Long-term holding of good assets will have two aspects: one is to earn money within cognition; Another is that money is often likely to be non-linear, beyond what everyone initially realizes. (Synopsis: Pro also dares to move!) Who was WhaleCZSamSun, who stole 12,000 WETH? Related to the sacred fish? (Background added: More BTCMining Rigfall broke the shutdown price, the fish shouted "opportunity is coming again", what did he see?) This article is compiled from E2M Research's space "Conjectures and Rebuttals" every Friday. The book "Conjectures and Rebuttals" has taught several keynote speakers of E2M Research a lot, and we hope that reading books is not only limited to reading, but also can apply their good ideas to practice and even our own investment cases for verification. As we believe: there are many things in the world, not black and white, there are many "third-party ideas" that encourage us to constantly look for better explanations, encourage everyone to make bold conjectures together, actively refute and carefully seek evidence. The recent market rally is good, how to hold good assets for a long time? How to Heavy Position after selling? It is worth discussing again, and the guests also exchanged discussions through their own industry experience. Full Audio: Key Points Sacred Fish Twitter @bitfish1 The dimension of a good asset is based on the current cognition to make a long-term judgment, if its development curve and future rise trend and key inflection points have been met in the present, it will be put into the basket of good assets and compared with other assets. Finally, the core question is how to hold good assets for a long time after discovering them? Hold, the core point that needs to be emphasized here is not the rational level, but more of the psychological level, so we need to set up some methods and rules when we are still rational to ensure that we can maintain relative rationality when we are in a fomo state. How to build this trap architecture? Here I have to mention the trap "Position Management Method", which needs to divide the asset pool into four pools: The first is cold Wallet, which is mainly used to hoard coins, creating various obstacles that make it difficult for you to reach, and putting core assets in it, about 60% of the assets will be put in. The second is Wen Wallet, the so-called Wen Wallet This trap system is mainly used to manage assets, and can provide cash flow relatively safely and steadily, allowing us to provide a more stable mentality in an extremely pessimistic situation, about 20% ~ 30%. The third is hot wallet, which is mainly used for consumption, using speculative assets to try and make mistakes, to do product trial experience, to provide experience for future judgment of whether it is a good asset, about a few percent of the asset size may even be less. If this wallet really becomes larger because of speculative consumer assets, immediately classify it as warm wallet or corresponding cold wallet. The remaining one is Fiat CurrencyWallet, where a small principle is the 4% principle: 4% of the asset size in Fiat CurrencyWallet is equal to the annual expenditure. Assuming that the previous wallets suffered an accident, the fixed deposit interest or treasury bond interest generated by Fiat CurrencyWallet can basically cover daily life, which can basically be said to be living reserves and isolated assets. Zhen Dong Twitter @zhendong2020 If you hold Crypto Assets or TSL now, you need to understand more about models like complex systems evolution or nonlinear rise and innovation diffusion. Because in today's Internet age, we can see that the speed, efficiency, and cost of information dissemination or knowledge dissemination are exponentially higher than they were a few decades ago. A very important reason that prevents many people from holding good assets is that most people now have a wrong perception of long-term holding, or the biggest enemy of long-term holding of good assets is the enthusiasm for short-term trading, and many people will mix long-term holding and short-term trading. What does Popper say is the most important? The most important thing is more intellectual humility. How to analyze what makes a good asset? We should constantly make positive expectations and good investment decisions, which have long-term compounding, rather than doing the useless work of repeated screwing. Humility means knowing that mistakes can be made, and constantly changing and adjusting once you realize that you have made mistakes. Odyssey Twitter @OdysseysEth There are two key points to holding good assets for a long time: one is recognized, and the other is called long-term. Cognition is divided into two cognitions: one is rational cognition, and the other is emotional cognition. How did you meet? What is constructed at the time of buying will also be effective at the cognitive level and at the emotional level when it is sold. How to build it when you buy it? This is the question of how to understand good assets. The process of cognitive construction will have several points, and all of them will play a role when selling. The first point is not to ask those early assets, because they have not sold the tipping point, if they do not understand at the beginning, they will naturally not touch, and they will not sell later. If you have passed the critical point when you enter, your energy will be more focused and your understanding will be very deep when you look at it again. The second point is to think and verify monopoly in multiple dimensions. If it is bought because of a monopoly, then the reason for selling is only that the monopoly disappears or a better monopolist appears. This symmetry can be constructed, and understanding the monopoly process will make us richer in understanding the needs of users and the overall potential market, etc., and this process will bring a lot of rational construction and emotional construction. There are two aspects to long-term holding of good assets: One aspect is to earn money within cognition. If you think clearly about the long-term product roadmap at the beginning, and you have also reached the long-term product roadmap, should you sell it at this time? Not necessarily, some people can indeed earn this part of the money, but the unlucky part of the people will not earn money outside of cognition. On the other hand, money is often likely to be non-linear, beyond everyone's initial cognition, as an investor to be able to bear this part of the surprise, do not need to start 10 years ago limited rational brain to predict the future, but to be able to construct this asymmetry to undertake future benefits. How to inherit the benefits of the future? After owning an asset, you can recognize its characteristics, recognize it as a good asset, and believe that it can be better than you think. How about a heavy position after selling? In fact, it is more of a psychological problem, of course, including cognitive problems, the cognitive aspect is equivalent to if it is with the monopoly to increase the position, on the basis of this mentality, then naturally will not care whether the previous price is high or low, because with the increase of monopoly The position has long been decoupled from the price at this time. The key to going back to Heavy Position is that it has been sold, and it is very painful for almost everyone to correct the mistake. Many people think that investment is just investment, but it is not, and there is an implicit desire to prove oneself or solve the current problems of life. Many times to make a good investment decision, you must first solve this layer of desire or the psychological problem behind it. If you are initially wrapped up in some kind of strong desire, it is difficult to make rational investment decisions. Q、Why did you set up a trap system for position management? I have counted some of the more important decisions I made in trading, and the win rate is only 40% or less than 45%, so later when I make major decisions, I will write a decision log, analyze the various situations at that time and my emotions at that time, and then analyze the cognition of the development of the world, the future judgment of this event, why I made such a decision and whether I will regret it, and come back to review it in six months or a year. ...