一. Headlines

1. BTC breaks new high of $79,000, analyst says "this is just the beginning"

The price of BTC has continued to soar after Trump's re-election, breaking through the $79,000 mark for the first time this week. Analysts say this may just be the beginning of future pumps.

BTC soared to $79,000 for the first time in a week, setting multiple new highs. Analyst Tuur Demeester pointed out, "BTC hitting $79,000 is a new high. Stay calm, this is just the beginning, and it's the right time to hold steady. No need for any hasty actions, HODLing will do the job for you."

The rise of BTC is mainly driven by the optimistic sentiment of the cryptocurrency industry towards Trump's re-election. Analysts expect the BTC price to continue to pump. Some believe that BTC may experience a pullback in price below $50,000 in the near future.

The recent performance and sustained demand of BTC compared to other cryptocurrencies indicate strong momentum, although traders should remain cautious due to market fluctuations. Institutional investments and the rise of ETFs may provide the necessary impetus for Ethereum to achieve its goals.

2. Ethereum encounters Crisis of Confidence, Vitalik Buterin faces a major test

Ethereum is undergoing an unprecedented crisis of confidence. Since the launch of the ETF, there has been a net sell-off/fund outflow of over $1.2 billion from Ethereum core researchers/EF, developer community organizations, Consensys-related businesses, and external investors.

Vitalik Buterin needs to better guide and set goals for different stakeholders, as ETH is already a very large Decentralization business entity in both the encryption market and traditional markets. In history, there has never been such a business entity, which will continue to test the entire ETH community and Vitalik Buterin to an increasingly severe degree, even to the point of a creative destruction.

At this 2049 conference, surprisingly, the most discussed topic is the Ton ecosystem. Western funds are generally not optimistic about Ton and Web2 platforms. But this does not answer the question of whether to invest or not. Ethereum needs to regain the trust and support of the community, otherwise it will face the risk of being marginalized.

3. The encryption game track is in trouble, and the industry urgently needs innovative breakthroughs

The game track has become exceptionally difficult, and all participants are losing confidence. The encryption game forces participants to leave or create more innovative products and fun games in a more challenging mode.

However, Pirate Nation, which was invested by A16Z at the beginning of the year, and Small Brain, which recently completed financing, still have a good community foundation. However, overall, most WeGame projects have not captured real users or generated value, resulting in a slow rise in new users.

Industry insiders are calling for adjustments to the practicality and unlocking terms of Tokens. There are significant issues with the existing unlocking mechanisms and practicality. Traditional IPO investments only require a lock-up period of 6 months to a year, but for early-stage investments in encryption projects, Liquidity lock-ups can last as long as 3 to 4 years.

The downturn of the game track reflects the fundamental transformation that the entire industry is undergoing. Relying solely on speculation and quick money is no longer feasible, and the industry urgently needs to reshape its business logic through genuine innovation in order to regain momentum for development.

4. AI track becomes a new hot spot, We entrepreneurs flock in.

During this TOKEN 2049 conference, the author observed that many "serious" project parties and investors have begun to enter the meme-related track.

Top investor Romeo said, "98% of AI+We applications have been proven false. I am optimistic about the future of AI and Crypto. I believe that there will definitely be an AI project that can rival Ethereum in the future, but currently, all AI projects are just memes."

At the same time, there are more and more founders from the traditional AI field who are venturing into We entrepreneurship, such as Computing represented by Gensyn and Hyperbolic, Web2 type All in players represented by Schelling AI, and image/video generation models like Title.xyz dedicated to Midjourney artistic style. AI+Consumer+Decentralized Finance is becoming a new track that industry funds are actively betting on.

The rise of the AI track reflects the reflection of practitioners in the encryption industry on the traditional mode. At a time when other popular tracks are stagnating, AI may become the next focus, attracting more innovators and capital.

5. The Solana community is strong in cohesion, practical in pursuit of user rise

The Solana ecosystem received a warm response at the Breakpoint conference. The conference added a debate session, the community vibe was full, reflecting the strong centripetal force of the Solana community, and a more pragmatic pursuit of user rise and out-of-circle.

