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AI Weekly Highlights Report (8.31-9.6)
You are reading the weekly industry hotspots report generated for you by the gate AI Lab. Check out the most follow-worthy market trends and important events from last week, and get recommended investment analysis and financial strategies for you.
Word count: 9152 words | Reading time 13.6 minutes.
Table of Contents:
1. Market Trend
1.1. Market Sentiment
This week, the total Market Cap of Digital Money reached 2.09 trillion dollars, a decrease of 0.25% compared to the previous period. The volume of exchange rose by 5.2% compared to the previous period, reaching 1.8 trillion dollars. The price of BTC fluctuated around $58,000, with a slight increase in volume. The overall market sentiment is cautious, with the dominant trend being Sideways consolidation. It is expected that there will be a new round of price fluctuation this weekend.
Today's market sentiment is extremely panicked, with fear and greed indexes at 22. The overall market sentiment is extremely depressed, and investor sentiment tends to be pessimistic.
1.2. Macroeconomic Impact
Recent data shows that the pace of global economic recovery is slowing down. Euro area CPI in August pumped by 6.1% year-on-year, in line with expectations, but still at a high level. US CPI in August pumped by 3.2% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.3%, with a month-on-month rise of 0.1%, also lower than the expected 0.2%. US PPI in August pumped by -3.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected -3.6%, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.1%, in line with expectations. The final value of Eurozone manufacturing PMI in August was 49.6, higher than the expected 49.5, but still in the contraction zone. The US manufacturing PMI in August was 46.9, lower than the expected 49.0, remaining in contraction for the eighth consecutive month.
These data reflect a slight easing of inflationary pressures, but the risk of economic slowdown is increasing. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September is 65.5%, while the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 34.5%. The European Central Bank will announce its Interest Rate decision on September 12th. Overall, the monetary policy of major economies is tending to be accommodative, which is beneficial to the cryptocurrency market. However, the risk of economic slowdown may dampen investor risk appetite.
Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) are highly correlated. PPI pump usually transmits to CPI, triggering inflationary pressures. PMI is an economic leading indicator that reflects economic expansion or contraction trends. A decline in PMI indicates an economic slowdown. The trend of macroeconomic data will affect Central Bank's monetary policy, thereby impacting the Cryptocurrency market.
1.3 Financial Calendar
Analysis:
2. Analysis of Fundamentals and Price Fluctuation
2.1. Price Fluctuation Analysis
BTC Weekly Volatility
The weekly Volatility of BTC this week is 2.34%. This value is calculated based on the standard deviation of the Closing Price each day within a week.
Market Analysis
This week, the overall price of BTC has been in a downward channel of falling and rebounding. In the middle of the week, the price of BTC broke through $57,000, mainly driven by institutional investors getting on board and the expectation of unfavorable information from the Fed's interest rate hike. Afterward, there was a certain degree of weak rebound, but it still shook down. The price of BTC continued to fall, with a minimum fall to $55,659.10.
Volume changes and impact
The average daily volume of BTC this week has dropped compared to last week, indicating a drop in market activity. The decrease in volume often means a more balanced strength between long and short positions, and a narrowing of price fluctuations. However, BTC still maintains a relatively high daily trading volume, and there is still some upward momentum in the long term.
Market activity and price direction
This week, the price of BTC is in a downward oscillation space, but overall it is still above $55,000. From a technical perspective, the BTC price is still above the rise trend line and is expected to continue the pump trend. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the impact of macroeconomics and geopolitics, among other factors.
2.2. Funding Analysis
According to the latest data, the fund flows of BTC and Ethereum show different trends. The fund inflows and outflows of BTC are relatively balanced, indicating that investors are cautious about it. However, there has been a large-scale outflow of funds from Ethereum, reflecting investors' concerns about its prospects.
On the other hand, alternative tokens like MASK and RENDER have attracted a large influx of funds. This may be due to investors seeking higher risk and return. Overall, while the activity in the cryptocurrency market has declined, there are still some bright spots.
At the same time, institutional investors appear to be gradually increasing their investment in Cryptocurrency. According to reports, some large Hedging funds and venture capital firms are building Cryptocurrency portfolios. This may bring more Liquidity and stability to the market.
However, the sentiment of retail investors remains cautious. Discussions on social media indicate that they are waiting for a more favorable entry point. Overall, there is still uncertainty about the future direction of the cryptocurrency market, and investors need to closely follow the fundamentals and regulatory trends.
