Daily News | BTC Returned to Above $102,000, LTC ETFs May Be the First to Be Approved

Crypto Daily Digest: Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow exceeded 600 million, LTC ETF may be approved before SOL and XRP

According to Farside Investors data, US Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of $621 million yesterday, of which BlackRock IBIT had a net inflow of $523 million, Ark ARKB had a net inflow of $155 million, and Grayscale GBTC had a net outflow of $70 million.

Yesterday, the US Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of $166 million, of which BlackRock ETHA had a net inflow of $111 million and Fidelity FETH had a net inflow of $70 million.

Bloomberg analyst: LTC ETF may be approved before SOL and XRP

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said on social media, “To be clear, I think it’s only a matter of ‘when’ rather than ‘if’ that Solana or XRP ETFs are approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), but the Litecoin ETF may be approved first - mainly because the SEC has not accused Litecoin of being a security.”

In addition, Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, also said, “The Litecoin ETF now meets all the conditions, and the first Altcoin ETF in 2025 is about to enter the countdown. I don’t see any reason to withdraw the application, especially since the SEC has commented on the S-1 document, Litecoin is considered a commodity, and the SEC has new leadership.”

As previously reported, Nasdaq submitted a 19B-4 filing application for the Canary Litecoin ETF, initiating the regulatory review process.

XRP Futures Open Interest Hit All-Time High at $7.7 Billion

According to The Block, XRP’s gains were driven by several important factors, with Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, highlighting the main drivers. In an interview, Lee pointed out that the potential for more favorable progress in Ripple’s legal proceedings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is a key catalyst, and the upcoming change of leadership at the SEC may promote this progress. He also noted that the broader political climate in the United States is becoming more friendly to cryptocurrencies.

The XRP derivatives market has also experienced unprecedented activity, with key indicators showing a significant increase in trader interest and bullish sentiment. According to Coinglass data, the open interest in XRP futures on all major crypto derivatives exchanges increased by 22.66% in the past 24 hours to a record high of $7.7 billion, with Gate.io holdings of $1.655 billion. This is the highest level since the analysis company began tracking such data.

Complementing this trend, the weighted funding rate of XRP perpetual futures open interest has shown a positive growth, highlighting the market’s bullish sentiment towards the cryptocurrency. Over the past 8 hours, the funding rate of XRP perpetual futures has hovered around 0.01%. This rising rate indicates a clear bullish sentiment as traders are willing to pay a premium to maintain their long positions.

Opinion: Three major indicators show that Bitcoin has not yet reached the top of the cycle

Analysts at crypto asset management company 21Shares said several “on-chain” indicators show that Bitcoin has not yet reached its cycle peak and has room to go higher. However, compared with previous cycles, the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 and increased institutional participation in the crypto market may also have changed the behavior of some key indicators.

Analysts pointed out that currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio is between 2.5 and 3, indicating that a local high may occur, but it is still far below 7, indicating that the main cycle top has not yet been reached. Only when the price of Bitcoin exceeds $200,000 can its MVRV ratio reach 7.

As Bitcoin trades near $100,000, its unrealized net profit and loss has been ranging between 0.5 and 0.75, indicating a potential sell-off opportunity. However, analysts say that only when the unrealized net profit and loss reaches 0.75 can it indicate a kind of euphoria or greed, indicating that the market has peaked.

When Bitcoin hit its all-time high in mid-December, the sell-side risk ratio for long-term Bitcoin holders, a measure of the extent of investor profit-taking compared to previous market cycles, was around 0.4%. On-chain analysts tend to believe that the market is overheated when the ratio approaches or exceeds 0.8%.

Market Trends: XRP hit a new record high, AI Agent sector generally pulled back

Market Hotspots

The well-established payment protocol token XRP broke through $3.3 and hit a new record high. The circulating market value of XRP reached $190 billion, and the total circulating market value was $333 billion. The time cost of holding well-established coins such as XRP is extremely high, and most holders may have liquidated their positions in the continuous decline in the past few years. Although according to the news, XRP may be approved by the spot ETF, its current market value is too large, and the total circulating market value is close to ETH, so it may no longer be suitable for buying;

The public chain SOL rose and returned to above $210. The well-established public chains LTC and EOS also rose. From the news perspective, SOL rose because Trump considered including it in the US strategic reserve, and LTC applied for an ETF, which stimulated market buying.

AI Agent leading currencies such as VIRTAUL, AIXBT, and COOKIE all fell back, and the sector generally fell back; AIXBT fell to around $0.36 at the beginning of this week and then rose all the way to a record high of $0.95. The favor of funds has verified its status as the leader in the track; VIRTUAL’s circulating market value is too large, and the short-term upside may be small. Other tokens in the VIRTUAL ecosystem such as AIXBT and GAME are more worthy of attention;

Mainstream Coins

BTC returned to above $102,000, BTCD fell 1%, and the Altcoin market showed signs of a general rise;

ETH is still in a range of fluctuations and has not rebounded sharply with BTC. ETH’s performance in this round continues to be sluggish;

Altcoins generally rose, and even the well-established public chains LTC and EOS started to rise, and market funds returned to a greedy state.

Macro News: The three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively, and the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January reached 97.3%

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively, with the S&P 500 down 0.21% to 5,937.34 points, the Dow Jones down 0.16% to 43,153.13 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.89% to 19,338.29 points. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.61%, and the 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, was 4.23%.

Fed’s Waller said that the CPI data for December was “very good” and if there were more data like this, “we could see a rate cut in the first half of this year.” Waller said he did not think the possibility of a rate cut in March could be ruled out. If inflation goes down, the Fed’s rate cut may be stronger than market expectations.

Previously, strong employment data and the many uncertainties brought about by the upcoming new government have repeatedly cooled investors’ expectations for the Fed’s interest rate cuts in 2025, while the previously released inflation data has brought a hint of warmth to the market. On January 15, local time, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the core CPI in December 2024 rose by 3.2% year-on-year, compared with 3.3% in the previous month, and core inflation finally showed a downward trend.

According to CME Federal Reserve Watch data as of that day, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January remained at 97.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 2.7%; the probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged in March was 70.1%; the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points was 29.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points was 0.7%.