AI Weekly Industry Highlights Report (8.17-8.23)

You are reading the weekly industry hotspots report generated for you by the gate AI Lab. Review last week's most worthy follow market trends and important events, and recommend investment analysis and financial strategies for you.

Word count: 8830 characters | Reading time 12.8 minutes.

1. Market Trends

1.1. Market Sentiment

This week, the total market capitalization of Digital Money reached 28.5 trillion dollars, a decrease of 2.79% compared to the previous period. The exchange volume rose by 5.21% compared to the previous period, reaching 13.2 trillion dollars. BTC's total market capitalization accounted for 56.2%, and the price fluctuated around 16,800 dollars. The overall market sentiment is cautious, with the dominant trend being sideways consolidation.

Today's market sentiment is "panic", with a fear and greed index of 34, indicating a relatively low market sentiment. Investors are cautious about the market outlook and need to closely follow the subsequent trends.

Crypto & Tradition Overview as of 10pm UTC+8, Aug 23

1.2. Macro Economic Impact

Recent data shows that the global economic recovery is slowing down. The initial value of the PMI in the United States in August was 51.5, lower than the expected 52.0, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of the manufacturing industry. The initial value of the PMI in the Eurozone in August was 49.8, lower than the expected 50.3, and the manufacturing industry fell into the contraction zone. The year-on-year PPI in the United States in July pumped 0.8%, lower than the expected 1.1%, indicating some easing of inflationary pressures. The year-on-year PPI in the Eurozone in July pumped 0.1%, far below the expected 2.1%.

US August CPI pumped 3.2% YoY, lower than the expected 3.3%. Eurozone August CPI pumped 6.8% YoY, higher than the expected 6.7%. Inflationary pressures persist but have slowed down. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September is 65%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike is 35%. The European Central Bank may raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in September.

Overall, the global economy has insufficient momentum to rise, and inflationary pressures have eased. The pace of monetary policy tightening may slow down. This is favorable for the recovery of the crypto assets market, but inflation and geopolitical risks still need to be monitored.

1.3 Financial Calendar

Analysis summary:

This week will see the release of a number of important economic data, including US July durable goods orders, final GDP for the second quarter in Germany, US API crude oil inventories, and Australia's July CPI annual rate. Among them, the US July core PCE price index annual rate and the final value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in August are the most important data to follow, which will affect the market's expectations for a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The initial value of the August CPI monthly rate in Germany and the initial jobless claims in the US will also be closely followed by the market. In addition, China's industrial enterprise profit data will reflect the domestic economic situation. Investors need to closely follow the above-mentioned data in order to grasp the market trends.

2. Fluctuation analysis of capital and price

2.1. Price Fluctuation Analysis

BTC weekly Volatility Based on the daily Closing Price of BTC in the past week, the weekly Volatility of BTC is 3.21%.

Price rise and reasons This week, the price of BTC fluctuated within the range of $65,000 to $70,000. The price pump is mainly driven by continuous buying from institutional investors and the influx of funds brought by the approval of BTC ETF. The price decline is influenced by uncertainty in the macroeconomic situation.

volume changes affect An increase in volume usually means higher market activity. The average daily volume of BTC this week rose by 15.78% compared to last week, indicating a high level of market participation enthusiasm. The increase in volume may also lead to intensified price fluctuations.

Market Activity and Price Direction The activity of BTC traders' addresses and the number of newly added wallet addresses have both increased, reflecting the rise in market activity. At the same time, the number of long-term holder addresses is also increasing, which may indicate that bullish sentiment is prevailing. Therefore, BTC may continue its pump trend in the short term.

2.2. Fund Analysis

BTC capital flow According to the data, the inflow and outflow of funds in BTC are relatively balanced. This indicates that investors have relatively equal bullish and bearish sentiments towards Bitcoin, and the market is in a consolidation phase. However, the net inflow of funds from institutional investors has increased, indicating an optimistic outlook for the long-term prospects of Bitcoin.

ETH capital flow The outflow of funds from Ethereum is slightly greater than the inflow, reflecting investors' cautious attitude towards the short-term trend of ETH. However, the outflow of funds from ETH ETF has decreased, indicating institutional investors' recognition of the long-term value of Ethereum. Overall, the funding situation of ETH remains relatively stable.

Alts capital flow The capital flow in the AltCoin market is showing a divided trend. Popular tokens like FRONT and RENDER have attracted a large influx of funds, reflecting investors' positive expectations for these tokens. On the other hand, some small Market Cap Tokens have experienced capital outflows, indicating a drop in investor risk appetite.

Overall, the funding situation in the Cryptocurrency market remains active, reflecting investors' optimistic sentiment towards the future of Cryptocurrency. However, there is still a certain level of fluctuation risk in the short term, and investors need to closely follow market trends.

