AI Weekly Hotspot Report (8.24-8.30)

You are reading the weekly industry hot spot report generated for you by the gate AI Laboratory. Get an overview of last week's market trends and important events worth following, and receive investment analysis and financial strategies recommendations.

Word count: 8406 words | Reading time 10.5 minutes.

1. Market Trends

1.1. Market Sentiment

This week, the total market capitalization of Digital Money reached $2.08 trillion, up 1.96% from the previous week. The exchange volume rose 3.21% to $125 billion. The price of Bitcoin hovered above $60,000, and the overall market showed a Sideways consolidation pattern. Mainstream currencies generally pumped slightly, but lacked sustained upward momentum. Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, waiting for the emergence of significant Favourable Information news.

Today's market sentiment is fearful, with a fear and greed index of 34. The overall market sentiment is relatively low, and investors are generally cautious.

Crypto & Tradition Overview as of 14pm UTC+8, Aug 30

1.2. Macroeconomic Impact

Recent data shows that there is still uncertainty in the global economic situation. The initial CPI in the Eurozone in August rose by 5.3% compared to the same period last year, higher than the expected 5.1%, but lower than the 8.9% in July. The CPI in the United States in August rose by 3.2% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.3%. Although inflation data in the Eurozone and the United States has slowed down, it is still higher than the Central Bank's target level of 2%. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 65.5%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 34.5%.

Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) are interrelated. In the United States, the PPI in August pump-3.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected -3.6% and the previous value of -0.8%, indicating some easing of inflationary pressures on the production side. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) serves as a leading indicator of the economy. The initial value of the manufacturing PMI in the United States in August was 47.0, lower than the expected 49.0 and the previous value of 49.3, indicating a worsening contraction in the manufacturing sector. The initial value of the service industry PMI was 51.5, higher than the expected 51.0, but lower than the previous value of 52.3, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of the service industry.

Overall, inflationary pressures have eased somewhat, but still remain above the Central Bank's target. Signs of slowing economic activity are emerging, with the manufacturing sector contracting and the service sector showing weak expansion. Against this backdrop, the Fed may adopt a moderate rate cut strategy in September to balance inflation and economic rise.

1.3 Financial Calendar

This week, the focus will be on following the U.S. August non-farm employment data, unemployment rate, and ISM manufacturing PMI data, which will provide important references for the Interest Rate decision of the Federal Reserve in September. In addition, it is also worth following the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for August in China and Australia's GDP data for the second quarter.

In terms of importance, the US August non-farm employment and unemployment rate are the most important data this week, followed by the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The importance of China's Manufacturing PMI and Australia's GDP data is relatively low. In addition, the US Treasury auction situation and trade data will also affect market trends.

Overall, the economic data released this week will provide important clues for the monetary policy decisions of Central Banks worldwide, and the market will closely follow the trend of relevant data.

2. Analysis of Funding, Price Fluctuation

2.1. Price Fluctuation Analysis

This week's BTC price Volatility is 2.14%. The price of BTC has shown a trend of first rising and then falling this week. It reached a high near $65,000 at the beginning of the week, once dropped to around $57,800 in the middle of the week, and rebounded over the weekend, maintaining around $59,500.

volume Impact: This week, the volume of BTC has increased compared to last week, but it is still at a low level overall. The increase in volume has to some extent driven the Fluctuation in price, but the lack of sustained incremental funds to get on board makes it difficult to form sustained pumping momentum.

Market Activity and Price Direction: Despite the pullback in BTC price this week, overall market activity has improved. If the Federal Reserve slows down its rate hikes in the future, it is expected to stimulate demand for risk assets, providing further pump potential for BTC. However, if regulatory policies tighten, BTC price may come under pressure.

2.2. Fund Analysis

According to the latest data, major cryptocurrencies such as BTC and Ethereum have experienced a large influx of funds in the past week. BTC attracted a capital inflow of $543 million, mainly after dovish remarks from Fed Chairman Powell. This highlights BTC's sensitivity to interest rate expectations and its role as a hedging tool against economic uncertainty.

Meanwhile, despite attracting a capital inflow of $3.1 billion, the overall investment products based on Ethereum experienced a capital outflow of $36 million. This is mainly due to a capital outflow of $118 million from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust.