The Solana exhibition area is like a superstore, with dozens of projects releasing new products. The conference is divided into two stages, and every seat is taken. The Solana core developer community has done a great job in understanding user psychology and educating users, which is worth learning from the Ethereum community.

Data shows that Solana's transaction-related activities are much higher than other networks, and its user activity patterns are unique. Although layer 2 solutions also show rise and innovation, they face different scalability challenges and user fragmentation issues compared to Solana.

Solana's ecosystem highly follows the real needs of users and product experience, and the community is highly cohesive. This pragmatic attitude may give it an advantage in the next development cycle. Whether other public chains such as Ethereum can adjust in time will determine the future pattern.

二. Industry Data

1. ETH

The recent transaction price is $3031.4400, with a daily increase of +4.10%.

2. BTC

Recent transaction price 76525.3000 US dollars, intraday increase +0.50%.

3. DOGE

The recent transaction price is $0.2093, with an intraday increase of +4.70%.

4. ADA

Recent transaction price $0.4348, with a daily increase of +1.70%.

5. GT

The latest transaction price is 9.3980 US dollars, with an intraday increase of +4.80%.

三. Industry News

1. BTC price breaks $79,000, causing market divergence

BTC experienced a big pump in price over the weekend, almost reaching $79,000, which has sparked some disagreement. Some believe the bull market is driving up prices due to low Liquidity, while others speculate that this trend will be short-lived. Meanwhile, BTC's increase has almost reached 15% for the week, and analysts believe a pullback may be necessary. Some think BTC may experience a pullback to a price below $50,000 in the near future.

Cryptocurrency analyst WhalePanda stated that the trend of low Liquidity on weekends almost always fully retraces. Keith Allen, co-founder of Material Indicators, reiterated the need for "some pullback" during the pump period of BTC price. He pointed out that weekends are the time for Whale games, and currently, it is in the price discovery phase, so it is more important to follow the weekly and monthly Closing Price of BTC.

However, it is important to remember that there are risks involved in every investment and trading activity. Investors should maintain caution and rationality, closely follow market dynamics, and do good Risk Management. The recent relative strong performance of Bitcoin, as well as sustained demand, indicates strong momentum, although traders should remain cautious due to market Fluctuation.

2. ETH broke through the $3200 mark, and market sentiment turned extremely greedy

The price of Ethereum broke through the $3,200 mark, reaching a new high since August. As of the time of writing, Ethereum is priced at $3,195, with a 24-hour increase of 7.18%. This strong performance has shifted market sentiment to extreme greed.

According to Alternative data, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index reported 78 on November 10th, compared to 75 yesterday, indicating a continued high market sentiment. It has shifted from greed to extreme greed, reaching a new high since June 5th. The index reflects investors' sentiment and expectations for the market. With a score range of 0-100, a score of 78 falls into the extreme greed category.

Analysts pointed out that the pump in the price of Ethereum (ETH) is mainly driven by the BTC bull run. Institutional investment and ETF rise may provide the necessary momentum for ETH to reach higher targets. However, it also faces challenges from BTC's dominant position and uncertainty brought by Whale activity. The next few days are crucial, if BTC remains stable, ETH may lead the capital flow towards AltCoin.

Overall, the breakthrough in the price of Ethereum reflects investors' optimistic sentiment about the prospects of Cryptocurrency. However, there are also certain risks and uncertainties in the market, and investors need to stay rational and closely follow the subsequent developments.

3. Solana ecosystem Token general rise, trading-related activities dominate

Tokens in the Solana ecosystem generally experience a pump, with Token pumping over 30% in the past 24 hours and nearly 100% in the past seven days. As the main DEX in the Sui ecosystem, Fun has just launched a fair issuance platform for MEME Token, facilitating a monthly volume of over 5 million USD.

"Coinbase analyst David Duong pointed out: "Solana's transaction-related activities usually account for 75-90% of on-chain fees, far higher than other networks such as ETH, Base, and Arrum. Although Layer 2 solutions also show rise and innovation, they often face different scalability challenges and user fragmentation issues compared to Solana. Solana's fee dynamics and user activity patterns are still unique."

