BTC 24-hour price short-term prediction

Author: MarsBit, Lucy

The price prediction in this article is based solely on the retrospective analysis of Bitcoin trading data from the past 24 hours and the fundamental of the contract within the past 12 hours. The conclusion is for reference only and does not provide any price implications. DYOR.

Current market background

Price: $95,729, the market fluctuates in the range of $94,000 - $96,500.

Long-short ratio: 0.72, the advantage of the bulls is weakened, and the strength of the bears is enhanced.

Liquidation data: 104 million US dollars, the main explosion of long orders.

Funding rate: -0.0004% to 0.03%, close to neutral, slightly bearish.

CME Gap: $94,600 (Friday's closing price), which could attract a price dip.

Data Source:

Data interpretation

1. Long/short ratio: 0.71

The long-short ratio has dropped to 0.71, indicating that the short position is significantly dominant (the short ratio is about 58.5%, and the long position is only 41.5%). This indicates a shift in market sentiment towards bearishness, with significantly weakened bullish confidence and increased short-term selling pressure.

2. Funding Rate: -0.0004% to 0.03%

The funding rate remains close to neutral, with slightly negative to slightly positive, with negative values (e.g. -0.0004%) supporting a slight advantage for the bears, but not reaching extreme levels, indicating that the leverage build-up is not severe.

3. Current price: $95,729

4.CME Gap: $94,600 (Friday's closing price)

Data Source:

Technical Analysis

1. Daily level: The middle rail of the Bollinger Bands (about $96,900) is suppressed, the MACD momentum is weak, and the short-term trend is bearish.

2.4h/1h level: $95,729 is below the $96,600 pressure level, and a test could be lower in the Asian session without volume support.

3. Key points:

Support: $95,400, $94,200, $93,500

Resistance: $96,600, $97,500

Speculation on liquidation data

Short order liquidation area: $97,000-100,250 (needs to be triggered by breakout).

Liquidation zone for long positions: $95,100-$93,750 (current long/short ratio of 0.71 indicates vulnerability of long positions, breaking below may accelerate liquidation).

The long/short ratio of 0.71 shows that the bears are dominant, and if the price goes down, it may trigger more long positions.

Possible price scenarios for the next 24 hours (until 12:00 AM on February 25, 2025 UTC+8)

1. Decline to the bottom (probability 50%)

Price range: $93,500 to $94,600

Reason: The long/short ratio of 0.71 indicates that the bears have a significant advantage, the market sentiment is bearish, and the selling pressure is increasing; A break below $95,400 (secondary support) at the current price of $95,729 could trigger a long liquidation in the $95,100-$93,750 range and a test of $94,200 or $93,500; The slight negative funding rate supports the bears, and the CME gap ($94,600) is attractive to strengthen the downside momentum.

Trigger conditions: Short selling volume in the Asian or European period, or the long/short ratio further drops to below 0.6.

2. Neutral oscillation (40% probability)

Price range: $94,600 to $96,600

Reason: Although the long-to-short ratio is 0.71, the funding rate is not extremely negative (still between -0.0004% and 0.03%), the leverage pressure is limited, which may restrict the decline; the price may probe down to $94,600 to fill the CME gap, then consolidate in the $94,600-$96,600 range, and the bulls may attempt to defend the low.

Trigger condition: The trading volume has not significantly increased, and the market tends to stabilize after digesting short selling pressure.

3. Breakthrough rebound (10% probability)

Price range: $96,600 to $98,500

Reason: Although the long-short ratio of 0.71 is bearish, if the funding rate turns positive (such as 0.03%) and is accompanied by a bullish counterattack, $95,729 may break through $96,600, triggering the liquidation of short orders; With the current bears dominant, a strong catalyst is needed for a rebound (such as good news), and the likelihood is low.

Trigger conditions: sudden good news, or the long/short ratio quickly rebounds to above 1.0.

Time zone factor (UTC+8)

Asian Session (11:57 a.m. to 20:00 p.m.): The current long/short ratio of 0.71 indicates that Asian trading may be weak, and the downside risk is high in the absence of a bullish counterattack. European session (after 20:00 p.m.): European funds may exacerbate the bearish trend or trigger a repair rally at the lows. American session (after the early morning of the next day): A short-term rebound is possible if it falls to support.

Based on the above, the overall market signals show that there is a 50% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $94,000 within 24 hours, and a 40% probability that Bitcoin will fluctuate around $95,000-$96,000. In general, it is unlikely that it will break through $98,000 within 24 hours, so please do a good job of risk control.