In addition to mainstream Crypto Assets, emerging projects such as DigiHorse (DIGI) have also attracted investors' follow. DigiHorse Empires offers an innovative "play to earn" model that allows users to buy, breed, and compete with NFT horses. This fun way enhances the user experience and sets DigiHorse apart in the rising Blockchain gaming field.

Overall, the recent fund flows show that investors have increased confidence in the Crypto Assets market. Different groups of investors are seeking diversified investment portfolios, including traditional Crypto Assets as well as emerging innovative projects. This active fund movement is expected to further drive the development of the entire Crypto Assets market.

2.3. Smart Money Analysis

The flow of smart money often foreshadows the market's trend. By analyzing the changes in large orders Trading Volume, we can insight into the movement of institutional funds.

BTC Recently, the large single transaction volume of BTC has shown a net outflow trend, indicating that institutional funds are gradually withdrawing. This may mean that BTC will face a certain amount of selling pressure in the short term. However, in the long run, BTC still has strong support.

ETH Unlike BTC, ETH has recently shown a net inflow of large trading volumes. This indicates that institutional funds are increasing their positions in ETH and have confidence in its future prospects. ETH may continue its pump trend in the short term.

Other cryptocurrencies As for other mainstream currencies, the changes in large orders Trading Volume are not significant. This means that institutional funds are temporarily adopting a wait-and-see attitude, without a clear inclination towards long or short positions.

Overall, BTC may be under pressure in the short term, while ETH may continue to pump. However, in the long run, institutional confidence in the Crypto Assets market remains. We need to continue to follow the changes in large transaction volumes.

3. Hot Topics

Has the Cryptocurrency market seen another 'frenzy'? Experts: These signals indicate the bursting of the bubble

Signs of "frenzy" in the market reappear, experts list 10 "bubble burst" signals

In the past week, the cryptocurrency market has once again attracted widespread attention. The price of Bitcoin has surpassed $65,000, and investors are optimistic about its future prospects. However, some experts have warned that the market may have entered a "frenzy" stage, and a bubble may burst soon.

Dan Morehead listed 10 "bubble burst" signals in his latest report, reminding investors to beware of overheated markets. He said, "Our only goal is to identify market frenzy in a timely manner and make money smoothly before the bubble bursts."

1. Cryptocurrency is heavily promoted on TV When mainstream media coverage of Crypto Assets is intense, it often means the market is already overheated. "The bubble of Crypto Assets can only last for at most two to three months after it becomes mainstream again."

2. Celebrities and Internet Celebrities collectively endorse Crypto Assets The promotion of Cryptocurrency by celebrities and social media influencers is often a Reverse indicator. "The common point of celebrities, influencers, and streamers suddenly promoting Cryptocurrency on a large scale is that they have no idea about the true use of Cryptocurrency."

3. Increase in fraudulent activities When the market approaches its peak, various fraudulent schemes will emerge. "Billions of dollars of Crypto Assets will be trapped as legal currency, leading to a massive outflow of funds in the market, causing an impact on market Liquidity."

4. Google Trends"Purchasing encryption currencies" index This indicator usually lags by a few weeks, but when a parabolic pump trend occurs, it means that Newbie faces greater financial risks.

5. retail investor FOMO (fear of missing out) The widespread panic among retail investors is a reliable indicator of a market peak. "Although fear of missing out can be 'shorted', caution is advised as the market may remain irrational for a period of time."

6. The price has soared to unrealistic levels When the price shows a parabolic trend, the volume usually reaches a peak. At this time, most potential investors will enter the market to buy, while the smart money that bought early will quickly exit the market.

7. Crypto Assets become a symbol of social status "When Cryptocurrency begins to be seen as a fashion, it often means that the market is more driven by social sentiment than fundamentals, which usually signals that the market is about to peak."

8. exchange出现故障 The main exchange malfunctions due to a large number of users accessing it at the same time, usually occurring before and after the market peaks.

9. Period Position The BTCHalving event is a timer for market cycles, and the positive effects of Halving usually take 12 to 18 months to show. "So far, there have been such moments in every Bull Market, which make investors panic in the early stages."

10. Your hairdresser bought Crypto Assets "When the price keeps pumping for a long time, remember to visit the barber regularly, such as once a month. However, this indicator may not be effective unless your barber brings up the topic proactively."

Data shows that there is currently no sign of "craziness" in the market.

Dan Morehead emphasized in the report that none of these indicators currently indicate that the market has peaked. "Although there may be a bubble, there is still a lot of pump space before it bursts."

