The first market situation｜BTC Sideways consolidation, meme zone leads the market

According to Farside Investor data, the US SpotBTC ETF had a net inflow of 92 million USD last Friday, with net inflows of 26.1 million USD for FBTC and 22 million USD for ARKB. There were no inflows or outflows for BlackRock IBIT.

Last Friday, the US ETH Spot ETF had a net inflow of $2.9 million, with Grayscale ETH receiving an inflow of $2.9 million, and no fund inflow or outflow for other ETH ETFs.

Data: Over the past 3 weeks, network fees and ETH burn volume on the Ethereum network have surged, but the number of active accounts has fallen to the lowest level this year.

According to The Block data, the transaction fee of Ethereum (7-day moving average) has surged in the past 3 weeks. The latest fee (September 2021) is $3.52, more than three times the $0.85 fee on September 1st.

The rise of Money Laundering has also increased the burning rate of ETH. The amount of ETH burned has soared from 80.27 ETH on September 1st to 1,360 ETH on September 21st, a rise of 1600% in just three weeks.

However, despite the surge in trading fees and burning amount, the network activity (7-day moving average) has dropped sharply to the lowest level so far this year, a decrease of 11% from the data at the beginning of the month. Currently, the active data of about 385,000 accounts is the lowest value for the network since December 1, 2023.

Harris's first statement: If elected president, will encourage the development of the Crypto Assets industry

According to Bloomberg, Kamala Harris, the next US presidential candidate and current vice president, said at a fundraising event at Cipriani Wall Street in Manhattan:

"I will bring together labor, small business founders and innovators, and large companies. We will collaborate and invest in America's competitiveness, investing in America's future. We will encourage innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence and digital asset, while protecting our consumers and investors."

According to reports, this is the first time Harris has personally commented on Cryptocurrency as a Democratic presidential candidate.

This week's unlocking data overview: a total unlocking value of $101 million, OP, VENOM, and others will usher in a large unlocking

According to Token Unlocks data, the total value of token unlocks in the mainstream market in the next week will reach 101 million US dollars, including:

Venom will unlock 235 million VENOM at 16:00 on September 25th, worth about $25.55 million, accounting for 12.66% of the circulating supply;
Ygg will unlock 14.08 million YGG at 22:00 on September 27, worth about $6.5 million, accounting for 3.65% of the circulating supply.
SingularityNET will unlock 8.19 million AGIX, worth approximately $5.82 million, accounting for 1.63% of the circulating supply, at 8:00 on September 28th.
Ethena will unlock 14.89 million ENA worth about $4.3 million, accounting for 0.78% of the circulating supply, at 3:00pm on September 29th.
Optimism will unlock 31.34 million OP tokens worth about 55.47 million USD, accounting for 2.64% of the circulating supply on September 30th at 8 o'clock.

Market Analysis: BTC ETF resumes large inflows, meme zone leads the market

Market Hotspots

The public chain zone SUI surged, and the ecological project BLUB performed outstandingly; ETH and SOL performed flatly in this round of market, and the market began to speculate on other public chain projects. SUI's overall TVL reached a new historical high of $1.1 billion; The Solana Break Point Conference ended, and SOL's overall performance was average. The Solana ecosystem meme project POPCAT is approaching its historical high.
NEIROCTO, MOODENG, and TERMINUS in the Meme zone are pumping. TERMINUS is a meme concept mentioned by Musk for the Mars city. It surged nearly 100 times last week, so be cautious of the short-term pullback risk. Generally, the pullback of popular meme coins tends to be significant.
TAO, AI pump, and other AI leaders in the AI zone are showing a weak performance. The daily unlocking pressure of WLD tokens is suppressing price performance.

Market Trends

BTC oscillated narrowly between $62,000 and $64,000 over the weekend, with continued positive fund inflows into BTC ETF.
ETH returned above $2600, the overall increase still lags behind the market, and the market speculates about ETH's killer public chain;
AltCoins generally pull back during the market Sideways consolidation period, with strong performances from POPCAT, SUI, etc.;

Data Indicators

Today's AHR999 index is 0.72, the current BTC price is still suitable for long-term Auto-Invest; the fear and greed index is 50, the market sentiment is neutral, and the short-term market may continue to hold.

Macro Economy: The U.S. stock market fluctuates, the U.S. dollar big dump

The three major US stock indexes have fluctuated. The S&P 500 index fell by 0.19% to 5,702.55 points; the Dow Jones index rose by 0.09% to 42,063.36 points; the Nasdaq index fell by 0.36% to 17,948.32 points. Last week, the Dow Jones index rose by 1.62% for the week, the Nasdaq index rose by 1.49% for the week, and the S&P 500 index rose by 1.36% for the week.

The 10-year Treasury yield for Benchmark is 3.73%, while the 2-year Treasury yield, which is the most sensitive to the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate policy, is 3.55%.

Wall Street received a large rate cut as scheduled, but the market was unable to maintain a rebound. The Federal Reserve cut the key overnight loan Inrerest Rate by half a percentage point (50 basis points) last Wednesday. This is different from the first rate cut during the Fed's previous easing cycle and is contrary to the general expectations before the market began to digest a larger rate cut last week. However, although the stock market briefly pumped after the Inrerest Rate resolution was announced, it was difficult to further pump because investors were concerned that a larger rate cut would indicate a worsening of future economic weakness, even though inflation is close to the Fed's target of 2%.

Summary

Due to the continuous inflow of funds into BTC ETF, the price of BTC is expected to remain stable or even pump in the short term. Although ETH has returned above $2600, its increase is lagging behind the market. It needs to be followed whether it can narrow the gap with BTC in the coming weeks. The increase in ETH network fees and burn volume may provide support for the ETH price, but the decrease in the number of active accounts needs to be monitored.

In the next week, there will be a large number of Tokens unlocked, especially Optimism and Venom. These unlocks may create short-term selling pressure on the market, and it is necessary to closely follow the price fluctuations after the unlocks. Public chain zone and Memezone may continue to attract capital inflows, especially the strong performers SUI and POPCAT.

In addition, the trend of the US stock market and the Exchange Rate of the US dollar will continue to have a certain impact on the encryption market. The policy direction of the Federal Reserve and the global economic situation need to be followed continuously.

Overall, the market is currently in a relatively stable state, but there may be some fluctuations in the next week due to the large amount of token unlocking and macroeconomic uncertainty. Investors should closely follow the flow of funds into BTC ETFs, the dynamics of the ETH network, and the unlocking situation of major tokens. At the same time, pay attention to the performance of hot zones in the market and the impact of macroeconomic factors in order to adjust investment strategies in a timely manner.

Author: icing This article represents only the author's point of view and does not constitute any trading advice. This article is original, the copyright belongs to Gate.io, if you need to reprint, please indicate the author and source, otherwise legal responsibility will be pursued.