BTC has been continuously hitting new historical highs since November 2024. As of the time of writing, it has surpassed the $94,500 mark and is getting closer to the psychological level of $100,000. With the rising market sentiment, investors are confident in the future of BTC and predict that it will pump all the way to the $100,000 mark. However, despite this attainable goal, the process of breaking through $100,000 is still challenging. At this critical price level, multiple factors within the market, such as fluctuations in sentiment, fund flows, on-chain data changes, and trends in the options market, may become resistance to further pumping of BTC.

This article will analyze these factors in depth, uncovering the potential barriers facing BTC's breakthrough of $100,000, and exploring the deeper impact behind this price threshold.

Market Sentiment: Hidden Worries Behind Extreme Greed

According to Alternative.me data, the current market sentiment for BTC has reached an 'extreme greed' state. The Fear & Greed Index shows that the market sentiment has reached 90, the highest point since 2021. Investor sentiment is overly optimistic, and the market is usually prone to price pullback in this state.

The rising greed sentiment means that more and more traders are starting to lock in profits. Although the price is reaching new highs, historical experience shows that when market sentiment becomes overly optimistic, it often means that the price has reached its peak. The short-term trend of BTC may experience a short-term adjustment due to excessive market optimism. At this time, a large number of profit lock-ins in the market may bring selling pressure.

Long-term holder's dumping wave: on-chain data releases warning signals

Long-Term Holders (LTH) of BTC are typically seen as the cornerstone of market stability, but recent on-chain data shows that the behavior of these investors is changing.

According to Glassnode's data, the HODL net position change of BTC long-term holders has dropped to the lowest point in 5 months. Especially between November 15th and 17th, the HODL net position of LTH experienced a significant decrease. This indicates that BTC long-term holders have started dumping a large amount of BTC in the near term, with a daily dumping volume exceeding 3 billion US dollars, the largest since June 2023. This change implies a significant increase in market supply, which may create resistance to the pump of BTC price.

In fact, LTH's behavior is often an important indicator of Bitcoin's price. In February 2021 and early 2023, the dumping wave of LTH has caused significant price pullbacks in the market. Therefore, the current dumping behavior of LTH may indicate potential pressure on the price of BTC.

MVRV Ratio: Warning for Bitcoin Valuation Bubble

The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) is an important indicator for measuring the valuation of BTC in the market. Its value reflects the deviation of BTC market value from its actual value. When the MVRV ratio exceeds 3.7, it usually indicates that BTC is entering an overvalued range, which may mean that there is a market bubble.

Currently, the MVRV ratio has reached 2.67, although it has not exceeded the caution line, but this value is still close to the historical high. This means that the current market value of BTC has deviated significantly from its actual value, and the sustainability of the price pump may be affected by market sentiment. If the MVRV ratio continues to rise, the market may experience a value regression, resulting in a short-term pullback in BTC price.

BTC Futures Market Dynamics: funding rate and Spot Market support

According to Coinglass data, the current exchangeBTCexchangeBTC contract position has exceeded 59.6 billion US dollars, reaching a new historical high. Although the funding rate has temporarily climbed to 30% (annualized), it has now fallen to 15%, indicating that some leveraged long positions traders choose to Close Position and exit. It is worth mentioning that even with the decrease in funding rate, the BTC price remains resilient, highlighting the activity of buying pressure in the Spot market. With the funding rate drop, speculative long positions traders can re-enter the market at a lower cost, which further boosts the bullish sentiment in the market. This series of market changes shows that the pump momentum of BTC remains solid.

Impact of the Options market: The debut of IBITOptions

On November 19, 2024, BlackRock launched IBIT options for the first time, with volume unusually active, with a notional exposure close to $2 billion. According to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart's report, the number of contracts traded on the first day reached 354,000, with 289,000 call options and 65,000 put options, a ratio of 4.4:1. This data indicates a strong market expectation for the future pump of Bitcoin.

The launch of IBITOptions will greatly enhance institutional participation in BTC. The Options market provides tools for risk hedging and speculation, which can bring more Liquidity to the BTC market. Especially for institutions that are unwilling to hold BTC directly, IBITOptions provides a way to profit through Options trading. This not only effectively diversifies risk, but also may drive the pump of BTC price.

However, the introduction of the Options market may also change the market structure of BTC. Analysts predict that with the increase in Options volume, the implied Volatility rate may be suppressed, especially during the Bull Market period, which will lead to intensified market price fluctuations, and even the occurrence of a phenomenon similar to the 'Gamma Squeeze' during the big pump of GameStop's stock price. This phenomenon may accelerate the drastic fluctuations in BTC price.

Fund inflows: Positive performance of BTC spot ETF

The continuous pump of BTC relies on the active participation of institutional investors, especially the inflow of ETF funds. The net inflow of current BTC ETFs has exceeded $28.677 billion, reaching a new historical high. Among them, BlackRock's iShares BTC ETF (IBIT) alone contributed a net inflow of $29.6 billion, while Fidelity's BTC ETF (FBTC) attracted a capital inflow of $11 billion. The influx of these funds not only reflects the recognition of institutional investors in the BTC market but also further solidifies BTC's position as a digital asset. The strong momentum of ETF fund inflows indicates that BTC is gradually moving towards the mainstream investment market and becoming a long-term holding asset for large institutions and investors.

