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The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting suggest that they are unlikely to cut interest rates later this month. In fact, it is already the second half of 2024, and the Fed is simply unwilling to cut interest rates: The minutes of the Fed meeting show that the vast majority of officials believe that the US economic growth is gradually cooling; most participants believe that the current policy stance is restrictive; the Fed is waiting for 'more information' to gain confidence to cut interest rates; some participants said that policies should be prepared to respond to unexpected economic weakness; several Fed officials said that if demand weakens, the unemployment rate may rise. The three major US stock indexes closed mixed overnight, with the Dow falling by 0.06%, the Nasdaq rising by 0.88%, and the S&P 500 rising by 0.5%, with both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 hitting new closing highs. Most popular tech stocks rose. The cryptocurrency market is down across the board, with Bitcoin breaking below $60,000 and Ethereum falling to around $3250.




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This morning, the Fed's meeting minutes released hawkishness again, forcing the currency price to experience another setback and test the support level of the neck area several times, but there was no substantial breakthrough of the support level of 58350/3220. Looking at the hourly chart, it is currently above MA5, and there is some room for rebound in the short term. The 4-hour RSI is gradually moving away from the oversold zone, and the overall indicators are being repaired. However, judging from the daily trading volume, we do not expect the strength of the upcoming rebound. The current main trend is still downward, and the resistance level of the rebound around $61500/3380 should be followed!



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From the current overall market structure, today's consecutive decline and long wick candle retraced the recent uptrend, directly piercing through the midline and lower line, and the speed of the price drop was very rapid. Although there was a corresponding rebound space after the bottom exploration in the evening, the current downward movement has disrupted the overall trend, and the overall weak structure is evident. The previous uptrend was all reversed within a day, and the trend structure clearly leaned towards the weak phase. The evening decline broke through the low, forming a new low level. The trend structure has rebounded from the previous low level, and the short-term rebound is currently seen as a time and space conversion for subsequent decline. Therefore, for the future layout, we should focus on the resistance above and layout short positions.