2.3. Smart Money Analysis
BTC Smart Money inflows of BTC are relatively large, indicating that institutional investors are accumulating on dips. BTC is currently in a phase of oscillating upward, with a slight increase in open interest from large funds, and it is expected to maintain a pattern of long positions in the future.
ETH The outflow of Smart Money in ETH is relatively large, indicating that institutional investors are gradually reducing their positions. Currently, there is significant selling pressure on ETH, and the open interest of large funds has decreased, indicating that the market is expected to maintain a volatile and bearish pattern in the future.
LTC Smart Money inflow of LTC is relatively large, indicating that institutional investors are building a position at low levels. The support for LTC is currently strong, and there has been some increase in open interest of large funds. It is expected that the market will maintain a pattern of upward volatility in the future.
XRP The Smart Money outflow of XRP is relatively large, indicating that institutional investors are gradually reducing their positions. Currently, there is a large selling pressure on XRP, and the open interest of large funds has decreased. It is expected that the market will maintain a bearish trend in the future.
SOL The Smart Money inflow of SOL is relatively large, indicating that institutional investors are building positions at lows. SOL currently has strong support, with an increase in open interest from large funds. It is expected that the market will maintain a pattern of oscillating upward.
3. Hot Topics
Cryptocurrency Election: Trump vs Harris, who will dominate the future?
Trump Camp: Savior of Crypto Assets
According to recent public opinion data, the election battle between former US President Trump and current Vice President Harris has become a hot topic of discussion in the Cryptocurrency community. The Trump camp firmly believes that if Trump can be re-elected, it will be beneficial to the development of the Cryptocurrency industry.
"Trump's victory will undoubtedly bring spring to Crypto Assets." Well-known analyst Crypto Koryo said, "He will promote the relaxation of Crypto Assets regulation and create a more free development environment for the industry."
In fact, Trump has repeatedly expressed support for Crypto Assets during his tenure and sees them as a beneficial addition to the TradFi system. On the eve of the 2024 election, Trump even launched his own NFT series, which sparked widespread attention in the market.
Data shows that after Trump launched the NFT series, meme coins related to it, such as TRUMP and MAGA, have experienced a significant price pump. "This will undoubtedly further stimulate the enthusiasm of Trump supporters and win him more votes in the election," said Polymarket analyst Mia.
Harris Camp: Upholding Traditional Order
In contrast, the Harris camp has a more cautious attitude towards Crypto Assets. Once Harris is elected, it is widely expected that regulations will be further tightened.
"After Harris takes office, the cryptocurrency industry may face stricter regulation," former SEC chairman Jay Clayton said. He believes that the Harris administration may limit the development space of cryptocurrency to maintain the stability of the TradFi system.
The data shows that since Harris announced his candidacy, the prices of mainstream cryptocurrencies such as BTC have experienced a certain degree of decline. Analysts believe that this reflects the market's concerns about the strict regulatory measures Harris may adopt.
"If Harris is elected, we may see more regulatory pressure." Crypto Assets Hedging fund manager Galois added, "This may hinder the innovative development of the Crypto Assets industry."
Market Fluctuation, who will dominate the future?
Whether it is Trump or Harris who ultimately wins, it will have a profound impact on the Crypto Assets market. In recent days, as the election date approaches, the market Fluctuation has intensified.
According to CoinDesk's data, in the past week, the price of BTC has experienced violent Fluctuation between $56,700 and $58,000. Analyst Valentin Fournier stated, "Economic reports increasingly suggest that we should not ignore the risk of economic recession, given the current economic uncertainty and the possibility of reduced Liquidity, we recommend reducing exposure to BTC."
Meanwhile, analysts such as Alex Kuptsikevich have expressed concerns about Bitcoin's weakness, seeing it as a warning signal for traditional risk assets.
Overall, the cryptocurrency market is currently in a state of uncertainty. The outcome of the showdown between Trump and Harris will directly determine the future regulatory direction, thereby affecting the development prospects of the entire industry. Regardless of who ultimately wins, it will bring new opportunities and challenges for cryptocurrency.
4. Main Events
Top 15 Major Impact Events Recently
5. Global News
According to news from August 30 to September 6, 2024, the following are the new political dynamics, economic policies, and regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry, as well as the analysis of their impact on the industry and the market:
Political Dynamics
Telegram founder Pavel Durov arrested in France
Prospects for the US Election
Economic Policy
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy
Regulatory Updates
The United States Approves BTC and ETH Spot ETFs
Summary
In conclusion, the current political, economic, and regulatory environment has had a significant impact on the development of the Crypto Assets industry. Factors such as the outcome of the US presidential election, the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, SpotETF regulation, etc., will determine the future market trends. The industry's development also faces potential resistance from governments around the world, and the application of digital privacy and encryption technology may be restricted.
