higher.