Analysts believe that the active trading activities within the Solana ecosystem are the main driving force behind the pump in Token prices. Despite the emergence of layer 2 scaling solutions, Solana still has unique advantages in high throughput and low fees. With the launch of more innovative applications, the Solana ecosystem is expected to continue heating up.

However, some analysts have raised questions about the sustainable development of Solana. Some are concerned that, with the development of other public chains, Solana may lose its first-mover advantage. In addition, the high volatility of Solana's ecosystem Token also brings certain risks to investors. Overall, the performance of Solana's ecosystem Token is worth continued follow.

4. Crypto Assets' Market Capitalization Surpasses $2.8 Trillion, Market Sentiment Soars

Driven by the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the total market capitalization of Crypto Assets has surpassed $2.8 trillion, reaching $2.848 trillion with a 3% increase in 24 hours. The data shows that BTC's market capitalization accounts for 55.18%, while Ethereum's market capitalization accounts for 13.6%. The combined market capitalization of the two major cryptocurrencies accounts for nearly 70%.

Alternative data shows that the Cryptocurrency fear and greed index is at 78, in the extreme greed zone, reflecting the high market sentiment. Analysts believe that this is mainly driven by Favourable Information such as the results of the US election and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

Meanwhile, BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw significant net inflows this week, amounting to $1.615 billion and $154.7 million respectively, further boosting the prices of the two major cryptocurrencies.

However, some analysts are cautious about the current bull market. Some believe that the low liquidity over the weekend may have pushed up prices and that a pullback may occur in the future. Others point out that the rise in BTC and Ethereum may cause a flow of funds towards altcoins, leading to a change in market dynamics.

Overall, the Cryptocurrency market is currently in a bull run phase, and investor sentiment is high. But at the same time, it is also necessary to be vigilant about potential risks, do proper Risk Management, and rationally view market Fluctuation.

IV. Project News

1. NEAR AI launches Alpha version, opening a new era of integration between We and AI

NEAR AI is an artificial intelligence platform launched by the NEAR protocol foundation, aiming to combine AI technology with blockchain. Recently, NEAR AI announced the launch of the Alpha version, marking a crucial step forward for this ambitious plan.

The core features of NEAR AI Alpha version include a customizable AI assistant that can connect with other AI agents and services, interact in Web2 and We environments. At the same time, the NEAR AI Research Center will support community building AI research and basic models, with the goal of building a large language model with 1.4 trillion parameters.

As a pioneer in the integration of blockchain and artificial intelligence, NEAR AI is expected to promote innovative development of the We ecosystem. With the support of AI technology, users will get a smarter and more efficient We experience. At the same time, developers can also use NEAR AI to build innovative applications and bring new possibilities to the blockchain world.

Industry insiders are optimistic about the prospects of NEAR AI. Renowned analyst ArkStream said: "NEAR AI represents the perfect combination of blockchain technology and artificial intelligence, and will become a key infrastructure of the We era." Senior investor CryptoWhale believes: "NEAR AI will bring disruptive changes to the entire Crypto Assets industry, and we have every reason to be hopeful for its future."

2. Good news from the Solana ecosystem, volume surged

As a significant force in the Solana ecosystem, it has performed well recently. The Token of this Decentralization exchange has pumped more than 30% in price in the past 24 hours, and the increase in the past 7 days is close to 100%.

Its outstanding performance is closely related to its continuous product innovation. Recently, the exchange has launched the Fair Issuance platform Fun for MemeToken, which has facilitated a monthly volume of over $5 million. In addition, it will serve as the initial pool for SuiNSTokenNS, the domain name service of the Sui ecosystem, and provide relevant incentives on the first day.

As one of the largest volumes in the Solana ecosystem, it has gained a lot of attention from the market. Analyst CryptoWolf says, "Its innovative product line and active community have injected it with the momentum for continuous development. It is becoming an indispensable core infrastructure in the Solana ecosystem."

Meanwhile, other projects in the Solana ecosystem, such as Pyth and Wormhole, have also unveiled new products at this TOKEN2049 conference, demonstrating the vitality of the Solana ecosystem. Analysts generally believe that the continuous innovation of the Solana ecosystem will further consolidate its leading position in the Layer1 field.

