[Love][Love] Weekend review, live at 19:30 [Love][Love]
In the first week of July, accompanied by the compensation of Mt. Gox, the exit of small team Miner, the German seizure and sale of assets, and other Unfavourable Information, the market has gone through a few thrilling days. BTC fell as expected to 53000 and then rebounded strongly to the 58500 resistance level (a retracement was already hinted at in the morning). Altcoin zones also saw 10-30% rebound strength. Since the ETF was approved, market trading has become increasingly inclined towards the U.S. session. Trading volume on Saturdays and Sundays has reached new lows in recent years. The true reflection of market supply and circulation status will only be seen after the U.S. session begins at 21:30. The main reason for the market's short-term selling and subsequent decline is still the lack of buying pressure. When Unfavourable Information is released, retail investors panic and cut their losses, causing the market to fall into panic. This is reflected in the imbalance of market supply during the Asian session. However, overall on-chain futures holdings have not declined, and long-term holders (Whales) have not sold due to short-term fluctuations. In recent days, BTC ETFs have also achieved the highest net inflow in a month. Judging from multiple dimensions, the recent decline and Unfavourable Information will not change the fundamentals of the Bull Market. The Bull Market is still ongoing, and the second phase of the Bull Market has not officially begun. The current market position offers far more opportunities than risks.
BTC is down 10%, up 80-120%, altcoin is down 10%, up 200-500%. This is a long-term high-risk and high-return position. Maintain the judgment at the end of June, and the overall market performance will be good in July and August.
【Market Analysis】The daily structure of BCH has formed a correction structure, with the overall daily structure maintaining a flag consolidation. The long Lower Shadow Pinbar formed on Friday indicates strong buying support at the bottom. However, the sell-off by Mt. Gox and Germany is not over yet, and next week's two speeches by Powell and inflation data such as CPI will affect the market. There are two possible trends to consider:
One: There is an 80% chance that BTC will Rebound above the 59000 resistance level in this round, confirming the bottom at 53000 at this time. After that, the small-scale retracement in the future will not break the new low. After the consolidation and bottoming, a new pump trend will start. The small-scale retracement support is at 55000-56000.
Two: 20% probability, if BTC bounces back from the resistance level of 58500-59500 and fails to break through, it will pull back. After falling below the support range of 55000-56000, it will undergo a second round of pullback to the strong support zone of 52000-53000, with a maximum dip to 50000. After that, it will start the daily uptrend.
I prefer the first trend, with an 80% probability, BTC will not break the new low in this consolidation, and will start a new pump trend after forming a bottom structure. Currently, altcoinzone has 10-30% room to the low point, and it will not break the bottom in the future.
【About interest rate cuts】From Powell's last speech, it is mentioned that inflation has been effectively controlled. The next step for the Fed is more inclined towards the labor market. From the recent employment data, both the unemployment rate and non-farm payroll have shown weakness in the US employment data, with downward inflation and weak employment, unable to support a high-interest-rate market. The probability of an interest rate cut in September has been enhanced. The latest research data from last night indicates that the probability of a rate cut by the Fed in September may have surged to 71.8%. Once the interest rate is cut, there will be a continuous influx of cautious funds into the market, which will help fuel the Bull Market.
【About ETH ETF】I am optimistic about ETH. With the successful confusion of retail investors with smoke bombs and the panic clearance of the downturn, many retail investors have handed over their chips again, achieving their desired goals. Recently, seeing Whales constantly sweeping goods also verified the previous smoke bomb predictions. I believe that ETH ETF may be implemented at any time in the next 1-2 weeks. Many submission forms will be released on the 8th-12th. The short-term target is 4000 and the long-term target is 6000, unchanged.