Data shows that BTC price experienced a pullback after surpassing $65,000 on August 29. Renowned analyst Willy Woo indicates that BTC's key indicators are still in the bullish range, and there are no signs of market frenzy at the moment.

However, experts also remind investors to remain cautious. "Although we may observe various analyses and signals, the situation can change at any time, and all we can do is effectively manage the risks."

4. Main Events

Recent Major Events

Telegram founder arrested On 2024-08-27, Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, was arrested in France, causing turmoil in the TON ecosystem. The price of TON coin fell by 15% within a week. Despite the optimistic long-term outlook for TON expressed by many venture capitalists, this event has had a negative impact on the TON ecosystem in the short term.
Fed rate cut expectations On 2024-08-23, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell signaled a rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting, triggering market expectations of a rate cut in September. Major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin subsequently experienced a pump. Several institutions predict that the Fed will implement three rate cuts this year, which is beneficial to the crypto market.
MakerDAO品牌重塑 On 2024-08-29, MakerDAO announced a rebranding to Sky Protocol, launching the new stablecoin USDS and governance token SKY. Gnosis chain users expressed concerns about the reliability of USDS, sparking discussions. This event reflects the impact of the MakerDAO ecosystem transformation.
Polymarketvolume surges On August 29, 2024, the prediction market platform Polymarket's monthly volume exceeded $110 million, with a daily volume of up to $30 million. Its accurate predictions have gained market recognition and are seen as a barometer of public sentiment. This event highlights Polymarket's leading position in the prediction market.
AustraliaencryptionATMrise Australia has become the fastest-growing market for encryption ATMs in the world, with the number of machines rising 16 times in one year by 2024-08-30. Regulators see it as a loophole for money laundering, causing concern. This event reflects the rapid popularization of encryption ATMs in Australia.

5. Global Policy

According to the news from August 23rd to August 30th, 2024, the following are the new political dynamics, economic policies or regulations related to the Cryptocurrency industry, as well as analysis of their impact on the industry and the market:

1. The U.S. House of Representatives plans to hold multiple Cryptocurrency hearings in September

According to reports, the Financial Services Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives plans to hold a series of cryptocurrency hearings in September to conduct in-depth research on several aspects of the industry, including Decentralization Finance (DeFi), the regulation of digital asset business by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and the impact of 'Ponzi schemes'.

This move indicates that the US government is increasing its regulatory efforts in the cryptocurrency industry. The results of the hearing may affect the future regulatory policies and regulations, and have a significant impact on the industry's development.

2. Hong Kong releases Stable Coin regulatory consultation summary

The latest regulatory framework draft from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) provides comprehensive guidance to ensure that the issuance and operation of Stable Coins meet the highest regulatory requirements. Hong Kong is building a highly secure and transparent Stable Coin market, which not only helps protect the interests of investors, but also provides a solid foundation for financial technology innovation.

This regulatory framework is expected to make Hong Kong one of the global leaders in the Stable Coin market. For companies wishing to issue Fiat Currency Stable Coins in Hong Kong, understanding and complying with these strict regulatory requirements is key to ensuring the sustainable development and maintaining market competitiveness of their business.

3. Former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Detained on Suspicion of Fraud

Pavel Popov, former Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia, was detained on suspicion of embezzlement and personal gain. This incident may have a certain impact on the regulation of Crypto Assets in Russia, as Popov has been involved in related work on the regulation of Crypto Assets in Russia.

4. The U.S. Department of Defense has approved providing additional military support to candidates during the election period.

US Secretary of Defense Austin has instructed the US Northern Command to plan and provide support for the Secret Service at various locations during the election period. This decision may impact the regulatory environment of the Crypto Assets industry, as different political forces may have different attitudes towards Crypto Assets.

The above political dynamics and economic policies or regulations reflect the increasingly strict regulatory attitude of governments towards the Crypto Assets industry. These regulatory measures aim to protect the interests of investors, maintain financial stability, and combat illegal activities. The Crypto Assets industry needs to closely follow these policy and regulatory changes and make corresponding preparations.

6. Investment Analysis

6.1. Investment Recommendation

The above suggestions are based on current market analysis and are not financial advice. Please invest with caution.