3. SUI's ecological diversification, the future of Move language is promising

During the TOKEN2049 conference, the Move language ecosystem, including SUI, Aptos, and Movement, all performed well, especially the big pump of SUI, which triggered widespread follow. As representative projects of the Move language ecosystem, the development of SUI, Aptos, and Movement also reflects the bright prospects of the Move language.

SUI is one of the earlier projects in the Move language ecosystem, and its technical and documentation quality has been widely recognized by industry professionals. With the support of grayscale trusts and Native USDC, SUI is expected to further develop and grow. However, SUI currently has fewer tradable assets and few star projects, which has become a major obstacle to its development.

Compared with SUI, Aptos is facing the problem of lack of clear understanding of its development direction by the community. As the only project in the Move language ecosystem that has not yet launched a coin, Movement's future development is worth continuous follow.

Analysts believe that the future development prospects of the Move language ecosystem are very promising. CryptoWolf said: "The correlation between the Move language and Rust makes it easy for projects in the Solana ecosystem to switch to the Move language camp. This injects new vitality into the Move language ecosystem." ArkStream also believes: "The simultaneous development of the Move language ecosystem is expected to drive the innovative development of the entire blockchain industry."

4. We social innovation is not limited to, the founder shares new perspectives

At the TOKEN2049 conference, WeSocial is still a hot topic. Participants had in-depth discussions on whether WeSocial can achieve mass adoption of blockchain products.

Founder Yawn shared new insights on WeSocial at the meeting. He proposed that how to make social interaction interesting without disrupting the entire ecosystem through the "Connect to Earn" model is an urgent issue that needs to be considered and verified. Previously, Axie Infinity's "Move to Earn" model was very successful in the last Bull Market.

In addition to Axie Infinity, Taki, a Korean entrepreneur in the Warpcast ecosystem, also participated in the discussion. They all believe that although WeChat has experienced repeated failures, it is still an imaginative market, and new participants are constantly driving innovation in this field.

"Analyst CryptoWolf said: "WeSocial is indeed a challenging field, but as long as there is enough innovation, it will eventually become the key to the large-scale adoption of blockchain products." ArkStream believes: "WeSocial needs more time to explore and develop, and we should have enough patience."

5. prediction market track is more followed, and multiple ecological layouts

At the TOKEN2049 conference, the prediction market track once again became the focus. It is understood that more and more ecological projects are incorporating prediction market into their product lines in order to gain new rise momentum.

The prediction market is considered one of the important application scenarios of blockchain technology in the real world. Through the prediction market, users can predict the outcomes of real-world events and receive corresponding rewards. This not only provides users with a new way to make money, but also paves the way for the large-scale application of blockchain technology.

Several well-known analysis agencies are optimistic about the future of the prediction market track. CryptoWolf stated: "Prediction market is an important way for blockchain technology to land in the real world, and its development prospects are very broad." ArkStream believes that "prediction market will become an important entry point to attract the public into the We world."

Overall, the TOKEN2049 conference once again demonstrates the development potential of the prediction market sector. With more and more ecological projects entering this field, the prediction market is expected to become a new growth point for blockchain technology.

V. Economic Trends

1. The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, and Powell released a hawkish signal

Economic Background: The US economy experienced sustained inflationary pressure in 2022, with an interest rate reaching a high of over 9%. To curb inflation, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates seven times since March of last year, bringing the federal funds interest rate target range to a high of 4.25%-4.5%. Nevertheless, the latest data shows that the year-on-year core inflation rate in January rose by 5.6%, higher than expected, indicating that inflationary pressure is still ongoing.

Important event: The Fed announced a 25 basis point rate hike as scheduled this week, raising the federal funds Intrerest Rate target range to 4.5%-4.75%. All 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to support the rate hike decision. The policy statement removed the wording about making progress on inflation and being more confident in achieving the target, reflecting the Fed's cautious attitude towards the inflation situation.

