[TL;DR]:

Since October, prices of BTC and Ethereum have started to stabilize and rebound, driving strong pumps in zones such as MEME, AI, and DEP.

Recently, the DEP zone has turned red again, The Graph (GRT), AIOZ Network (AIOZ), IoTX (IOTX) and other performances are impressive.

The pump of the encryption market in recent times has shown characteristics that are significantly different from the previous weak rebound, which has provided more market confidence for more optimistic expectations in the future.

Introduction

After a long period of downturn, the crypto market finally ushered in a long-awaited Rebound. Since October, the prices of BTC and Ethereum have begun to stabilize and pump, driving the recovery of zones such as MEME and AI. We have also mentioned this in recent blog articles, and this article will review the overall market pump situation in recent times and look ahead to the future.

'October Effect' Self-verification, BTC's surge drives market Rebound

Recently, the crypto market finally got rid of the gloom of the downturn and ushered in a strong Rebound, with some even claiming it as a self-verification of the market under the "October effect".

Specifically, BTC price has been oscillating in a pump since September, but has always been constrained by the resistance level of $60,000. After entering October, the price began to continuously rise to around $68,000. As of the writing date, BTC pumped to the resistance level of the daily candlestick technical trend line, and once this resistance is effectively broken, the pump space will open up.

At the same time, ETH also rebounded, but as we have mentioned in our blog posts many times, the upward momentum is weaker than BTC. There have been signs of improvement recently, but it is not consistent. Currently, the highest rebound is around $2,700, and the strongest resistance level is $2,800.

With the stabilization and rise of BTC, altcoin zone has also begun to rebound, and the market, which has been quiet for a long time, has gained a rare breather. Among them, Meme, as the absolute market maker driving the Bull Market, still performs well in the zone, with Base Meme and Solana Meme having surged by as much as 17.9% and 12.7% respectively in the past 7 days. Popular tokens include BOME, TURBO, MEW, SPX, BRETT, DEGEN, etc.

In addition, emerging zones such as DePIN, DID, Fans Token are leading the market, with gains of 23.7%, 15.8%, and 8.5% in the past 7 days, while relatively niche zones like Cross-chain, Web3 infrastructure are also gaining attention from investors, with gains as high as 160.5% and 20.8% in the past 7 days.

In short, in the general rising market, market optimism is actively returning, and the market capitalization has also pumped from 2.148 trillion to 2.416 trillion in the past month, and the altcoin market cap is just one step away from the peak of the last bull market.

Interpretation of the new speculation clues in this strong zone

This bull run has given birth to new zones such as AI, DePIN, RWA, and DeSci, but overall, the MEME zone has evolved into a completely new and complex system, and is rarely affected by the overall environment and falls into a long-term downturn. The recent leading Rebound also reflects the dominant position of the MEME zone in the market.

Meme: This round of Bull Market MEME zoneToken's development trend presents a highly complex and variable characteristic that relies heavily on market sentiment and traffic. Starting from the popularity of PEPE last year, various public chain inscriptions appeared at the end of the year. In March of this year, there was a fever of Decentralization launch coins mainly represented by BOME and SLERF. Then, there were internet celebrities, cute pets, and vocabulary Memes such as MOTHER and MOODENG, as well as controversial Memes with the same name but different case styles, and the revival of cult-style Memes like NEIRO and SPX. It can be said that the evolution of on-chain Meme projects such as Ethereum, Solana, and Base has become more perfect, no longer the non-mainstream zone of the previous few waves of Bull Market fish-tail market.

DePIN: The concept of DePIN originated from a new concept proposed in the early 2023 by the leading industry organization Messari in its research report 'The DePIN Sector Map', which is defined as 'deploying real-world physical infrastructure and hardware networks using encryption economic protocol'.

Although the DePIN concept had limited popularity in the early stages after its proposal, with the gradual recovery of the Crypto market and the increasing interest of investors in the Web3 field, especially at the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival in April 2023, DePIN has begun to become a hot topic in the industry.