6. Investment Analysis
6.1. Investment Recommendation
Please note that these suggestions are based solely on current market analysis and are not financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on individual risk preferences and investment objectives.
6.2 Investment Strategy
The popular Token this week, MBAPPE, is a Meme coin released by Hacker, which carries a significant risk. Its price fluctuates drastically and has no actual value. A trader bought MBAPPE for just 0.2 SOL and sold it at a high price of 866.13 SOL after 3 minutes, gaining a return of 4,330 times. However, the speculative nature of Meme coins like MBAPPE poses extremely high risks, and ordinary investors should exercise extra caution when participating.
Summary: High-risk, high-return Meme coins are suitable for experienced speculators, and ordinary investors should stay away from this type of Token.
Grid Trading robots use grid trading strategies to profit from price fluctuations, with a relatively balanced risk-reward ratio. Trend tracking robots track major trends, offering larger profit potential but also greater fluctuations. Arbitrage trading robots profit from price differences across different exchanges, with smaller fluctuations but limited returns. Mean reversion robots employ a strategy based on price mean reversion, offering moderate risk and moderate returns. Depth learning Algorithmic trading robots utilize artificial intelligence algorithms, providing the highest potential returns but also the highest risk.
Summary: The performance of quantitative strategy robots varies depending on the strategy, and investors can choose according to their own risk preferences.
6.3. Financial Management Products
Simple Earn
Simple Earn helps match users with idle assets and borrowing needs. After purchasing Simple Earn, the system will determine whether the borrowing is successful and the Interest Rate for that hour based on the user's set Intrerest Rate and actual borrowing needs at every o'clock. Successful borrowing can generate Interest for that hour. Simple Earn supports user-customized Intrerest Rates, allowing users to set the minimum lending Intrerest Rate at the time of purchase. After successful borrowing is determined at every o'clock, the profit is calculated based on the determined Intrerest Rate. Simple Earn supports flexible deposits and withdrawals, allowing for anytime purchase and redemption within 24 hours.
The total amount of USDT in the Yubibao is 10.18 billion USDT, with an estimated Annual Percentage Rate of 2.59%+8.87%.
Financial Management Treasure
The Wealth Management Service is a one-stop comprehensive wealth management service center established by Gate.io Finance, including current, fixed-term, and all other wealth management schemes, providing users with hundreds of Digital Money financial products of multiple types. Different wealth management products may have different profit rules, and profits will be calculated based on the specified annualized Intrerest Rate.
Structured Investment
Gate.io structured financial management is a new financial product based on a combination of fixed income and financial derivatives such as Options. It is generally determined by comparing the performance of the underlying asset with the specified reference price during the investment period to determine the level of settlement yield, and can be divided into capital preservation and aggressive types. Users can purchase products with specified investment periods based on their desired yield, Standard Money, etc., and generally redeem the principal and interest through settlement at maturity.
4. Market Intrerest Rate
Note:
Disclaimer: The above data is provided by a third party and may be delayed and biased. This report is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors enter the market at their own risk based on this information.
6.4. Bollinger Band Technical Trading Strategy Backtest Analysis
Bollinger Bands is a commonly used Technical Analysis indicator that identifies potential Overbought or Oversold conditions by calculating the standard deviation of prices. This article will backtest the Bollinger Bands technical trading strategy and summarize its performance in the ETH market.
Backtest Settings
Backtesting Results
Strategy Analysis
In terms of yield, the strategy achieved a total return of 36.72% during the backtesting period, with an Annual Percentage Rate of about 17%, which is still respectable. However, it is also important to note that the maximum drawdown rate reached 21.35%, indicating high volatility. 2. There were a total of 68 transactions, which means that transaction costs such as commissions will have a certain impact on the final returns. 3. The success rate of long positions trading is slightly higher than that of short positions trading, which may be related to the overall pump trend of ETH during the backtesting period. 4. As a lagging indicator, the Bollinger Bands may lag in the event of intense Fluctuation, affecting the timing of trades. 5. The strategy does not consider other technical or fundamental factors, relying solely on Bollinger Bands may involve certain risks.
Summary
The Bollinger Band technical trading strategy performs moderately in the ETH market, with both return and Volatility at a moderate level. The strategy is relatively simple to operate, but it also has some flaws, such as lag and the neglect of other factors. In actual trading, it can be combined with other technical indicators or Fundamental Analysis and optimized and adjusted according to the actual market conditions to achieve better trading performance.