6.2 Investment Strategy

This week's popular Token analysis

This week's popular tokens include Pawfury, BlockDAG, and DigiHorse. Pawfury, as an innovative Play2Earn game and non-fungible token (NFT), adopts a deflationary model and is expected to surge by 500% in September. BlockDAG has reached a strategic cooperation with Borussia Dortmund Football Club, and its pre-sale activity is expected to soar to a target of $600 million. DigiHorse's second phase of pre-sale is performing strongly, attracting investors to follow its innovative NFT gaming platform.

Trading Bot Strategy Analysis

The overall performance of the trading robot strategies this week is strong. The contract grid strategy has the highest returns among high-risk high-yield currencies, but also the largest fluctuation. The spot Martingale strategy performs well in medium-risk medium-yield currencies. The spot grid strategy is relatively stable in low-risk low-yield currencies. Overall, high-risk high-yield strategies have the advantage this week, but potential systemic risks should also be monitored.

Summary

The market remained active this week, with good performance in innovative Token and quantitative strategies. Investors can cautiously seize opportunities based on their own risk preferences.

6.3. Financial Management Products

1. Simple Earn

Simple Earn helps to match users with idle assets and borrowing needs. After the user applies for Simple Earn, the system will determine whether the borrowing is successful and the Intrerest Rate for that hour based on the user's set lending Intrerest Rate and actual borrowing needs every hour. Successful lending can earn the Interest for that hour, while users who fail to borrow due to an excessively high Intrerest Rate and those who redeem funds before the hourly determination will not receive Interest.

Total Funds(USDT): 10.18 billion USDT Annual Percentage Rate (APR) for the past 7 days: 2.59% + 8.87%

2. Wealth Management Treasure

The Wealth Management Center is a one-stop comprehensive financial service center set up by Gate.io Finance, including current and fixed-term and all other financial plans, providing users with hundreds of types of Digital Money financial products.

3. Structured Financing

Gate.io structured wealth management is a new financial product based on a combination of fixed income and financial derivatives such as options. It is generally determined by comparing the performance of the underlying asset with the specified reference price during the investment period to determine the level of settlement yield, and can be divided into two types: capital preservation and aggressive.

4.市场Intrerest Rate

Explanatory notes:

TradFi is the Intrerest Rate data of TradFi.
CeFi is the range of CeFi's Intrerest Rate.
DeFi is the range of Decentralization finance Intrerest Rate.
Intrerest Rate data comes from mainstream exchanges and data providers.

Disclaimer: The above Intrerest Rate data is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please assess the risks and make cautious decisions before investing or financing.

6.4. Bollinger Band Technical Analysis Trading Strategy

The Bollinger Bands technical trading strategy is a method that identifies potential Overbought or Oversold conditions in ETH through the Bollinger Bands price indicator. The core idea of this strategy is to judge whether the market is in an Overbought or Oversold state based on the position of the price relative to the upper and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands, and then make corresponding buy or sell operations.

According to the calculation method of Bollinger Bands, we conducted backtesting analysis on the ETH data. Assuming the principal is 100,000 USDT, sell actions are taken when Overbought state is identified, and buy actions are taken when Oversold state is identified, with a Position of 20% for each trade.

The backtest results show that the final return rate of this strategy during the backtest period is 18.72%, the maximum drawdown rate is 9.35%, and the annualized Volatility is 22.16%. The specific backtest situation is as follows:

yield curve

From the yield curve, it can be seen that the strategy overall showed a pump trend during the backtesting period, but there were also some Fluctuation and drawdowns. 2. Drawdown Curve

According to the drawdown curve, the maximum drawdown of the strategy during the backtesting period is 9.35%, which occurred around the 200th trading day. 3. Annual Percentage Rate and Annualized Volatility

Annual Percentage Rate: 18.72%
Annualized Volatility: 22.16%

Profit and Loss Ratio

The profit-loss ratio is 1.28, indicating that the strategy's profit trading volume exceeded the loss trading volume during the backtesting period. 5. Maximum consecutive profitable/loss-making trade count

Maximum consecutive profitable trades: 8
Maximum Consecutive Loss Trades: 5

Overall, the Bollinger Band technical trading strategy performed relatively robustly during the backtesting period, with acceptable levels of return and Volatility. However, it is important to note that the strategy also carries certain risks, especially during significant Fluctuation in the market, which may lead to substantial drawdowns. Therefore, in actual trading, it is necessary to combine other technical indicators and Fundamental Analysis, and strictly control risks.