2.3. Smart Money Analysis

The flow of smart money often predicts the market trend. By analyzing large orders, trading volume and fund flows, we can gain insights into the movements of institutional investors.

BTC: Recently, the trading volume of large BTC orders has increased, indicating that institutional investors are gradually building a position. However, there is also some selling pressure, indicating that some funds are taking profits. Overall, the support is slightly stronger than the selling pressure, and it is expected that BTC will maintain a volatile upward trend in the short term.

ETH：The big order Trading Volume of ETH is relatively stable, and institutional investors are temporarily taking a wait-and-see attitude. However, with the continuous development of the ETH ecosystem and the enrichment of application scenarios, it is expected to attract more funds. In the medium and long term, there is still a significant pump space for ETH.

Other currencies: Recently, the trading volume of some popular public chain currencies such as SOL and AVAX has significantly increased, indicating that institutional investors are increasing their layout. Some emerging concept currencies such as AI and Web3 have also attracted a lot of capital inflows. Overall, market funds are concentrating on high-quality projects.

In summary, the current market sentiment tends to be optimistic, and funds are gradually flowing into high-quality projects. However, there may still be some fluctuation in the short term, so investors need to be cautious.

3. Hot Topics

DOGE battles Shiba, who will become the king of memecoin?

Dogecoin Miner holdings reach a new high, bullish market in sight

According to IntoTheBlock's data, the holding of DOGE Miner has increased by nearly 4%, reaching over 4.5 billion DOGE Token. In just the past 20 days, Miners have expanded their holdings by an additional 140 million DOGE Token. Analysts see this as a significant development for DOGE, which along with the decrease in Token supply, may trigger a new bullish market.

Further confirmation of this comes from data from the analysis platform Santiment, showing a stock-to-flow ratio of 69.25, representing a significant increase in demand. In addition, the project's social media activity has also reached an all-time high, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently mentioned the project on Twitter. Based on these bullish factors, the project may target a level of $0.16 in the coming days.

Shib is committed to a community-centered future

As the world's second-largest memecoin, Shib has a market capitalization of over $8 billion, led by Shytoshi Kusama and Kaal Dhairya. In the latest development of Shib, the project's chief developer announced that there will be significant changes. The founder announced that they intend to step down from their position and transfer control of the platform back to the Shiba Inu community. This milestone will make Shib the first decentralized project.

Since the announcement, Shib's investors have expressed confidence in the project. The project has seen huge profits on the annual chart, with the current Token price at $0.00001374, pumping 65% compared to the same period last year. However, in the short term, the Token still faces high volatility, and there is a possibility of long-term consolidation between the next pump.

TON's new star DOGS triggers market frenzy

Recently, the new star DOGS in the TON ecosystem has caused a sensation in the Cryptocurrency market. According to the data from Gate.io exchange, the volume of DOGS in the past 24 hours has exceeded 100 million US dollars, and the transaction price has once exceeded 0.003 US dollars. The total amount of DOGS is 550 billion, and the estimated Market Cap at the current value exceeds 1.4 billion US dollars, a Market Cap that will place it in the top 50 of all Cryptocurrencies.

DOGS holds more than 40 million Address coins, but how many new encryption users can be converted still needs to be observed. Although DOGS has performed well, investors should pay attention to its high volatility and potential risks. Analysts believe that the launch of DOGS may affect the performance of other projects in the TON ecosystem and drive the overall popularity of the ecosystem.

4. Main Events

Here are the top 12 events that have had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market in the past seven days:

2024-08-23 ETH inflation increase On August 23, 2024, on-chain analyst Yu Jin stated that the total supply of ETH increased by 228,000 coins, or approximately $602 million, in the past 4 and a half months, with an average of 1,652 coins per day. Due to the drop in on-chain activity, ETH Gas has remained below 2 Gwei for a long time, resulting in an inflationary state where the output of ETH exceeds its destruction. If the on-chain activity of ETH continues to be sluggish in the future, the annual inflation will reach 600,000 coins, worth $1.59 billion, with an inflation rate of 0.5%.

2024-08-23 Optimism Award On August 23, 2024, Optimism announced that 50 million OPTokens have been rewarded to the creators and builders of Superchain. The Retro Funding program has just begun.

2024-08-23 Aave forms a sell signal On August 23, 2024, an analyst pointed out that Aave is currently forming a bearish pattern, which has led to an average of 27% retracement in the past four occurrences. The analyst believes that Aave is likely to see a similar decline this time.

2024-08-22 Simons Cat Opening On August 22, 2024, Simons Cat (CAT) opened on-chain at 0.00002022 USD, and is now trading at 0.00001348 USD. Currently, the market capitalization is 120 million USD, and the volume is 44.38 million USD.

