Is July the start of a bull market or the beginning of a bear market? Here are my thoughts. First, in terms of time cycles, it would be most reasonable for a major bull market to start in July. After all, if it continues to consolidate, the time cycle would be unreasonable. I believe a four-month consolidation at a high level is the limit. Second, there has been a rising flag consolidation, with a fakeout below the lower boundary. A fakeout below indicates a true rise, and it continued to rise until 72,000. It seemed like a breakout, but then there was a fakeout, which resulted in a true fall, down to 58,000. Currently, it has not fallen below the support, so we can expect a rebound. Third, a necessary condition for the start of a major bull market is to reclaim the 120-day moving average. Personally, I hope it can achieve that in July, and everyone will be happy.