BTCMiner dumping slowing down

The activities of BTCMiner have had a profound impact on the market, especially their holding and selling behaviors, which directly affect the market supply, demand, and price fluctuation. With the continuous pump of BTC price, the profitability and selling strategies of miners have changed, which has supported the price.

Listed mining company BTC open interest

According to the latest data from HODL15Capital, the "holding amount" of BTCMiner has increased by about 7.5%, indicating that Miners are more inclined to hold BTC rather than sell it immediately in the current market environment. This trend indicates that the selling behavior of Miners has slowed down, and their long-term holding intentions may help to keep the market price strong. Especially when the BTC price breaks through key technical levels, Miners choose to reduce selling, thereby dropping the circulation of BTC in the market.

The increase in BTC's Computing Power is also one of the important factors affecting the market. According to the data from Blockchain.com, the total Computing Power of the BTC network has exceeded 640 EH/s, close to its historical high. This indicates that the input of Miners is increasing, and mining activities are becoming more concentrated. The rise in Computing Power not only represents the accelerated production speed of BTC, but also means that more Miners are willing to continue to invest, even at high prices, they are not eager to sell their BTC holdings.

Large institutions continue to increase their position in BTC: Microsoft's potential move

With the continuous pump in the BTC market, the attention of institutional investors is also rising.

On November 18th, MicroStrategy announced that it had used the proceeds from the sale of stocks to purchase an additional 51,780 BTC for $4.6 billion between November 11th and 17th, 2024, at an average purchase price of $88,627. This move once again demonstrates that MicroStrategy's investment strategy in BTC remains unchanged and its long-term bullish expectations for BTC are even stronger.

On November 20th, MicroStrategy announced that it will issue $2.6 billion worth of convertible senior notes and use the proceeds to purchase BTC. The scale of this issuance is larger than the previously announced principal amount of $1.75 billion, and the issuance is expected to be completed on November 21, 2024.

After the announcement, MSTR's intraday gain expanded to 6.43%.

At the Spaces conference hosted by VanEck, Saylor said he will submit a proposal to the Microsoft board

At the same time, the attraction of Bitcoin has also attracted follow from other large enterprises. MicroStrategy's chairman Saylor recently stated that he will submit a three-minute proposal to the Microsoft board, suggesting that Microsoft consider investing in BTC as a corporate asset. Although the Microsoft board has stated that it has evaluated a variety of investment assets, including BTC, Saylor still believes that BTC will make the company's stock value more stable and the risk lower. This proposal is expected to be voted on December 10th, and whether Microsoft will adopt this proposal is still unknown, but its potential move undoubtedly provides a demonstration effect for more institutional investment in BTC.

Policy New Wind: The Trump administration may usher in a golden development period for Bitcoin

With Trump elected as the President of the United States, BTC may usher in a series of favorable policy changes, further consolidating its position as a global store of value.

Trump's senior team also includes a group of prominent Crypto Assets supporters. Vice presidential candidate JD Vance, defense secretary nominee Pete Hegseth, and newly established co-head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) Elon Musk are known for their support of Crypto Assets, especially BTC.

In addition, the support of Doge Father BTC supporter Musk undoubtedly injected a strong signal into the market.

Cantor Fitzgerald's CEO, Howard Lutnick, was nominated as the Secretary of Commerce.

In addition, the nomination of the Trump administration further demonstrates its support for the Crypto Assets industry.

Trump nominated Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald and a supporter of Bitcoin, as the Secretary of Commerce.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Secretary of Health and Human Services nominated by Trump, has always been a staunch supporter of BTC.

Lutnick himself holds hundreds of millions of dollars in BTC and has publicly announced Cantor Fitzgerald's plan to launch BTC financing business. In addition, Trump is considering appointing blockchain legal expert Teresa Goody Guillén as the chairman of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Guillén has long advocated for a more relaxed regulatory policy on the Cryptocurrency industry. If elected, she may push the SEC to more actively support the development of the encryption market.

With the gradual implementation of the Trump administration's policies, the market expects Bitcoin to receive greater support in a more favorable policy environment. This not only creates conditions for the future development of Bitcoin, but also enhances market confidence and attracts more investors into this field.

Perhaps $100,000 is the next new chapter for BTC.

As BTC approaches the psychological barrier of $100,000, the market sentiment and capital flow are at a critical juncture. Despite the strong pump momentum of BTC, the hidden risks and challenges cannot be ignored. The extreme greed in the market, the slowing down of dumping behavior by Miners, the rise of the Options market, and even the gradual increase in position by traditional Financial Institutions and large corporations are all shaping the future direction of BTC. Behind all this, whether BTC can break through this historic price level ultimately depends not only on technical factors and market sentiment fluctuations but also on deep changes in the global economy, policy environment, and investor confidence.

With more and more institutions joining the investment camp of Bitcoin, the market may usher in a new structural change. Perhaps, in the near future, $100,000 will no longer be an unattainable goal, but a new starting point. And each of us standing in the wave of Digital Money may be experiencing a new era of asset and technology integration, witnessing the transformation of BTC from an asset category to global Consensus. Regardless of the outcome, the future path is destined to be extraordinary.