Starting from the second half of 2023, multiple DEP projects began to gradually land from the conceptual stage. Concept Tokens represented by Helium Mobile, Honey, etc., have performed outstandingly in the market, becoming one of the hottest tracks alongside inscription.

Recently, the DEP zone has turned red again, The Graph (GRT), AIOZ Network (AIOZ), IoTX (IOTX) and other performances are impressive.

As of the writing date, the total Market Cap of the DePIN zone reached 238 billion US dollars, and according to the research report of Messari, the market size of DePIN is expected to reach 35 trillion US dollars in 2028, so the potential pump space is still very large.

AI zone: Starting with the release of the generative artificial intelligence product ChatGPT in early 2023, the encryption AI field began to emerge, and zoneTokens such as Fetch.ai (FET), Near Protocol (NEAR), Worldcoin (WLD), etc. were hotly traded in the market.

By 2024, the continuous expansion of the AI market will drive the demand for infrastructure such as DePIN Network. Therefore, projects that gather decentralized CPU/GPU to support AI Computing Power, such as io.net (IO), Render (RENDER), Akash Network (AKT), have gained widespread follow.

In addition, BitTensor (TAO), Triathon (GROW), and others have made positive progress in the decentralization of data privacy, and their recent coin prices have performed well.

It is worth mentioning that, because AI launch coin can bypass real-world regulation, recently, MEME concepts such as TURBO and GOAT have been pumping one after another, indicating a more diverse and efficient development trend of the encryption ecosystem combined with AI.

Fan Token: Fan Tokens combine attributes such as MEME, Non-fungible Token, real-world adoption, etc., and are usually Cryptocurrency issued by teams, clubs, or celebrities, aiming to provide exclusive benefits to their fans.

As of the writing date, the zone market capitalization has risen by 5.8% in the past 7 days, with a total market capitalization of nearly 300 million USD.

Spot ETF continues to see net inflows, and the wide range of fluctuations is about to end

Looking back, behind this Rebound market, there are multiple factors of Favourable Information at work. First and foremost, Smart Money, which is closely related to the price trend, has provided us with clues. As the BTC market stabilizes with the support of mining shutdown prices, the trustee of Mt.Gox extended the repayment deadline for creditors to October 31, 2025, easing market concerns about dumping. As a result, some institutional funds have begun to flow back into the crypto market. In October, nearly 20,000 BTC flowed into the BTC Spot ETF, and funds have also gradually flowed into the ETH Spot ETF, highlighting the improvement in current market sentiment.

Of course, the Fed's interest rate cut policy is still an important macro factor affecting the rise in BTC prices. Interest rate cuts usually bring more liquidity, and investors are seeking high-return assets in this context. BTC, as a high-risk, high-return asset, has become a popular choice for capital inflows. However, BTC's recent pump is still within a wide range of fluctuations, reflecting the cautious attitude of users and institutions towards future market trends. They are looking for more powerful economic data and policy signals. In short, the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut policy on the market is still long-term and progressive.

In addition, the November presidential election in the United States continues to disrupt the crypto market. Trump has proposed using BTC or "crypto checks" to pay off the US national debt to avoid a debt crisis. Although this seems somewhat absurd, it has indeed boosted market confidence in Crypto Assets. In addition, current Vice President Harris has proposed to strengthen contact with black male voters by supporting a regulatory framework for Crypto Assets, offering more investment certainty to African American citizens who own or have owned digital assets. This news also has a certain boosting effect on the trend of Digital Money.

After the 'September effect' where it falls on nines, the 'October effect' where it rises on tens is very much anticipated.

As shown in the figure below, historical data shows that Bitcoin (BTC) usually experiences a strong seasonal pump in the second half of October. Currently, this seasonal pattern does provide some support for the price pump of BTC.

In short, the crypto market has shown characteristics in recent pump that are significantly different from the previous weak Rebound, providing more market confidence for the subsequent more optimistic expectations. We will continue to follow this.

Author: Charle Y.

This article represents only the author's point of view and does not constitute any trading advice.

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