Market reaction: Powell sent a hawkish signal at the press conference, indicating that the pace of interest rate hikes will be accelerated or slowed down based on economic data in the future. Currently, there is high uncertainty, so it is not suitable to provide too much forward-looking guidance. He emphasized gradually moving towards a neutral policy stance, implying that the interest rate hike cycle is not yet over. The market's reaction to Powell's hawkish remarks was muted, with a slight decline in U.S. stocks and a slight increase in the U.S. dollar index.

Expert opinion: Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, stated that Powell's speech was more hawkish than expected, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may raise the Intrerest Rate to a higher level of 5.25%-5.5%. UBS economists believe that Powell's comments reflect the Fed's concerns about the inflation outlook, and they expect the Intrerest Rate to reach a high of 5.1% later this year. Overall, analysts generally believe that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates until inflation significantly slows down.

2. China's January exports unexpectedly rebounded, and the trade surplus reached a record high

Economic Background: In 2022, the Chinese economy slowed down to a low of 3% rise, facing multiple pressures such as the COVID-19 pandemic, real estate crisis, and geopolitical tensions. To cope with the downward economic pressure, the Chinese government has implemented a series of support measures, including infrastructure investment, tax reduction, and fee cuts. At the beginning of 2023, China lifted strict epidemic prevention restrictions that had been in place for a long time, injecting momentum into economic recovery.

Important event: The latest data released by the General Administration of Customs of China shows that China's exports in January rose by 10.6% year-on-year, significantly higher than expected. During the same period, imports declined by 0.7%, and the trade surplus reached $77.69 billion, hitting a new record. The unexpected rebound in exports was mainly due to the peak in dumping driven by the early Spring Festival holiday and the external demand brought by the economic recovery in the United States and Europe.

Market Reaction: The better-than-expected export data reflects the recovering vitality of the Chinese economy, which is conducive to boosting market confidence. Following the announcement of this news, the Chinese yuan has slightly appreciated against the US dollar, with the offshore yuan briefly breaking through the 6.8 level. However, analysts pointed out that the impact of the Spring Festival holiday may fade away in February, and the export situation still needs further observation.

Expert opinion: Chen Li, deputy dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, said that the export data in January exceeded expectations, indicating that the Chinese economy is gradually emerging from the shadows of the epidemic, and the stable recovery trend in foreign trade is expected to continue. However, he also pointed out that the global economic slowdown and geopolitical risks may constrain the rise in exports. Xue Suping, economist for HSBC Greater China, believes that the positive export data reflects the continued strong competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry, but the weak imports indicate that domestic demand recovery remains slow.

3. The Central Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-loose monetary policy unchanged, and the yen depreciates significantly.

Economic background: Japan has long been troubled by low inflation pressure, with a inflation rate of only 3.8% in 2022, far lower than other major economies. In order to stimulate economic rise and raise inflation, the Japanese Central Bank has implemented an ultra-loose monetary policy for many years, maintaining the Interest Rate at an extremely low level, and conducting large-scale bond purchases.

Important event: The Central Bank of Japan will hold the Intrerest Rate resolution meeting this week and decide to maintain the current ultra-loose monetary policy, which is in line with market expectations. Specific measures include maintaining the short-term Intrerest Rate target at -0.1% and the 10-year government bond yield target at around 0%. The Central Bank stated that it will maintain loose policy until the inflation rate stabilizes at the target level of 2%.

Market Reaction: The decision of the Central Bank of Japan to stand still disappointed the market, and the Japanese yen Exchange Rate against the US dollar weakened significantly, falling below the 135 level at one point. Investors are concerned that the divergence in policies between the Central Bank of Japan and other major economies will further intensify the pressure for the yen to depreciate. At the same time, Japanese stocks fell, with the TOPIX index down more than 1%.

Expert view: Nomura Securities' chief bond strategist, Daifu Takahashi, stated that the Bank of Japan's unexpected commitment to an ultra-loose monetary policy will put further pressure on the yen in the short term. Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the Bank of Japan's decision reflects its optimistic outlook on inflation, but if inflation continues to rise in the coming months, the Central Bank may be forced to adjust its policy. UBS analysts point out that the Bank of Japan's stance is in sharp contrast to other central banks, which may cause volatility in the financial markets.

