With cryptocurrency once again in the limelight, investors will need to know when to start getting worried as prices rise rapidly.

Judging from historic records and price action since 2013, the crypto market probably still has more time left to inflate into a bubble territory and reach unsustainable levels.

The only question that remains unanswered is which event will trigger the next bear run (likely to begin in 2025).

In this story, we humorously explore the actual indicators that signal the peak, signs that are often overlooked or misunderstood despite being easily noticeable.

Forget the unreliable technical analysis you see on YouTube and Twitter since most so-called “experts” are just guessing.

The market today is one step before the final push with a parabola set to take place.

The stars have aligned once more, but as we expect the prices to surge, we should also brace ourselves for the inevitable price collapse that is bound to happen.

In a nutshell, our sole goal is to recognize euphoria and exit in profit before the upcoming bubble bursts.

The ride might be thrilling, but the key to winning this game is knowing when to get off with gains intact!

Past Successful Predictions

In 2022, I published two stories outlining key indicators that accurately predict the bottom, and my predictions were flawless, with every single indicator playing out as anticipated.

In this story, we predicted more downturn, and indeed with just 3/10 indicators in place, prices continued to decline throughout the year.

In December 2022, 8 out of 10 indicators signaled an entry point, and by 2023, the remaining two indicators emerged, leading to a significant market recovery. While many were panicking, others took advantage of the downturn.

When most were panicking, others were buying the blood on the street.

Contrary to the prevailing sentiment, I’m here to guide you on when to start worrying about your crypto investment. A new story will follow as soon as indicators start flashing red. So, while I’m definitely not predicting the top just yet, it is wise to be prepared for what’s ahead.

So, without further ado, here are the top 10 indicators to watch out for when the new bubble is about to burst, and it’s time to hop off the hype train.

The Top 10 Indicators Of The Market Peak

1. Crypto Massively Promoted On TV

TV shows, financial news, and websites will suddenly develop an interest in cryptocurrency.

The intensity of reports on cryptocurrency prices will intensify.

However, beyond the factor of speculation, actual adoption is minimal, with only a handful of cryptocurrencies pursuing realistic use cases and targets.

When mainstream media coverage intensifies, it’s a red flag. This often signals that the market is overheating and could soon collapse, especially as the increased publicity attracts a surge of new investors.

Entertainment shows with little financial insight will start discussing cryptocurrency, as it becomes a trending topic that attracts viewers.

The crypto bubble will not last for more than two or three months after it becomes mainstream again.

We’ve seen the same happening in 2013, 2017 and 2021. It will be the same again in late 2024 and early 2025.

We’re not in the hype phase yet, so watch for increased media focus before becoming concerned.

2. Celebrities And Influencers Endorse Cryptocurrency En Masse

Celebrities and social media influencers consistently act as counter-indicators when it comes to their dubious financial endorsements.

I published my thesis on this topic in early 2021, analyzing the events of 2017 (though much more unfolded in the following years):

Celebrities and Crypto — A Recipe for Disaster

Leo Messi, Kim Kardashian, Paris Hilton and more!

medium.com

There is little difference between celebrities and influencers in terms of their impact on cryptocurrency prices and the projected results of their promotional activities.

Besides Twitter, TikTok, and Instagram, you’ll also find top Twitch streamers promoting dubious cryptocurrencies and platforms.

These endorsements will occur around the market’s peak, and most of these top-tier streamers will not even disclose their compensation for these promotions but faint genuine interest.

The common thread among celebrities, influencers, and streamers who will suddenly start promoting cryptocurrencies is a complete lack of understanding of the reasons cryptocurrencies exist.

3. Scams Increase

Traditionally, when any market gets closer and closer to its peak, scams will be overflowing every aspect of it.

Scammers will maximize their efforts and crypto worth billions of dollars will be liquidated into fiat currencies, taking out of the market a large percentage of funds and delivering blows to the market’s liquidity.

All kinds of scams will emerge, such as cloned websites of exchanges, extensive phishing campaigns, and fraudulent projects or Ponzi schemes that exit and make a run with billions of dollars.

4. Google Trends “Buy Crypto” Indicator

It used to be “Buy Bitcoin” but not anymore for several reasons that we will not examine in this story.

The key point here is that this chart lags by a couple of weeks. It does not reflect the current interest in crypto but is roughly a week behind the actual interest.

Here’s the chart and how to interpret it:

When we spot a parabolic upward trend like the one in 2021, this is great news for those already invested but signals high risk for new buyers.

This is the nature of this market, and you decide which side you want to be in.

