Will BTC repeat history? Analysts believe the current market will resemble the 2019 pattern.

Since BTC broke through the $73,000 mark again in March this year, its price has been in a long-term stagnation, which has left many investors wondering about the future trend. According to recent analysis by CryptoQuant analyst, known as 'Avocado', this stagnation may be similar to the pattern observed in 2019.

In the report uploaded by the platform, analysts believe that the lack of fluctuation in BTC prices is largely due to the increasing popularity of Over-the-counter Trading (OTC) compared to exchange trading, which has reduced the frequency and intensity of price fluctuations. This conclusion was drawn after analysts evaluated a key indicator of BTC - the lifespan of UTXO (unused transaction output) - to analyze investor behavior.

By examining UTXOs with holding periods of less than six months, analysts classify these holders as new investors and compare their behavior to similar periods in previous market cycles.

Data shows that UTXO has experienced a small peak within six months, which is very similar to the structure in 2019. The analyst said that these new investors may have entered the market around March this year, when the price of BTC reached its peak. However, due to the stagnant price, many investors may have exited the market due to losses, while others have turned to investors who hold for six months or more, the analyst added.

Analyst Avocado further explained that a similar pattern occurred in 2019, around the Halving event, ultimately leading to BTC hitting an All-Time High (ATH). However, BTC took about 490 days to reach this peak, a timeline also impacted by the outbreak of the epidemic. Due to BTC's price hovering within a relatively large range for over six months, the current situation has raised doubts about the possibility of similar outcomes.

The analyst remains confident in the long-term pump trend of Bitcoin, but advises caution in the short term. Avocado points out: Currently, the price of BTC has been hovering within a large range for over six months, with no clear breakout trigger. While I have no doubt about the long-term pump trend, in the short term, I believe it is wise to manage expectations and closely follow the market. Historically, the influx of funds from new investors has always been a key condition for the pump in BTC price.

(Data Source: Samuel Edyme)