2024-08-22 BlackRock Chief Investment Officer On 2024-08-22, Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of BlackRock, stated that the Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates at the September meeting to re-stimulate the economy rise and suggested that the Fed should cut rates by 50 basis points in September.

2024-08-22 Reserve Purchase CRV On August 22, according to monitoring data, decentralized stablecoin platform Reserve purchased $2.03 million worth of CRV (6.45 million tokens) through market maker GSR Markets in the past 6 days.

2024-08-22 Buy FLOKI CAT On 2024-08-22, the official announcement from FLOKI stated that the FLOKI DAO voted to invest $200,000 from the FLOKI treasury to purchase SimonsCat (CAT) Token as a strategic asset.

2024-08-22 Vertex Analysis Report On 2024-08-22, an analysis report detailed the market advantages of Vertex, including its hybrid trading model, EdgeCross-Chain InteractionLiquidity product, low Money Laundering, etc. The report believes that Vertex has innovatively solved the challenges of user experience and Cross-Chain InteractionLiquidity.

2024-08-21 Stacks security improvement On 2024-08-21, Zestprotocol announced its new Clarity Alliance audit team to improve Smart Contract security on Stacks. The team will provide better protection for the network, preventing malicious actors from exploiting the weaknesses of Stacks itself.

2024-08-20 ChainGPT Game Launch On 2024-08-20, ChainGPT will launch a unique game TapCGPT on Telegram, supported by CGPTToken.

2024-08-17 AstarToken Unlock On 2024-08-17, Astar unlocks 9.72 million ASTR tokens, accounting for approximately 0.14% of the current circulating supply.

2024-08-17 APEcoinToken unlocked On 2024-08-17, APEcoin unlocked 156 million APE Tokens, accounting for approximately 2.31% of the current circulating supply.

5. Global Policies

The following is a list of political dynamics, economic policies or regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry, as well as analysis of their impact on the industry and the market, based on news from 2024-08-16 to 2024-08-23:

1. US Senators urge Republican support for encryption legislation

News: U.S. senators say that 2024 will be the time window for encryption legislation to be passed, and some bills may still be passed this year. Senators are calling for more Republican support for the encryption industry than Democratic support, and may establish a digital asset committee to promote the passage of relevant legislation.

Impact analysis: If the US government is able to pass regulations favorable to the development of the Cryptocurrency industry in 2024, it will have a positive impact on the industry, helping Cryptocurrency gain wider recognition and adoption in the US. However, the specific legislative content and implementation details are still to be observed.

2. Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission Warns Against Fraudulent Activities Related to Virtual Assets

News: The Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong has warned the public to beware of a suspicious link called "ICE Global Professional Station", which is suspected of engaging in fraudulent activities related to virtual assets.

Impact analysis: The move by the Hong Kong regulatory authorities aims to protect investors from the harm of fraudulent activities related to virtual assets, which helps to maintain the healthy development of the Hong Kong cryptocurrency market. However, it may also affect investors' confidence in cryptocurrency to a certain extent.

3. Montenegro arrests co-founder of FutureNet, suspected of fraud involving encryption

News: The authorities in Montenegro have arrested Roman Ziemian, co-founder of the FutureNet project, which is suspected of stealing approximately $21 million through a cryptocurrency fraud scheme.

Impact analysis: This case once again highlights the fraud risks in the Crypto Assets market, which may to some extent affect investors' confidence in Crypto Assets. However, it also demonstrates the determination of regulatory authorities to combat Crypto Assets crimes, which is conducive to the long-term healthy development of the industry.

Summary:

Policy and Regulatory Updates mainly include the possibility of the United States enacting regulations favorable to the development of the cryptocurrency industry by 2024, Hong Kong warning against fraud related to virtual assets, and Montenegro cracking down on cryptocurrency fraud cases. These updates reflect the regulatory attitudes of different countries and regions towards the cryptocurrency market, with both supportive and protective measures against crime and investor protection. Overall, they are conducive to the long-term healthy development of the cryptocurrency industry.

6. Investment Analysis

6.1. Investment Recommendation

Please note that the above suggestions are based on current market analysis and are not financial advice. Investment carries risks, so please make decisions cautiously.

6.2 Investment Strategy

Hot Token Analysis this Week

According to the content of Part 3 of the document, this week's popular Tokens include DOGS, Simons Cat (CAT), PYUSD, etc. DOGS, as a new memecoin, has continued to rise in volume and attention under the promotion of community marketing and Airdrop activities. Simons Cat (CAT) is an NFTToken related to a well-known animation IP, which has received good attention since its launch. PYUSD is a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar launched by PayPal. It is issued by Paxos and provides a new encryption asset investment channel for institutional investors.