At this stage, the chart indicates that early investors reap rewards while newcomers undertake significant financial risks.

The mania phase is the time to sell, not to enter into dubious financial decisions.

While in euphoria you have to be trigger-happy and act quickly and decisively.

Selling strategies can vary, yet fully exiting an investment may not be ideal on most occasions.

5. Retail FOMO

Massive retail FOMO is a reliable indicator of market peaks.

Fear of missing out is human psychology leading to poor investment decisions.

FOMO is “shortable” but proceed with caution as the markets can remain irrational for extended periods.

6. Prices Surge At Surreal Levels (Awaiting The Parabola)

You all know you should avoid buying this:

Yet, right at the top volumes always peak.

This is when most of the potential investors (usually the target demographics of retail investors) will be buying.

Meanwhile, smart money that bought in earlier will be cashing out abruptly but also silently as all the news and publications they control will still appear favorable.

7. Crypto Becoming a Social Status Symbol

Owning crypto becomes a symbol of social prestige.

You’ll see people wearing crypto hats, clothing, and accessories, in social media.

When crypto starts to be seen as fashion, it often means that the market is driven by social sentiment rather than fundamentals, signaling a potential peak.

Crypto is certainly not a symbol of social prestige so when it abruptly becomes one, be ready to “dump it”.

8. Exchanges Suffer Outages

During periods of increased market activity, major crypto exchanges will experience outages due to the vast number of users trying to use their websites at the same time.

This kind of surge in activity occurs near market peaks when everyone is rushing to either buy or sell.

While this indicator signals that the market may be overextended, it alone does not mark the beginning of a bear market but should be considered alongside other indicators.

9. The Cycle Position

The halving is what sets the timer, and it would be improbable the bull run to end so soon. It takes 12 to 18 months before the positive effect of the halving clears out.

Prices can change abruptly to the upside in an instant and the parabola can begin anytime in the remaining four months of 2024.

In between, prices can crash at any point as well, yet these crashes will meet a quick recovery which is a sign that the parabola is almost certain.

Every bull run so far has had these moments that scare investors off their investment at an early stage. Exchanges make billions out of volatility, so flash-crashes are unavoidable.

The bear market is not even a thing right now, it is almost impossible for 2024, despite the lower profitability each of the market cycles presents as it reaches its limits.

Most likely, Q1 2025 is when all of these indicators we discuss here should be sounding the alarm.

In case you found this story to contain low value and not entirely professional advice, there is one more solid indicator you should never overlook:

10. Your Hairdresser Bought Crypto

I have no issues with any profession, and a hairdresser is an important one, but hey, look, if you missed all of the rest indicators, if you can’t see you are living in a bubble, your hairdresser will be the last and only indicator you will ever need.

So, as prices keep going up for an extensive time frame, remember to pay your hairdresser visits often, like once per month.

However, it has to be your hairdresser who begins this discussion, otherwise, the indicator does not guarantee results.

Conclusion

Here’s another one of my predictions (2021) that materialized:

After the top, Bitcoin will crash dramatically and another two-year bear market arrives.

The parabolic trend looks to be over, if it keeps going it will be over the next time, but I don’t see it.

I see a top being settled and not reached again perhaps until 2024.

— Pantera (03–03–2022)

Relying on a single indicator is not sufficient to make you feel uncomfortable with your crypto investment.

Typically, we need a combination of indicators to raise alarms.

Yet, the final indicator (10) has the potential to act as a major alert on its own.

Also worth noticing is that none of these indicators signal the market stands at its peak right now. While most likely there is a bubble, there is still a lot of room to grow before it bursts.

None of the above indicators is flashing red at this point.

We have 0/10 so there’s almost no odds of the bull run stopping here and the parabola not occuring.

Once you spot most or all of the indicators materialize, it will probably be too late already, so try to be careful about which crypto influencers you follow.

Don’t start worrying yet but make sure to study actual indicators that will direct you towards reasonable investing.

Right now we watch all of the dips getting filled, interest slowly rising and none of the above indicators flashing sell.

However, being extremely confident is probably the eleventh indicator I overlooked. So, despite all the analysis and signs we might observe, things can go wrong at any given time and there’s not much we can do about that besides managing our risk effectively.

Disclaimer：

1. This article is reprinted from [The Crypto Kiosk], All copyrights belong to the original author [@panterabch?source=post_page-----8f9ad79a9278--------------------------------">Pantera]. If there are objections to this reprint, please contact the Gate Learn “Gate Learn”) team, and they will handle it promptly.
2. Liability Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not constitute any investment advice.
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