Daily Summary: ETH ETF Trading Sluggish, BTC ETF Outflows for Three Consecutive Days

According to Farside Investor data, the net outflow of the US SpotBTC ETF was 72 million USD yesterday, marking the third consecutive day of net outflows. BlackRock's IBIT saw an outflow of around 14 million USD, making it the second outflow day out of 160 trading days since the ETF was launched.

Yesterday, the net outflow of $1.7 million in the US Spot Ethereum ETF, with a net outflow of $5.3 million in Grayscale ETHE and an inflow of $3.6 million in Grayscale BTC.

Cboe submits revised BTC and ETH futures ETF options listing application

According to official documents, the Chicago Options Exchange (Cboe Exchange) submitted a revised application to regulators on August 28, hoping to list BTC and ETH ETF Options. The proposed rule change will classify SpotCryptocurrency ETF as well as commodity-based ETFs such as the physical gold ETF of Goldman Sachs and iShares Silver Trust as 'securities deemed suitable for Options trading'.

Grayscale ETHE has sold 31% of ETH so far

Renowned analyst Trader T posted on social media data analysis indicating that the amount of ETH managed by Grayscale ETHE decreased by 31% in 28 trading days, with a net outflow of $5.35 million yesterday. It is expected that ETHE will have a 50% outflow within 108 days (November 20), but the current market is not active and the volume is extremely low.

Analysis: Rainbow chart and five indicators including Relative Strength Index indicate that BTC has not yet peaked

According to Lookonchain's post on X, there are five indicators to observe whether BTC has reached its peak:

1. The Rainbow Chart is a long-term valuation tool that uses a logarithmic rise curve to predict the potential price trend of Bitcoin in the future. The new BTC Rainbow2023 chart shows that BTC is still cheap;
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI) Chart ≥70: BTC is in an Overbought state and may soon fall. ≤30: BTC is in an Oversold state and may soon pump. The current RSI is 61.87, which seems to indicate that BTC has not yet reached its peak compared to previous data;
3. The 200-week moving average heat map shows that the current price point is blue, which means that the price top has not been reached yet, and it is the time to hold and buy;
4. Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD), when the BTC price touches the green line, the BTC price is undervalued, indicating that it is a good buying opportunity at the moment. The current CVDD shows that the top of BTC seems to have not yet been reached;
5. The average annual line multiplier shows that the price of BTC is between the red and green lines. It has not yet touched the red line, indicating that the market has not yet peaked.

Market Analysis: Weak Shock of the Stock Market, Suitable for Long-term Auto-Investors

Market Trend

• Recently, BTC has been fluctuating unpredictably. Yesterday, the price of BTC briefly pumped to $61,000, but then fell back to around $59,000, showing the market's weak oscillation characteristics. In addition, BTC ETF has seen capital outflows for three consecutive days, reflecting investors' cautious sentiment.
• The price of Ethereum is still fluctuating around $2,500. Despite the high expectations before the launch of the ETH ETF, the actual volume is far below expectations, and there has been a net outflow of $5 million recently. This indicates that the market still holds a wait-and-see attitude towards the short-term prospects of ETH.
• The AltCoin market is generally falling, and it is currently a boring period in the market with no new narrative or hotspots emerging, resulting in a lack of market direction.
• The AHR999 index is 0.65 today, indicating that the current price is still suitable for Auto-Invest for BTC long-term supporters. The low level of this indicator is usually considered a good time to buy for the long term.
• The current fear and greed index is 34, indicating that the market sentiment is still in a 'fear' state. Investors are cautious about the future trend, and the market sentiment is relatively pessimistic.

Market Hotspots

1. TON Ecosystem: Despite the release of Telegram founder Durov, the price performance of TON remains relatively weak, and the future market is not optimistic. It is worth noting that the largest click game Hamster Kombat on-chain announced the issuance of tokens on September 26, which may bring some attention to the ecosystem, but the overall impact is limited.
2. Polifizone: In Polifizone, tokens such as MAGA and POEPLE have performed well, becoming one of the few bright spots in the market. The US government is expected to hold an encryption hearing in September, and there will also be a televised debate between Trump and Harris on September 10. These political events may lead to early market attention and speculation on related political concept tokens, such as Memes.

Macroeconomics: US stocks fluctuate, the Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September

The three major US stock indexes fluctuated, with the S&P 500 falling by 0.00% to 5591.96 points; the Dow Jones rising by 0.59% to 41335.05 points; and the Nasdaq falling by 0.23% to 17516.43 points. In addition, the 10-year US Treasury yield of Benchmark is 3.87%, and the 2-year US Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Intrerest Rate policy of the Federal Reserve, is 3.87%.

Among the popular US stocks, Apple rose by 1.46%, Microsoft rose by 0.61%, Nvidia fell by 6.39%, Google Class C fell by 0.67%, Google Class A fell by 0.66%, Amazon rose by 0.77%, Meta rose by 0.28%, TSMC rose by 0.08%, Tesla rose by 0.26%, and AMD fell by 0.59%.

Goldman Sachs Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions macro strategist Gurpreet Garewal said in a report that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, November, and December. However, she said that if next week's August employment report shows more signs of weakness in the job market, it may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates more aggressively by 50 basis points.

Summary

Overall, the market is still in a state of oscillation and observation. The trends of BTC and ETH reflect investors' cautious sentiment, while the lack of new hotspots in the AltCoin market has led to an overall decline. Although the AHR999 index and the fear and greed index provide some signals for long-term investment, the market still faces significant uncertainty in the short term.

In terms of market hotspots, although there have been some highlights in the TON ecosystem and Polifizone, the overall impact is relatively limited. Investors should continue to follow the upcoming market events and data changes, operate cautiously, and allocate assets reasonably.

In the current market environment, it is recommended that investors be patient and follow long-term investment opportunities, while closely following market trends and policy changes in order to adjust investment strategies in a timely manner.

Author: Icing This article represents the author's views and does not constitute any trading advice. This content is original and the copyright belongs to Gate.io. If you need to reprint, please indicate the author and source, otherwise legal responsibility will be pursued.