Trading Robot Strategy Analysis

Contract Grid Strategy efficiently profits from price fluctuations in cryptocurrencies by setting grid buy and sell prices. It is suitable for cryptocurrencies with high fluctuations, but also carries higher risks.
Spot Martingale Strategy diversifies risk through incremental scaling, suitable for currencies with moderate Fluctuation, and manageable risk.
Infinite Grid Strategy sets dynamic grids to continuously profit, suitable for currencies with relatively small Fluctuation and lower risk.
Intelligent Position Adjustment Strategy Automatically adjusts Position based on the Algorithm model, suitable for multi-currency investment portfolios with lower risks.
Spot Grid Trading uses a set price range for Grid Trading, suitable for medium Fluctuation currencies, with controllable risks.

Summary: Different quantitative trading strategies are suitable for different currencies and market conditions, and investors can choose the appropriate strategy based on their own risk preferences and market judgment.

6.3. Financial and Wealth Management Products

Simple Earn Simple Earn helps match users with idle assets and borrowing needs. After subscribing to Simple Earn, the system will determine whether the loan is successful and the Intrerest Rate of that hour based on the user's set lending Intrerest Rate and actual borrowing needs every hour. Successful loans can earn Interest for that hour. Users who fail to lend due to a high set Intrerest Rate and those who redeem funds before the hourly determination will not receive Interest.

The total amount of USDT in Yuebao is 1.046 billion, with an estimated Annual Percentage Rate of 2.63%+8.87%.

Financial Treasure The Wealth Management Treasure is a one-stop comprehensive wealth management service center established by Gate.io Finance, including current, fixed-term, and other all-round wealth management solutions, providing users with hundreds of types of Digital Money financial products.

Structured Financial Products Gate.io structured wealth management is a new financial product based on a combination of fixed income and financial derivatives such as Options. It is generally determined by comparing the performance of the underlying asset with the specified benchmark price during the investment period to determine the level of Settlement yield, and can be divided into two types: principal-protected and aggressive. Users can purchase products with specified investment periods based on their desired yield, Standard Money, etc. Generally, the principal and interest are redeemed at Settlement upon maturity and cannot be redeemed in advance.

4.市场Intrerest Rate

Note:

TradFi is TradFi's financing Intrerest Rate.
CeFi is the financing Intrerest Rate range of centralized Cryptocurrency financial platforms.
DeFi is the financing Intrerest Rate range of the Decentralization platform.
"-" represents no data.

Disclaimer: The above data is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is high risk, and investment should be cautious.

6.4. Bollinger Bands Technical Trading Strategy Backtesting Analysis

Bollinger Bands are a commonly used technical indicator that identifies potential Overbought or Oversold conditions by observing the position of prices relative to the upper and lower bands. This article will conduct a backtest analysis of the Bollinger Bands technical trading strategy and summarize its performance in the ETH market.

Backtest Settings

Initial principal: 100,000 USDT
Trading Pair: ETH/USDT
Trading Time Range: January 1st, 2023 to June 30th, 2024
Trading Rules:

When the price approaches or breaks through the upper rail, short ETH, Position20%
When the price approaches or breaks below the lower track, long ETH, Position 20%.
Bollinger Bands parameter settings: n=20, K=2

Backtesting Results

Final Yield: 18.76%
Maximum Drawdown: -22.35%
Annualized Volatility: 36.21%

Strategy Analysis

Yield Analysis
- Although the final yield is 18.76%, the performance of this strategy is mediocre compared to the increase in ETH (about 40%) during the same period.

This may be due to the lagging nature of Bollinger Bands as a lagging indicator, which leads to trading signals lagging behind price changes.

Risk Analysis

The maximum drawdown rate reached -22.35%, with higher risk.
- Annualized Volatility 36.21%, also reflects the high-risk nature of this strategy.

Operation Analysis
- The advantage of this strategy is simple operation, just follow the position of the price relative to the Bollinger Bands.

However, the disadvantage is that it may result in a higher number of transactions, leading to a higher Transaction Cost.

Summary

Although the Bollinger Band technical trading strategy is simple to operate, its performance in the ETH market is generally mediocre. This strategy carries higher risks, and the return on investment is difficult to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy. Therefore, in actual trading, it is necessary to combine other technical indicators and Fundamental Analysis to enhance the effectiveness and robustness of the strategy.

The above is an analysis and summary of the Bollinger Bands technical trading strategy based on backtesting results, for reference only. In actual trading, adjustments and judgments need to be made based on real-time market changes.

BTC-3.46%

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Last edited on 2024-08-23 10:34:01

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