This content is compiled from E2M Research's weekly space 'Guess and Rebuttal'.

The book 'Speculation and Refutation' has brought a lot of harvest to several main speakers of E2M Research. We hope that reading books will not only be limited to reading, but also apply its good ideas to practice and even verify them in our own investment cases.

As we believe, there are many things in the world that are not black and white. There are many 'third-party thoughts' that encourage us to constantly seek better explanations, encourage everyone to boldly speculate, actively refute, and carefully verify and implement in life.

The recent market trend is good, how to hold good assets for the long term? How to Heavy Position again after selling the flying? It is worth discussing again, and the guests also exchange and discuss through their own industry experience.

Complete Audio:

Selected Highlights

God Fish Twitter @bitfish1

The dimension of a good asset is based on the current perception for future judgment. If its development curve and future rise trend and key turning point have already been met, then it will be placed in the basket of good assets for comparison with other assets.

The ultimate question is how to hold good assets for the long term after finding them?

Hold on, the core point that needs to be emphasized here is not on the rational level, but more on the psychological level, so we need to establish some methods and rules while still being rational to ensure that we can maintain relative rationality when in a state of FOMO.

How to build this framework?

It is necessary to mention the trap 'Position management method' here, which requires dividing the asset pool into four pools:

The first one is a cold wallet, mainly used for storing coins, creating various obstacles to make it difficult for you to access. Put the core assets in it, and probably more than 60% of the assets will be placed there.

The second one is the Warm Wallet. The so-called Warm Wallet system is mainly used to manage assets and can provide a more secure and stable cash flow. It allows us to maintain a more stable mindset even in extremely pessimistic situations, probably around 20% to 30%.

The third is the hot Wallet, mainly used for spending, using speculative assets to try the wrong, to try the product experience, to judge whether it is a good asset for the future, probably a few percent of the asset scale or even less. If this Wallet really increases the scale of speculative consumption assets, immediately draw it into the warm Wallet or the corresponding cold Wallet.

The remaining one is Fiat CurrencyWallet, and there is a small principle in it, which is the 4% principle: 4% of the assets in the Fiat CurrencyWallet are equal to annual expenses. Assuming the previous Wallets suffered accidents, the fixed deposit Interest or national debt Interest generated by Fiat CurrencyWallet can basically cover daily life, which can basically be said to be life savings and isolated assets.

Zhen Dong Twitter @zhendong2020

If you currently hold Crypto assets or TSL, you need to have a better understanding of models similar to complex system evolution or nonlinear rise, as well as innovation diffusion. Because in today's Internet era, we can see that the speed, efficiency, and cost of information dissemination or knowledge dissemination have risen exponentially compared to decades ago.

To have a good understanding of good assets, one must first have a certain foundation of knowledge. One important reason that hinders many people from holding good assets is that most people now have wrong understanding of long-term holding, or that their biggest enemy to holding good assets for a long time is their enthusiasm for short-term trading. Many people mix long-term holding with short-term trading.

What did Popper say is the most important thing? The most important thing is more rational humility.

How to analyze what is a good asset? You should continue to make positive and good investment decisions, which have long-term compound interest, rather than doing repetitive and useless work. And humility means knowing that it is possible to make mistakes, and once you realize that you have made a mistake, you should constantly make changes and adjustments.

Odyssey Twitter @OdysseysEth

There are two key points to holding good assets for a long time: one is understanding, and the other is long-term. Understanding can be divided into two aspects: rational understanding and emotional understanding. How to understand it? The things constructed when buying will also be effective in both the cognitive and emotional levels when selling. How to construct when buying? This is the question of how to understand good assets.

There are several points in the process of cognitive construction, and they will all play a role when selling.

The first point is not to ask about those early assets, because they have not reached the tipping point. If you can't understand them at the beginning, you naturally won't touch them, and you won't sell them later. If you have already reached the tipping point when you enter, you will be more focused when you look at it again, and your understanding will be very deep.

The second point is to think and verify monopolies in multiple dimensions. If you buy because of a monopoly, then the only reason to sell will be the disappearance of the monopoly or the emergence of a better monopolist. This symmetry can be completely constructed. Understanding the process of monopoly will enrich our understanding of user needs and the overall potential market, which will bring a lot of rational and emotional constructions.

