When you have time, let's chat. Generally speaking, before the market starts, it can be quite agonizing, especially when there is still uncertainty and divergence in the market funds regarding certain major events. What everyone is waiting for now is the U.S. presidential election.

Having played with coins for 8 years and experienced two major election markets, I have written about the previous trends. The short-term coin price will undergo significant fluctuation, but the views of the two candidates on cryptocurrency have been proven to have little impact in the long run based on historical facts.

But now, this time is different. In just a few years, these politicians have undergone a 180-degree turnaround in their attitude towards BTC, which is truly incredible. Many friends are interested to know, regarding the two candidates, who will be elected, what impact will it have on the short-term trend of BTC?

First of all, I still believe that the price of BTC will continue to pump. The core logic is the interest rate cut, which will lead to capital inflow. The flood of capital will not come in all at once, but every interest rate cut meeting will steadily push up the prices of various assets.

Take a wild guess, I tend to think that Trump will be elected because he openly supports the development of Crypto Assets and believes that the dominance of BTC, as the world's number one cryptocurrency, should be in the hands of the USA. With Musk's support, if he is elected, hot money will flow into the crypto world, and BTC is likely to quickly break through new highs. It is estimated that it will reach 100,000 by the end of the year, at the latest, early next year.

If Harris is elected, it will not hinder BTC from breaking through the new high, just that the time may be delayed, and it is guessed that it will be the interest rate meeting in March or April. Why judge this way? After all, the Democratic Party also accepts the development of Cryptocurrency. The last round of new highs and BTCETF, ETHETF were also passed during the Democratic Party's governance. So logically, there should not be a big dump like a black swan, but the price may pull back significantly, clean up those uncertain chips, and then rise directly. Dealers like this routine very much and are good at manipulating these scripts. It is estimated that the smart money of various projects has long designed response plans.

The market isn't really concerned about who is elected, what they care about is certainty. Only when a lot of information becomes clear, will the observant funds fire the final bullet. I also keep 20% Position to wait and see what will happen.

These days, the market fluctuates sideways, indicating that it is still a stock market. As the bull market transitions from the early stage to the middle stage, the market has already absorbed the initial capital influx, but the enthusiasm is insufficient, and there is no subsequent influx of speculative capital, only stock eating stock. The market in January 2021 is very similar to the current situation. When Mainstream Tokens are stagnant, there will be a sharp drop, triggering a big dump of altcoins, thereby consolidating stock funds into Mainstream Token funds, essentially relying on consuming existing funds to strengthen themselves. The trend of BTC at the beginning of this year also replicated this pattern. After the adjustment is completed, it relies on the rise of BTC to attract incremental funds to return, and then continues to reach new highs.

In the middle and late stages of the Bull Run, it is generally a fervent incremental market. Why is it mentioned separately, because the feature of the incremental market is the overall universal rise, just a matter of who rises more and who rises less. It is different from the stock market, which depends on whether it is universally rising, and the incremental market does not need to rely on stock to eat stock, but to eat subsequent increments. Although at a certain point in time, it seems that the Mainstream Tokens have risen a lot like they are running out of fuel, it does not need to plummet and crush other AltCoins, as long as the incremental funds keep up, it can still maintain, at least it will not plummet. Of course, this Bull Run will not see a universal rise.

Because the amount of funds in this round of the Bull Market is insufficient, the sudden pump broke the pattern and reached a new high, causing a 7-month whipsaw. Both the elderly and the newcomers have been suffering, to the point where many people have lost patience and confidence, and are doubting whether there is still a Bull Market. Looking back at the market since March, apart from BTC's outstanding performance, the rest have been lackluster after some hot spots, even hitting new lows. This kind of whipsaw method has never appeared in the history of the crypto world. In the September update, it was discussed that this Bull Market might be a slow bull, and a slow bull with a large amplitude of fluctuations, making the process more tortuous and bumpy. From the current trend, the slow bull is very unfriendly to retail investors and is more likely to make them lose money because most losers lose due to psychological and informational asymmetry.

So why is it still recommended to keep confidence? It's still the most core logic, interest rate cuts. If you observe carefully, the recent market data, when BTC retraces, some strong currencies have started to not fall with it, which is actually a signal, and BTC.D is still maintaining the range of 59%, which indirectly proves that now is indeed a good time to choose and layout AltCoins. There will be interest rate meetings in November and December, so now we have to wait and see if this is a fuel booster or a Black Swan Event.

Just sit tight if you've already entered a position, but I wouldn't recommend it if you haven't. A few days ago, a fren and I analyzed that BTC would fall below 40,000 again. When I asked him how he came to that conclusion, he told me that the BRICS countries have restructured their currency settlement system through protocol, abandoned the Americans, and the world order is shifting eastward while declining in the West. The dominance of the US dollar is bound to collapse, and BTC's depth tied to the dollar is bound to run into trouble...

Ignoring whether the logic is correct or not, is there a probability of a pullback to 40,000? There is, I think the probability is less than 5%, but even if it pulls back to below 40,000, it cannot be caused by what he understands. Frens who have such ideas probably watch too much Douyin, always liking to watch some influential national bloggers there. Admittedly, these videos are enjoyable and exciting to watch, but they don't help your life and Wallet at all.

As an ordinary person, I also love my country and hope that our country will become better and better. However, the law of economic development always requires a process and accumulation. It cannot develop by shouting slogans and getting excited every day. I prefer to respect objective facts, appreciate the strengths of others, straighten out my own affairs first, and manage my own accounts well. As for the overall situation, just take a look at it.

Funds account is your own territory. I suggest everyone to make money in this bull market, but first protect the principal. Regardless of the final profit, I suggest you carefully prepare a response plan and respect every transaction. When buying, remember to think about when and at what price to sell! Don't get too excited when it goes up, don't panic when it pulls back! And don't be tempted to do swing trading or contract trading by being greedy and acting recklessly!

In a bull run, buy falls and not rises; in a bear market, sell rises and not falls. Those who want to make quick money and get rich overnight in the cryptocurrency circle are highly likely to have unsatisfactory results. This is the law of nature. Of course, the premise is that you need to believe in the law of nature and cause and effect. If you don't believe, there's nothing I can do...