This is something I have been discussing openly for some time, but today I want to reconfirm that evidence suggests that there may be significant trends and emotional changes in the BTC and broader cryptocurrency market between August 6th and 12th.

A few months ago, I mentioned this time period for the first time in the video outlook, which you can find here.

Today, I will show all the evidence gradually established based on the time range, price range, and time perspective. I think you will see a high probability of significant events or news occurring within this time window.

We will start from the monthly chart and go all the way to the daily chart to show the convergence of multiple factors we see.

The monthly chart is the content we focused on following last week, but to further prove that we are in the same cycle, we have also included the months of the previous two tops. As you can see, the previous two cycles are almost identical to the current cycle. The 33 months from the major high point and the 20 months from the major low point both place us in the timeframe from July to September, which is the last low point before a significant pump.

Now we know that time is on our side, but many people believe that this cycle is different because prices have quickly reached new all-time highs. However, let's compare the current cycle with previous cycles on the monthly chart.

The evidence is quite shocking. As you can see, except for 2012, in the first two cycles, the price pumped just over 200% from the Bear Market low, which is exactly where we are now. As you can see, this time is no different. In fact, time and price are where they should be, neither overextended as some commentators have said, nor exceeding expectations.

Next, let's look at the weekly chart, and there is more long content to discuss. First of all, we found that there will be a major trend change every 30 weeks in this cycle. Interestingly, this 30-week cycle falls exactly between a major low and a major high, and they occur simultaneously. I will explain the reason in the next few charts, but for now, the next 30-week cycle falls exactly on the week of August 12th. These three 30-week cycles add up to a total of 90 weeks from the Bear Market low point.

Now, based on our evidence, this market is in a different stage, in my opinion, inflection point is more likely to occur in the form of a major low rather than a major high. But as I have always said, in these cycles, we often see a major high and low in this time window at the same time.

The chart below shows this particular period in each cycle and the situation at the same time last year in this cycle. As you can see, there is almost always a sharp pump in August, followed by a rapid decline, with a drop of up to 20-50%. Last year, it was different from the other three charts as it was only in the second year of the cycle, but it showed the seasonal characteristic of this type of trend occurring in August.

It also demonstrates that significant highs and lows occurred near the turning point of the market in a 30-week cycle, with a relatively tight time window.

Now let's take a look from a time perspective. Simply put, the time perspective refers to starting from a significant high or low point and calculating 30 calendar days, and looking for trend changes. You just need to start with 30, and then add 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180, and so on, and look for trend changes at these time points. The more concentrated the time points, the higher the importance of that day or week.

As shown in the chart below, all these time measurements fall within a time angle window. In this cycle, we have several major highs and lows that point to the second week of August as a major convergence period.

Finally, from the perspective of the time range, the market has always followed a cycle of 150 days in this cycle: 155 days of pump and 150 days of consolidation. It is worth noting that the balance of market time should not be imbalanced. That is to say, the number of days the market falls should not exceed the number of days of pump. In a Bull Market, the time of market pump is usually longer than the time of decline, as shown in the chart below. If the number of days the market falls exceeds the previous 150 days and new lows appear, this will not be a good sign.

Finally, taking into account the price range, time frame, timing, and seasonal factors, we are approaching a mid-August window that is very likely to become a trigger point for BTC. If this evidence is not sufficient, please note that the start date of the BTC chart is August 19th. I won't dwell too much on this issue, but the birth date is important, and August is typically the start of a major bull market.

This is why I remain cautious here and wait for the end of this window before taking more aggressive action. Will we see ETH ETF finally begin trading, followed by a rapid decline like BTC ETF? Or will we see more uncertainty caused by long political headlines leading up to the election? I'm not entirely sure what it will be, but it's definitely a period worth following and being patient with.