There are two aspects to holding good assets in the long term:

On the one hand, it is earning money within the scope of recognition. If you have already figured out the long-term product roadmap at the beginning and have achieved it, should you sell it at this time? Not necessarily. Some people can indeed earn this part of the money, but those who are unlucky may not earn money beyond recognition.

On the other hand, money is often likely to be non-linear, surpassing everyone's initial cognition. As an investor, one should be able to withstand this surprise, not using the limited rational brain from 10 years ago to predict the future, but to construct this asymmetry to reap the benefits in the future. How to reap the benefits in the future? After owning assets, one should be able to recognize its characteristics, acknowledge it as a good asset, and believe that it can exceed expectations.

What happens after selling and then Heavy Position? In fact, it is more of a psychological issue, including cognitive issues. In terms of cognition, it is equivalent to increasing the position with the monopoly, and on this mentality basis, naturally one will not care whether the previous price was high or low, because with the monopoly's increase the position, it has already decoupled from the price. The key to re-entering Heavy Position is having sold before, which is very painful for almost everyone. Many people think that investment is just investment, but it's not. Investment implies a desire to prove oneself or solve current life troubles. Often, to make good investment decisions, you need to first address this desire or the underlying psychological issues. If you were initially driven by a very strong desire, it is difficult to make rational investment decisions.

Q, why do we need to establish this Position management system?

I have compiled some major decisions I made in trading, and the winning rate is only slightly over 40% and not exceeding 45%. So later on, when making major decisions, I would write decision logs, analyze various circumstances and my own emotions at that time, and then analyze my understanding of the development of the world, judgments on the future of this event, why such decisions were made, and whether there would be regrets. Reviewing them again after six months or a year.

In the end, it will be discovered that the world is unknown, and our modeling and rationality of this real world are limited. In the process of modeling, we must ensure that we have an open mind and brain.

Some very painful mistakes, these mistakes are essentially the information that the real world gives us, often determining whether a person can grow. The key is to say that when the real world gives real and effective feedback and information, don't get caught up in those emotions, and be able to review, think, and iterate afterwards. (Crypto Fish Twitter @bitfish1)

Q. Which is more difficult, finding good assets and selling them quickly or heavy positioning afterwards?

Heavy Position itself is harder to achieve than finding good assets. Many people around me who hold BTC sell it after obtaining some profits, and few of them can buy it back after selling it. Therefore, let's not talk about buying back Heavy Position. Heavy Position is the act of investing a large proportion of assets into a specific asset type, which is itself a challenging task.

When I bought Tesla at first, although I had done a lot of research, I found that I still couldn't buy it when I really went to buy it, so I could only buy an absolute value, so I found that human nature is a little uncomfortable with such a large number, including when I used to play Texas, I found that the rise of chip absolute value would bring psychological pressure, although it doesn't account for much from the perspective of asset allocation, but that absolute value will still inevitably be compared with the usual expenses.

After selling the flying, the harder part of Heavy Position is facing mistakes. It's not just about admitting the mistake, but it's a process that requires a lot of underlying logic reconstruction. Secondly, the attitude towards mistakes is also a problem many times, because sometimes it is associated with personal image, thinking that it is embarrassing to recognize the mistake. Some ordinary people may think that making mistakes is shameful, but many intelligent people think it is more shameful not to have the ability to correct the mistake.

Popper's trap scientific philosophy is also an antidote, which can understand the entire human race from a philosophical perspective by these mistakes. The only way to create new knowledge is to speculate and refute. By eliminating those erroneous speculations, the remaining speculations are relatively correct. This means that the process of making mistakes is not only inevitable, but also the only way for us to find new knowledge. (Peicai Li Twitter @pcfli)

Disclaimer: The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, perspectives, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific situation. Investing based on this is at your own risk.

This article is authorized to be reproduced from: "Shen Chao TechFlow"

Original author: E2M Research

"Position Management Strategy! How to hold good assets in the long term? How to maintain Heavy Position after selling?" This article was first published in "encryption city".