Six. Regulation & Policy

1. The Trump administration may bring new hope to the encryption industry, and Ripple may usher in a turning point

Policy background: With the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election, the cryptocurrency industry is expected to usher in a new regulatory environment. As a defendant of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), XRP has long been embroiled in legal disputes. The SEC accuses XRP of issuing XRP tokens that are unregistered securities.

Policy content: After the Trump administration took office, there may be changes in the regulation of Crypto Assets. The newly appointed SEC chairman is expected to take a more friendly stance, bringing new opportunities for the encryption industry. The dispute between XRP company and SEC is expected to be resolved, and the regulatory status of XRP tokens may be clarified.

Market Reaction: XRP CEO Brad Garlinghouse said that the new regulatory changes will bring more opportunities for the encryption industry. Since the SEC sued XRP, XRP has experienced many setbacks, but as unfavorable market factors recede, the situation is changing and the future prospects of XRP are becoming broader. Garlinghouse thanks the XRP community for their persistence.

Expert opinion: Cryptocurrency analysts believe that the Trump administration may promote regulatory reforms for Cryptocurrency. Some analysts predict that the new SEC leadership will accelerate encryption acquisitions by 2025. Casper Johansen from The Spartan Group and Haseeb Qureshi from Variant Capital both suggest that CEOs may accelerate expansion through acquisitions. Several encryption companies, including Tether, have acquisition plans.

2. The founder of Cardano is willing to cooperate with the Trump administration to formulate cryptocurrency legislation

Policy background: The cryptocurrency industry has long faced regulatory uncertainty and challenges. As the world's largest economy, the United States' regulatory policies have a profound impact on the industry's development. Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano, hopes to collaborate with the new government to establish a clear regulatory framework for the industry.

Policy content: Hoskinson expressed willingness to cooperate with the US government under the leadership of President Trump to help formulate cryptocurrency legislation. His company, Input Output Global (IOG), will establish a separate policy department for cryptocurrency regulation. The office will focus on developing a legislative framework that incorporates provisions from the Financial Innovation and Technology Act of the 21st Century (FIT21) and the Responsible Financial Innovation Act (RFIA).

Market reaction: Hoskinson's plan has gained attention from industry insiders. Some analysts believe that the Republican control of the Senate, presidency, Congress, and the House of Representatives provides an opportunity for clarity in the cryptocurrency industry. Developing positive cryptocurrency policies requires support from both parties.

Expert opinion: Legal experts in the cryptocurrency field believe that Hoskinson's efforts are expected to bring regulatory clarity to the industry. They believe that a clear regulatory framework will help distinguish securities, commodities, and other asset classes in the cryptocurrency, providing legal protection for investors and businesses. However, some experts are concerned that excessive regulation may stifle innovation.

3. SEC Commissioner Calls for Change in Crypto Assets Regulatory Strategy, Aligning with the Trump Administration

Policy background: The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States has long adopted a strict regulatory stance towards the Crypto Assets industry, triggering criticism and dissatisfaction from both inside and outside the industry. With the Trump administration in power, there is hope for a change in the regulatory policy for Crypto Assets.

Policy content: SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda recently called for a change in the agency's Crypto Assets regulatory strategy, aligning with the views of President-elect Trump. Uyeda and colleague Hester Peirce advocate for a more transparent and balanced regulatory approach to create a more inclusive environment for the Crypto Assets industry.

Market Reaction: The remarks of Uyeda and Peirce have sparked a strong market response. Some cryptocurrency enterprises and investors welcome this, believing it may herald a shift in the SEC's attitude towards cryptocurrency, favorable for the industry's long-term development. However, some are concerned that changes in regulatory policy may bring new uncertainties.

Expert opinion: Cryptocurrency legal experts believe that the internal call for reform within the SEC indicates that the institution is reevaluating its regulatory strategy. They believe that the SEC should keep up with the times, adopt a more open and inclusive attitude, promote the innovative development of the cryptocurrency industry, while protecting the interests of investors. However, experts also warn that changes in regulatory policies need to be cautious to avoid regulatory vacuum.